SG Wealth Builder

From hero to zero. Investment guru Warren Buffett recently saw his wealth eroded by billions of dollars after Apple share price plunged in value.

Widely regarded as the Godfather of Investments, Warren Buffett is revered by numerous global investors for his god-like investment acumen. Being a value investor, Warren Buffett showed the way how to make money from stock market through value investing. In short, he is not afraid of going against the herd when it comes to investing.

However, Warren Buffett’s shock purchase of Apple shares, through Berkshire Hathaway, is considered bizarre because it ran against his contrarian principle. Where is the safety margin and mitigations for downside risks that our guru always preach?

Over the years, Warren Buffett had made a number of poor investment judgements that proved costly to Berkshire Hathaway investors. Among the worst mistakes should be funding the acquisition of General Re through issuance of Berkshire Hathaway shares. That was a whopping USD 70 billion misjudgement.

In this regard, it should be noted that Warren Buffett do make major mistakes. Thus, investors should not blindly follow what he invests in. Always remember that as a retail investor, you are not in the same league as the big whales.

Being one of the tech heavy-weights of Nasdaq, Apple share price had taken a severe beating in recent months after a magnificent run that saw Apple becoming the first USD 1 trillion company in United States. Shortly after that impressive feat, Apple share price lost steam unexpectedly as the stock plunged from a high of USD 230 in October 2018 to USD 145 recently.

Would Apple share price strike back in style or continue to spiral out of control? 2018 turned out to be a revelation for Apple share price as it hit the skid shortly after reaching the epic high in October. The roller coaster ride of Apple share price must be giving investors plenty of sleepless nights.

Man proposes, God disposes

It doesn’t help that Apple got off to a poor start when CEO Tim Cook announced it would lower revenue guidance for Q1FY2019 on the first working day of 2019. Following the shock announcement, Apple share price got roiled.

Among the biggest institutional investors is Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway owned 252,478,779 of Apple shares. The roil in Apple share price caused billion of dollars of capital loss for Warren Buffett. Ouch!

Although investors are sweating over the volatility of Apple share price, the management appeared to shrug off the upheavals in the stock market as it continued to launch a slew of new products in 2018 that saw the company breaking new grounds.

Can SingPost share be your ticket to financial freedom or is it a value trap in the making? Perennially seen as a dividend counter, SingPost stock should have many supporters. But reality started to sink in for investors as SingPost share price plunged to a 10-year low recently.

On 28 December 2018, SingPost share price was trading at the level of $0.90, a complete disaster as the counter saw a massive correction of almost 30% since the start of the year. Indeed, the devastating spell of run for SingPost share price must be giving investors plenty of sleepless nights.

Defending SingPost share price

A reassuring note to SingPost investors is that the management religiously conduct share buy-backs throughout the year. Since January 2018, a series of share buy-backs saw the treasury shares rising from 9.3 million to 21 million in December 2018. The share buy-backs had provided much support for SingPost share price, which could have suffered a worse form if not for the share repurchases. Obviously, the case for SingPost share price is not unique as numerous counters were affected by the recent market sell-offs. But for SingPost, the correction started long time ago. In January 2015, the shares were trading at a sky-high of $2.14.

On 26 December 2018, SPH share price plunged to a record low of $2.33, a terrifying level not seen even during the dark days of The Great Financial Crisis in 2009. Given the devastating spell of run, investors must be sweating whether to run for their lives or buy on the dip.

And then there may be investors who are tempted to enter this counter on the premise that this could be a value stock in the making. For this group of investors, they must realize that fundamentally, SPH don’t make money from selling newspapers.

Traditionally, the media giant derives its revenue from selling advertising spaces. In this regard, the emerging challenges posed by social media and digital platforms are giving SPH a serious run for its monies. For SPH, revenue from print advertisements had been declining for the last few years. On this basis, whether SPH can stay relevant in this new digital economy would really depend on management’s execution in transforming its businesses to embrace digitisation. It is now or never. For sure, the management is not fighting fire with fire. Rather, the strategy is to diversify revenue sources, with a focus in property investments. I guess as an institution, SPH carries the burden of promoting literacy among Singaporeans.

Apparently, the fierce winter has lasted longer than expected as SingTel share price hit the skids. On 17 December 2018, SingTel share price plunged to an outrageous 7-year low. The last time that SingTel shares were trading at such price level was in 2011.

In my previous article on this counter, I predicted SingTel share price to nose-dive to $2.60. While this nightmare scenario has not materialized (yet), the current SingTel share price bring little cheers for investors.

It has been an awful year for investors as SingTel share price suffered an explosive 19% correction since the start of the year. The rapid decline caught many analysts and investors by surprise. On the basis of the current run, it seems certain that this counter would enter 2019 in bad shape.

SingTel share price see red!

All hell broke loose for SingTel share price after the announcement of 1H results which saw SingTel recording a massive drop of 60% in net profits. Excluding the divestment of NetLink Trust in 2017, underlying net profit fell 21%, due mainly to lower contributions from Airtel and Telkomsel, and a stronger Singapore dollar against the regional and Australian currencies. With such a report card, investors wasted no time in punishing the stock.

When Alibaba Group got listed in NYSE in 2014, the IPO was considered an earth-shattering event among investment community. At that point, the market valued the e-commerce conglomerate at a staggering USD231 billion. While many investors salivated at the massive prospect of Alibaba Group, it is important to pay attention to the downside risks as well.

With a name based on legendary folklore, Alibaba Group’s rise to global prominence is nothing short of fairy-tale. Widely touted as the China’s answer to Amazon, can Jack Ma’s team fulfil their destiny?

A whole new world

Indeed, Alibaba Group share price didn’t fail to live up to its initial hype, surging from strength to strength to reach the incredible height of USD210 in June 2018. Back then, the sky is really the limit for this e-commerce giant as investors cheered the berserk run of Alibaba Group share price. Immense wealth has been created and many people became insanely rich overnight as Alibaba Group share price stormed to unchartered waters.

The recent trade war between United States and China has installed some form of sanity on Alibaba Group share price. But then again, will this trade dispute be able to hold the leash on the charging form of Alibaba Group share price for long?

Investors of City Developments Limited (CDL) can be forgiven for punching the wall. From a high of $13.50 in March 2018, CDL share price collapsed to the current dismal level of $8.23. Out of nowhere, CDL share price suffered a devastating train wreck, causing many investors to lose their pants. What has gone wrong with this leading light of SGX?

As one of the biggest real estate developers in Singapore, CDL share price has withstood the test of time and has weathered numerous property cycles through the decades. This time, I am absolutely convinced it will be no different. With market capitalization of $7.6 billion, CDL is certainly one of the largest components among the prestigious Straits Times Index (STI). This means that CDL share price is extremely prone to fluctuations because short-sellers are likely to target the shares when Singapore property outlook turns sour. The 5-year beta of 1.125 vindicates CDL share price volatility. Of course, you can make money out of this stock but in my opinion, CDL share price remains an enigma to me.

If you look back, CDL share price went on a spell-binding bull run in 2017, surging from $8.30 in January 2017 to almost $13.00 in December 2017.

It is a battle that Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg can ill-afford to lose. In July 2018, Facebook share price suffered a brutal decline, falling from USD218 to USD172. The devastating plunge of Facebook share price wiped out at least USD140 billion market capitalization from Facebook’s valuation. The frightening meltdown was largely attributed to its poor Q2 earnings and also a series of bad news. Since then, Facebook share price never looked back, continuing to roll down the slope.

For a social media giant like Facebook, its stock performance will always be measured by revenue growth. Indeed, for Q2’18, the revenue was an impressive 43% increase year-on-year. Thus, widespread concerns over its slowing growth had been grossly misplaced and blown out of proportion. For Q3’18, Facebook continued to achieve great revenue growth, recording 33% increase year-on-year.

Apart from its outstanding earning performance, another significant investment merit of Facebook is that it has zero long-term debts. For a technology company, this is indeed a very unique advantage because it does not need to leverage to fund its growth and investors do not need to worry about insolvency issues for Facebook. To put the icing on the cake, Facebook’s business is also very cash generative, with free cash flow (FCF) of USD 4.1 billion and cash and cash equivalent of USD 9.6 billion in Q3’18.

Crisis? What crisis? In a year in which numerous SGX blue chips retreated to multi-year lows, Sheng Siong share price defied gravity and went on a rampant bullish form. The surprise form of Sheng Siong share price confounded many critics, including myself. How did the management achieve such feat against the backdrop of market correction?

Since IPO price of $0.33 in 2011, Sheng Siong share price had been surging in recent years and even smashed a record high of $1.18 in August 2018. The selling point for Sheng Siong is that it does not have any debts and the business model generates much cash flow. These drivers caused Sheng Siong share price to be immune to market uncertainties. Given the bullish form, should investors enter this counter or is it a value trap to avoid?

In response to my previous article, “From pork seller to CEO of Sheng Siong”, a member wrote an insightful view of Sheng Siong. I found his perspective refreshing and therefore decided to publish his reply (with his consent). In this article, I will also provide some updates and views in relation to the member’s reply.

Member’s view on Sheng Siong share price

Would it be the case that NTUC Fairprice and Dairy Farm are pricing their products at a premium increasingly and Sheng Siong seems to be more “co-operative”?

As the year-end festive season approaches, investors of Singapore Airlines (SIA) have little to cheer about as SIA share price plunged to epic low of $9.17 on 30 October 2018. The last times that SIA share price was traded at such abysmal level were during the 2001’s terrorist attacks in United States and 2003’s SARS outbreak. Both events were black swan events that affected the industry immensely and changed the aviation landscape forever. But hey we are not having any crisis now, aren’t we?

As one of the major components among the prestigious Straits Times Index (STI), SIA is one of the biggest blue chips in the stock market. But investing in this leading light of SGX is not so straightforward as challenging operating environment and industry shifts make this stock highly unpredictable.

Given that SIA is the pride of our nation, can investors really sleep well with its stock? Are there any dark forces behind the recent meltdown of SIA share price? In this article, I will share my insights on the prospects for SIA share price and also explain why the ROE has always been terribly low.

Big boys fled SIA shares?

A review of market data on institutional funds revealed an ominous trend for SIA share price.

On 4 December 2018, Dow Jones crashed 800 points due to concerns over the intriguing trade wars between United States and China. The devastating decline in Dow Jones wiped off billion of dollars from the stock market as investors ran for their lives. Evidently, the spectre of a recession looms large, casting a dark shadow on Wall Street as investors are not convinced of the trade tariffs ceasefire.

The latest stock market rout came as Dow Jones emerged from a black October in 2018 which saw Dow Jones plummeted from 26,800 to 24,400. The massive decline of Dow Jones must have freaked out investors new to the game. But then again, it is important to note that Dow Jones had one of the longest bull runs in stock market history, surging from 7,000 points in 2009 to a high of 26,600 in January 2018.

Obviously, what goes up must come down. Investors must brace themselves for such corrections and avoid making rash moves that could result in losses. Indeed, it turns out that 2018 is a year of revelation as Dow Jones had experienced serious bouts of corrections.

On 5 February 2018, US Dow Jones plunged nearly 1,200 points, the biggest single-day decline on record.

Is this the best window of opportunity to enter First REIT? The unit price of the health-care service provider had taken a severe knock after crashing 16% from 15 to 20 November 2018. Such devastating decline is unheard of among S-REITs and perhaps, illustrated a strange dark chapter for First REIT.

For sure, First REIT is widely regarded as one of the most established S-REITs and possesses a proven track record of solid distributions. First REIT was listed on the SGX mainboard on 11 December 2006. Since IPO, the unit price of First REIT had experienced an explosive bull run, surging from an IPO price of $0.53 to a peak of $1.47 in 2015.

Even with the recent correction, long-term investors should be laughing all the way to the bank because of the mighty unit price appreciation and the long history of distributions paid out.

Notwithstanding the above, many investors should be having difficulty sleeping well at night as unfolding events threaten to derail the growth prospects for First REIT. Out of nowhere, First REIT unit price suffered an unexpected train wreck. Should investors start running for their lives? Or should investors stay put and hope for a windfall from a potential fire sale by major shareholder, Lippo Karawaci?

Despite being hailed as the world largest listed rubber supply chain manager, Halcyon Agri is ironically seldom covered by stock analysts in Singapore. In recent years, the company had experienced quite a massive transformation that saw them being acquired by China big boy, Sinochem. As a result, total revenue rocketed from $635 million in FY2014 to an amazing $2.66 billion in FY2017. Nonetheless, Halcyon Agri share price suffered a serious loss of form recently. What on earth has happened?

In investing, the key to winning is investing in companies with top market positions because you would want to invest in companies with competitive advantages and investment moats. Halcyon Agri has certainly positioned itself well by becoming the biggest listed rubber supply chain manager. But this does not mean that this counter is low-risk. On the contrary, the volatility of Halcyon Agri share price had been giving investors plenty of sleepless nights in 2018.

As a commodity supply chain player, Halcyon Agri share price can be vulnerable to the volatility of commodity prices. What this means is that market timing is important. So, you must set appropriate entry and exit strategies to avoid losing your pants.

Profile of Halcyon Agri

Halcyon Agri’s business model is unique because it not only procures raw natural rubber from smallholders to feed their processing facilities, the company also owns about 122,000 hectares of rubber plantations in West Africa and Malaysia.

From a high of $1.86 in early 2018, PRC-based Yanlord share price suffered a severe decline to reach a startling low of $1.29. The crash of Yanlord share price is particularly mystifying given that it came on the back of a consistently solid financial results over the last 5 years.

Is the current Yanlord share price reflecting the true value of the real estate company or is the God of Wealth playing a trick on investors? To be frank, the issue facing Yanlord is not company-specific. Rather, the whole S-chip industry is currently suffering from a crisis of confidence among investors.

Loss of faith in S-chips

The lack of confidence in S-chips is not new and has been a well-known recurring problem in Singapore stock market for the past decade. It had been a devastating period of time as investors had lost much wealth when errant S-chips either went into financial difficulties or were “creative” in their accounting. As a matter of fact, the SGX Watch-list is littered with so many dead S-chips while there were cases of S-chips embroiled in corporate scandals.

Recent move by SGX regulators to require new S-chips to have cornerstone investors or state-owned enterprise brings cold comfort to investors as well.

Golden Agri Resources holds a special place in my heart. This is the only blue chip which I tried to trade and subsequently lost $1200 in a single day more than 10 years ago. I can still remember that raw feeling when cutting losses on this counter. At the end of the day, I knew that I had made a mistake and decided to move on. Incidentally, Golden Agri Resources share price hit a low of 10 year recently. So I decided to initiate a review on this palm oil producer.

On looking back, losing money in stocks is never a good feeling but I had gained a lot of valuable lessons. Firstly, I had mentioned that there is no such a thing as good or bad stocks because in life, there are only flawed or right strategies.

At that point of time, I suffered losses on Golden Agri Resources because I had not done sufficient homework. I had failed to see that Golden Agri Resources operate in a cyclical industry and the shares are therefore prone to volatility. If I had held on the stock for a few more years, I would have enjoyed substantial capital gain because Golden Agri Resources share price had ridden on the wave of high crude oil prices and surged to new highs.

Call it sheer madness or whatsoever. Within the span of two days, Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) share price plunged by nearly 50%. Investors with weaker hearts might have suffered serious heart attacks watching in horror at the meltdown of Asian Pay Television (APTT) share price. After all, you don’t often get to see value of business trusts being eroded by so much in a matter of days. Well, that’s investing in SGX stocks for you.

In my previous article, Asian Pay Television Trust dances with the wolves, I wrote that investors should “hope for the best but expect the worst”. I was also bearish on this counter as I was not convinced that the management had the ability to turn around the trust. My view was that the unit price would come under further pressure. Recent Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) share price vindicated my thesis.

As the saying goes, cheap things don’t come good and good things don’t come cheap. When a business trust is trading at such abysmal level, the price level may not represent value. There are investors who insisted on accumulating more units of Asian Pay Television Trust instead of cutting losses. Well, they had better be sure of what they are buying into.

Another day, another market correction. The recent stock market performance must have freaked out many investors new to the game. Long-term investors and financial bloggers should be having great difficulties sleeping well at night as their stock portfolio plunged in value. Should stock investors run for their lives and turn to bonds like Frasers Property Bond and CapitaMall Bond?

In the pursuit of investment returns, many had ignored the age-old wisdom of wealth diversification. In this article, the investment merits of retail bonds (Frasers Property Bond and CapitaMall Bond) and government-linked bonds are discussed.

Dark side of bonds

Most wealth builders dismiss bond investing because of the perceived low yields and illiquidity. Furthermore, investing in bonds is less exciting than stocks, which is comparatively more dynamic. In my perspective, I am not a big fan of bonds either because I am currently at the asset accumulation life-stage. However, as a fixed-income asset, bonds could offer a viable form of financial instrument, especially for retirement planning purposes.

In 2018, Temasek Holdings decided to join in the fun by offering the Astrea IV Private Equity Bond (4.35%) and the Temasek Retail Bond with 2.7% interest. The difference between the two is that the former is not guaranteed by Temasek Holdings or its subsidiaries while the latter is guaranteed by Temasek Holdings.

The past is history and the future remain a mystery. Would Sembcorp Marine continue to fulfil its destiny as the world no.2 oil rig builder or would it collapse in style? Sembcorp Marine share price is set for a roller-coaster ride as the company faces yet another explosive full-year loss for FY2018. The last time Sembcorp Marine reported an annual loss was in FY2015, which saw it recording a massive loss of $289 million.

For sure, the winter had lasted longer than expected. It has been four years since Sembcorp Marine share price was trading at $4.00. Currently trading at $1.66, Sembcorp Marine share price is a shadow of its former self.

Although Sembcorp Marine is operating in a cyclical industry, there is no guarantee that the share price would restore to its heyday form. Should investors throw in the towel or keep faith with the management? In my view, I fear the worst for Sembcorp Marine share price if things do not improve in the coming quarters because of its grim financial data. In this regard, investors should brace themselves for a potential meltdown of Sembcorp Marine share price.

A whole new world

On looking back, 2018 has proven to be another false dawn for Sembcorp Marine as recovering oil price has not revived the global demand for new oil rigs.

Since my last coverage on 28 March 2018, OUE share price had a devastating spell of run. Share price nose-dived from $1.80 to a shocking low of $1.37. After being walloped left, right, centre, OUE share is currently trading at a stunning 14-year low. Even during the dark days of The Great Financial Crisis, OUE share price had never crashed to such abysmal level. What could have happened?

A quick look at OUE shares revealed that the average 3-month volume stood at a mere 0.33mm. This means that OUE shares are thinly traded and may present some form of liquidity issue for long-term investors. In addition, despite having a market capitalization of $1.23 billion, this counter is seldom heavily shorted over the past three months. This means that even the big boys cannot be bothered with this real estate giant. Is OUE a value trap for retail investors?

Troubles come in troops

In all respect, 2018 has proven to be a mighty difficult year for most real estate developers in Singapore. The increase of Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) to 12% and the tightening of loan limits had dampened demand for investment properties.  Of course, the unexpected cooling measures knocked the wind out of many listed property developers’ share price.

Against the backdrop of market correction, the share price of numerous Singapore blue chips have retreated to new lows over the past one year. But one shining stock stands out among the sea of red. Of note-worthy, iFAST share price runs against the turn of tide and continues to be bullish despite headwinds in the market.

And I am still slapping myself for missing this multi-bagger as iFAST share price went on a majestic bull run since mid-June 2017. The stunning pace of iFAST share price caught many investors by surprise. Can iFAST share price continue to run? A lot will depend on how the management write the next chapter of growth for this enigmatic listed company, which has a lofty ambition of hitting $100 billion group asset under administration by 2028.

The attractive aspects of iFAST are that it is debt-free, has strong cash-flow and a scalable business that thrives in good times and bad times. Apart from Singapore Exchange, I struggle to find similar stock with such traits. In addition, iFAST has managed to reinvent itself successfully through significant capability enhancements recently. Henceforth, this article will examine whether iFAST share price is a good buy at current price level.

Being the only listed casino operator, Genting Singapore stands out as a rare breed of billion dollar enterprise among the pantheon of banks, GLCs and Reit counters in Singapore Exchange. Current market capitalization is $11.4 billion, while liquidity for this counter is also excellent, with average 3 month volume of 32.33 mm. Genting Singapore is also crazily rich, with $4 billion cash on hand. Given such pedigree, it certainly makes sense for investors to invest in Genting Singapore shares.

However, since the start of the year, Genting Singapore share price has corrected by 30%. The plunge in Genting Singapore share price had given investors a wild ride, not least plenty of sleepless nights. Indeed, it had been a turbulent period for Genting Singapore as it had to retrench 400 staff in 2016 as a result of regional economic slowdown and bad debts problem. Should investors run for their lives or hang on for their dear lives?

While the past has been a treacherous journey for Genting Singapore investors, the future could be an exciting one as the casino operator prepares its bid to enter Japan, the world’s third largest economy which recently just legalized gambling.

In my opinion, Genting Singapore share price is currently trading at attractive level and this could be an interesting counter to invest because of the huge positive catalyst for Genting Singapore share price.

Nowadays, it is not surprising that many of the blue chips in Singapore Exchange suffer from poor stock performance because of the global headwinds and challenging operating environment. But this is certainly not the case for SingPost share price, which plunged after the announcement of 40% decline in net profit for Q1FY18/19.

Upon the release of the financial result in August 2018, investors sent SingPost share price reeling from $1.38 to as low as $1.03. Till now, SingPost share price has not recovered its form and is on course to retreat below the $1.00 mark. Should investors run for their lives?

Before writing this counter off, it should be noted that Alibaba’s Jack Ma is a major shareholder of SingPost, with stake amounting to 14.5%.

Question now is: will Jack Ma buy over SingTel’s stake of 21% in SingPost? Given that Alibaba’s stakes were bought in two tranches – 2014 and 2017 – at SingPost share price of about $1.40, the current valuation seems attractive for a surprise buyout. In life, never say never. Just look at M1 buyout offer by Keppel and SPH a couple of weeks ago.

Those who enter at current SingPost share price should be betting on potential Alibaba’s acquisition but a lot actually hinges on whether SingTel wants to unlock value through the divestment of stake in SingPost.

As an investment blogger, I think every stock deserves an unbiased coverage, no matter how good or bad the business or management performs. Thus, it is with an open mind that I decided to initiate a review on the investment merits of Imperium Crown, a Catalist-listed company that is based in Singapore.

Although Imperium Crown falls under the radar of many stock analysts, its story is nothing short of intriguing. Those who have invested in this counter would have a roller-coaster ride as the share price plummeted from $0.14 to $0.03. The stock would have been put under the SGX’s Watch List long time ago if not for the fact that this ruling is not applicable for Catalist-listed stocks.

When you have a stock trading at crazily cheap level like Imperium Crown, you do not know if there is any value left in the shares. After all, cheap does not equate to value. When investing in companies, there is a need to identify their competitive edge and then assess if the business fundamentals provide the sound basis for investments.

For investors of Imperium Crown, they would look back and lament that it is almost a case of a successful turnaround as management had engineered a brief success in a very niche market.

On 11 October 2018, Wall Street ripped the world apart with Dow Jones plunging by 832 points. Local stock market index, Straits Times Index (STI) took the cue and fell by 84 points. The sharp decline marked the sixth consecutive day of losses for local stock market. Overall, it was a sea of red for SGX stocks.

The chaos in the market came on the back of new legislation by Monetary Authority of Singapore to report short selling activities. The move is aimed at reducing significant market disorders and improve transparency. Effective 1 October 2018, short sellers are not only required to disclose to SGX their short sell orders, but also to MAS if they hit the short sale threshold.

Whether the new policy would be effective in curbing the big boys’ movements remain to be seen. But I reckon the data collated would be helpful in allowing the authorities to do data analytics and make timely interventions during market chaos.

STI down syndrome

Since the start of October, STI has dropped by 200 points. At the rate of decline, STI appears to be on course to retreat below the support level of 3000 level. Is it the right time to buy SGX stocks now?