SG Wealth Builder

Since my last coverage on Noble Group in December 2017, things have taken a turn for the worse. In fact, the on-going drama is so bad that its good. Why is there any good out of this corporate tragedy if you may ask? In my opinion, there are plenty of hard lessons that investors can gain from the downfall of Noble Group.

From a former multi-billion blue chip darling as recent as 2015, Noble Group has shrunk to a mere $188 million listed company. Novice investors who are new to the game should avoid this counter if they are not unaware of the series of events that had unfolded on this counter. Indeed, there had been so many twists and turns to the Noble Group drama that one wonders if the latest alliance between Goldilocks and Noble Group is just another false dawn in the making.

Due to the volatility of Noble Group share price, existing shareholders should exercise caution on whether to dollar average their holdings or cut losses.  This article is only for information and not meant to induce or serve as a form of financial advice.

Holding shareholders to ransom?

In my last coverage, I highlighted the credit crunch that Noble Group was facing.

Amid the sea of red in the Singapore stock market, Mapletree Logistics Trust shares bucked the trend and stood out like a shining beacon. The bullish form of Mapletree Logistics Trust shares could be attributed to its recent $778 million acquisitions of five ramp-up logistics warehouses from CWT Pte Ltd.

The move by Mapletree Logistics Trust raised a lot of eyebrows because it was made against the backdrop of warehouses supply glut and falling rental prices in Singapore. According to 4Q2017 data released by JTC, the number of available warehouses increased quarterly by 2% to 10.4 million sqm while vacancy rate decreased slightly by 1.6%. Correspondingly, rental prices remained weak in 4Q2017, decreasing by 1.0%.

On the other hand, the mega deal also saw Mapletree Logistics Trust one-upped on local rival Cache Logistics Trust, a ramp-up logistics warehouse specialist. The latter’s competitive strength lies in ramp-up warehouses, which are limited in supply in Singapore because specialised planning and design specifications are required for such properties. The entry of Mapletree in this niche is an unwanted competition for Cache.

Opportunistic acquisitions by Mapletree Logistics?

Investors of Cache Logistics Trust must have seen red with the acquisition. This is because all the five warehouses were previously under Cache’s Right of First Refusal granted by CWT.

After suffering from heavy shelling for the past few weeks, SingTel stock recovered from multi-year low of $3.02 to climb to $3.24 on 10 July 2018. The latest technical rebound of SingTel stock must have left investors wondering if this blue chip has indeed bottomed out. Before rejoicing, it is important to note that the big boys, namely the institutional funds had been targeting SingTel stock for the past two months.

According to Singapore Exchange (SGX) Institutional Fund Flow Monthly report, the month of May saw institutional investors net sold an epic $1.10 billion worth of Singapore stocks.

I could be wrong but I do not recall the outflow of such magnitude from Singapore stock market in recent years, apart from the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. The net selling by institutional players continued through June, with institutional net selling $257 million worth of Singapore stocks.

A more chilling revelation in the reports is that SingTel had been targeted by the big boys as SingTel stock had consistently topped the net seller lists since December 2017. In this article, I am going to show you how the big boys play the game and why you must avoid collision path with the big boys because there can only be one outcome.

Could it be the straw that broke the camel’s back? Despite the challenging operating conditions and the toxic loans from the ailing oil and gas industry, UOB stock had an enthralling fairy-tale run, surging from $17.20 in 2016 to $30 in 2018. It certainly seemed that nothing can stop the explosive form of UOB stock price, until the recent short-selling activities and property measures halted the majestic run.

Meltdown of UOB stock

6 July 2018 would be remembered as Black Friday for local bank and property stocks as Singapore government sent the market into a devastating tailspin with the announcement of additional property cooling measures. There was chaos in the stock market as bank and property stocks suffered from carnage. Among the three bank stocks, UOB stock fared the worst, plunging by as much as 3%. DBS stock retreated by 2.6% while OCBC shares fell by 2.2%.

On the basis of the underlying business structure, UOB stock looks set for a terrifying ride with the property cooling measures. Unlike DBS and OCBC, UOB stock is considered a major proxy for property play.

This is because in his heydays, UOB Chairman Emeritus Wee Cho Yaw had meticulously built a massive billion dollars property-cum-banking empire, through UOB, UOL, UIC and Haw Par Corporation.

After leading DBS to achieve a record net profit of $1.52 billion for first-quarter 2018, CEO Piyush Gupta must be at a loss for words on the recent meltdown of DBS share price. From 30 April to 4 July, DBS share price plummeted from a record $31 to $26.38, a massive decline of 14.4%.

The sudden loss of form for DBS share price must have scared the living daylights out of shareholders. After all, DBS share price had been cruising along fine with its robust set of financial results. Nonetheless, the current performance of DBS share price is not reflective of underlying business fundamentals because as far as I understand, there are no business concerns for DBS at all. The culprit for the fall of DBS share price should be the work of the short-sellers.

Should shareholders run for their lives or keep faith with CEO Piyush Gupta?

Dance with the wolves

The current meltdown is one of the biggest declines in my recent memory of DBS share price. The last time that a correction of such magnitude was back in 2009, the dark days of the Great Financial Crisis and 2016, the peak of the oil slump affecting the banks.

Within two months, OCBC share price fell off the cliff, dropping from almost $14 to $11.50. Such correction is healthy as OCBC share price had been on a spellbinding berserk run since 2017. Thus, investors should not be alarmed by the recent decline in OCBC share price. But at the back of investors’ mind must be whether OCBC share price will return to form with the impending Great Eastern Malaysia divestment. Does the current OCBC share price represent value for money or is it another value trap?

In relation to a query from a reader, many investors may be interested to know the fair value of OCBC share price. To be honest, answering this question is never easy for OCBC shares because the bank holds numerous non-core bank assets that are yet to be, or may even not be, divested in the near future.

Furthermore, even if a counter is trading at its fair value, it may not represent a golden opportunity for investors to buy on the dip. For retail investors, they must be wary of the movement of the short-sellers. You certainly don’t want to be caught off-guarded by the flipping of the whales. In recent months, OCBC share price had been hurt by short-selling activities.

Class is permanent, form is temporary. On 28 June 2018, SingTel stock price collapsed to 9-year low, falling to as low as $3.08. Amid attacks by short-sellers, SingTel stock price retreated to below the psychological level of $3.10. At the rate of decline, SingTel stock price seems destined to free fall to below the $3 mark.

The devastating decline in SingTel stock price would have caused massive paper losses for many wealth builders. Investors would know the theory of “be fearful when the market is full of greed and be greedy when the market is full of fear”. Now that the opportunity arises to invest in a blue chip, would you go for it?

The long-term fundamentals of this evergreen blue chip remain intact. Henceforth, the current bearish trend may provide a good opportunity for investors to accumulate at attractive price. But having said that, it is important to be wary of the movement of the big boys because you don’t want to incur losses when these whales flipped.

Perfect storm

It certainly seems that the bears are out in full force and hell-bent on sending SingTel stock price to the bottom, wiping off $8 billion worth of market capitalization from SingTel stock price.

21 June 2018 would be remembered as a day of reckoning for local telco players as MyRepublic set the mobile market on fire by offering one of the most innovative and competitive data plans in recent years – Smart 35. On the day of the launch, SingTel and StarHub stock prices got bombed-out. Whether the corrections are knee-jerk reactions remain to be seen but MyRepublic certainly debuted in style.

It would be sweet revenge for MyRepublic which had lost out to TPG Telecom in the bidding for the fourth telco license back in 2016. Despite losing the spectrum bid war, MyRepublic vowed to make a comeback back then. And it certainly did. With a bang.

Without having to make heavy investments on the network infrastructure, Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) like MyRepublic is seriously giving incumbent telco players a new dimension of challenge. The biggest winner out of this telco war is of course the consumers. But should investors be punching the wall as SingTel and StarHub stock prices suffered melt-down?

MyRepublic turn on the style

Smart 35 comes with 7GB data, 1000 minutes free talktime and 1000 SMS. There is no contract needed and customers may change plan later at no extra cost.

On 21 June 2018, StarHub share price plunged to a 13 year low. Trading at $1.64, this popular stock is a shadow of its former self. Even during the dark days of the Great Financial Crisis in 2009, StarHub share price had never dipped to such abysmal level.

Certainly, nobody could have predicted Starhub share price would suffer from such a devastating run. When it comes to technology disruptions, it is always a wild card. In the good old days, StarHub can bank on SMS, IDD and Pay TV for growth. But the advent of technology has significantly eroded margins from these former cash cows for telco players.

StarHub’s recent payment row with American entertainment giant, Discovery Channel, also casts a dark shadow over Pay TV business outlook amid stiff competition from video streaming players like NetFlix.

For those who bought StarHub shares at $4.20 in 2015, they would be staring at massive paper losses, even if you factored in the dividends issued during that period. Incoming new CEO, Peter Kaliaropoulos certainly have his work cut out for him when he takes over in July 2018.

But before writing this stock off, it should be highlighted that the current StarHub share price has caused the dividend yield to be at an attractive 9.47%.

Can Hyflux stage an incredible comeback like OSIM? Or rather, does Hyflux even deserve to be rescued? The embattled water treatment specialist has obtained a court protection to restructure its outstanding debts. It has also stopped payment of distribution on its $500 million 6.00% Perpetual Capital Securities which was due on 28 May 2018. The swift turn of events caught shareholders by surprise and marked a treacherous chapter for Hyflux.

Under current circumstances, investors who pumped in their hard-earned monies on the shares and perpetual bonds have every right to be angry with the management of Hyflux. How on earth did the former A-list company end up in such a sorry state is beyond me.

Whether Hyflux can emerge stronger and leaner from this embarrassing fiasco remains to be seen but the corporate drama is so bad that its good, at least from my perspective. When this counter reopens in six month time, investors should ask themselves whether they should run for their lives or risk throwing good money after bad.

I wish I did not have to write this but those who are vested in Hyflux shares or bonds should hope for the best but expect the worst. Check out the other articles written on the Hyflux saga:

Sembcorp Industries should invest in Hyflux Ltd

The holy water of Hyflux Perpetual Securities

Lack of focus

For a start, it certainly seems like Hyflux CEO bites off more than she could chew when she takes on so many board memberships through the years.

After leading SingTel to achieve an impressive record net profit of $5.45 billion for FY2018, CEO Chua Sock Koong must be stumped for words when SingTel share price plunged to a six year low on 18 June 2018. At $3.17 a piece, SingTel share price is technically entering into a bear mode territory. In the context of the current SingTel share price, is this counter a value buy or could it be a falling knife?

Many investors had pointed that the entry of fourth telco player could have played a part in the sharp decline of SingTel share price in recent months. But then again, the earnings from Singapore mobile market is significantly much lesser than that from its Australia Optus and Indonesia Telkomsel. In this regard, the current headwind should be due to its poor performance from its regional associates rather than the heightened competition in Singapore market.

Falling SingTel share price

At current dividend yield of 5.5%, SingTel share price is indeed alluring if you compared it to the coupon rates of the recent Astrea IV bonds and Singapore Savings Bonds. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects to maintain its ordinary dividends of 17.5 cents per share for the next two financial years.

With a market capitalization of $4.53 billion, Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) is the largest REIT sponsored by Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd. Temasek Holdings has a majority stake of 34.71% in this REIT while other big boys like AIA Group and NTUC Enterprise own stakes amounting to 4.92% and 2.42% respectively.

With such stellar group of major shareholders, Mapletree Commercial Trust is certainly an attractive real estate investment trust. But could it be an investment trap or potential multi-bagger?

Since this REIT debut in SGX Mainboard in 2011, it has consistently outperformed STI. The total returns (including capital appreciation and distributions paid out) is 138.5%. For the longest time, I am torn between investing in Mapletree Logistics Trust or Mapletree Commercial Trust. In this article, I will attempt to make an investment analysis of Mapletree Commercial Trust.

Business Profile

Looking at the portfolio, it is not difficult to understand why this REIT is so popular among Singaporeans. MCT has five properties in Singapore namely, Vivocity, PSA Building, Mapletree Anson, Bank of America Merrill Lynch HarbourFront and Mapletree Business City I. All these assets are either premium office or properties that are strategically located in the CBD area. VivoCity is also Singapore’s largest mall located in the HarbourFront Precinct.

It seems like yesterday when more than 10,000 retail investors in Singapore lost more than $500 million during the Lehman Brothers Minibond saga. That was in 2008. Fast forward to 2016, many accredited investors lost at least $250,000 after investing in Swiber junk bonds. And then in May 2018, Hyflux stunned the market by halting the trading of its $500 million perpetual bonds and the payment for the coupon payments. Given the spate of bond tragedies suffered by investors in recent years, one must be wondering if “this time it is different” for Astrea IV bonds.

For sure, it would not be fair to compare Astrea IV bonds to Minibonds, Swiber Bonds and Hyflux perpetual bonds. Even though they are all basically debt instruments issued by companies to raise capital, Astrea IV bonds are indirectly issued by Temasek Holdings (the Sponsor, Astrea Pte Ltd, is wholly-owned by Temasek Holdings). With such a strong issuer, the possibility of default is extremely improbable, to be frank.

Furthermore, the CEO of Temasek Holdings is Madam Ho Ching, the wife of Singapore Prime Minister. For Temasek Holdings to offer such unprecedented innovative product to retail investors, there are surely safeguards designed to ensure that it will not fail.

It had been a harrowing ride for SembCorp Marine as the world number 2 oil rig builder faces crisis after crisis in the aftermath of the global oil slump. The past few years had seen Sembcorp making an explosive impairment amounting to $609 million in FY2015, engaged in a bitter legal battle against Marco Polo Marine and embroiled in the intriguing possible link to Sete Brasil corruption scandal.

However, in early 2018, United States President Donald Trump had proposed an aggressive plan to transform the country into a superpower energy nation. Against the backdrop of improving oil price, can SembCorp Marine ride out this vicious storm?

The four key capabilities of SembCorp Marine are Rigs & Floaters, Repairs & Upgrades, Offshore Platforms and Specialized Shipbuilding. The businesses of SembCorp Marine are all in direct competition against fellow peer, Keppel Corporation.

But unlike Keppel, SembCorp Marine is a pure offshore and marine company and therefore don’t have the buffer from other business segments to withstand the impact from the downturn in the oil and gas sector. In this regard, the financial destiny of SembCorp Marine is perceived to be more impacted by the oil slump than Keppel Corp. To find out more about my analysis of the parent company, SembCorp Industries, do sign up as member to access the protected article.

For most retail investors, real estate investment trusts (REITs) offers the best alternative to owning a real estate without the need of forking obscene amount of cash or the hassle of dealing with difficult tenants. But of course, like all investments, there are always pitfalls to watch out for when investing in REITs. In this article, I will share my insights on investing in REITs.

Over the years, the landscape for REITs had evolved significantly, with the change in the regulatory gearing limit, asset enhancement initiatives by the bigger REITs and the emergence of perpetual bonds (Mapletree Logistics Trust was the first REIT to use perpetual bonds in 2012). Against this backdrop, for sure there are REITs that outperformed the rest while there are those which may not worth your time and money.

Over in Sabana REIT, a group of irate investors called for the manager to be removed in 2017 over its poor performance and falling unit price. Although the revolt was unsuccessful, it has resulted in the change of the leadership. What are rules governing the removal of REITs manager and what are the rights that REIT investors can leverage to protect their investments?

Industry trends

Under Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), REITs are collective investment schemes that invest primarily in real estates and real-estate related assets.

It is a momentous year for Pan-United Corp as the group finally competed its de-merge of its port business which it started in 1997. Under Xinghua Port Holdings Ltd (“Xinghua”), the business was successfully listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong on 12 February 2018.

The past year had been a revelation for Pan-United as the construction company restructured its businesses, implemented capital reduction, proposed distribution of 1-for-1 Xinghua shares to existing shareholders and completed a rights issue in 2017. In light of these major changes, what are the investment merits of Pan-United?

Business profile

Founded in 1958, Pan-United is essentially a home-grown enterprise that is family-controlled and family-managed. However, understanding Pan-United is not an easy feat because of its diversified business portfolio. It’s core competency is in the supply of concrete and cement business, with more than 40% and 34% market share in concrete and cement respectively. Pan-United is also one of the top two ready mixed concrete suppliers in Asia (ex-China), with an increasing footprint in Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Besides the concrete and cement business, Pan-United operates a trading and port business in China, which it de-merged recently. Previously, it also had business activities in shipping line but it exited the business due to the downturn in the industry.

On 22 May 2018, Hyflux rocked the market by announcing that it is seeking High Court’s protection to reorganise their liabilities and businesses. Meanwhile, Hyflux also requested for a voluntary trading suspension of its shares and securities listed on SGX. But the biggest bombshell had to be the non-payment of the distribution on its $500 million 6.00% Perpetual Capital Securities, which will be due on 28 May 2018.

Previously, I have written an article on Hyflux perpetual securities and highlighted its risks. Readers can subscribe as members to access that article for reference. The perpetual securities were selling like hotcakes back in 2016 because investors were lured by the seductively high yield against the backdrop of low bank interest rates. The latest announcement would have left investors in a no-man land as they cannot sell their shares nor the perpetual securities for the next six months.

Given the non-payment of the coupon payment in 28 May 2018, holders of the bond would likely to face some form of impairments on their investments. It is also likely that when the counter reopens in six month time, there might be heavy short-selling or possibility of shareholders dumping their shares, causing the share price to crash.

Like many of its peers in the industrial REITs, the past few years had been an absolute nightmare for Cache Logistics Trust which saw the logistics trust facing declining occupancy rates, negative rental reversions and market oversupply issues.

Apart from the challenging operating environment, Cache Logistics Trust was also involved in an intriguing legal battle with Schenker Singapore in relation to an investment property at 51 Alps Avenue. And then there was the huge uncertainties arising from the acquisition of its sponsor, CWT Limited, by debt-laden Chinese conglomerate HNA Group.

But recent data revealed that the industrial REITs may have bottomed out. An amicable resolution had been reached in relation to the legal battle in 2017. The acquisition of CWT Limited had also been completed. So is Cache Logistics Trust currently a value trap or a hidden gem? In this article, the investment merits of Cache Logistics Trust are reviewed.

Company profile

Being a small-cap REIT, Cache Logistics Trust stood out among the S-REITs [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only. To read the full content, please sign up as member.]

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Being Singapore’s first and largest listed business space and industrial real estate investment trust, Ascendas REIT has certainly come a long way. From eight properties valued at around $600 million in 2002, the Manager has grown the REIT to a market leader with total assets of about $10.4 billion, comprising 100 properties in Singapore and 31 properties in Australia. With such stellar track record, Ascendas REIT is definitely worth taking a look.

But the abrupt resignation of former CEO Chia Nam Toon in November 2017 had raised eyebrows among investors. After all, Mr Chia had joined Ascendas REIT for less than two years and resigned “for personal reasons”. Although the management had stressed that it would be “business as usual”, we all know the CEO plays an important role and to downplay the significance of the event would be ridiculous. Nevertheless, a new CEO – Mr William Tay Wee Leong – was appointed in February 2018.

But the reason why I would not invest in this REIT supremo is not because of the change in leadership, but because of my concern on its financial health. For FY2017/18, the cash and cash equivalent was a negative $23 million. The REIT needed a bank overdraft amounting to approximately $48.0 million as at 31 March 2018, thus allowing the cash and cash equivalents to be reflected as “$25 million” in the balance sheet.

At a time when Dairy Farm is selling its 7-Eleven stores in Singapore, arch rival Sheng Siong’s stunning financial performance attracted $100 million from Mondrian Investment Partners Limited which acquired 99,000,000 ordinary shares of Sheng Siong from the company founders. With a Price/Book Value of 5.3 and P/E of 21.7, is Sheng Siong share price inflated? Apparently, Mondrian doesn’t think so.

Mondrian Investment Partners, founded in 1990, is an independent global investment manager with offices in London and Philadelphia and a value-oriented, defensive investment approach. Given its investment mandate, Mondrian must have felt that Sheng Siong share price was undervalued, thus the explanation for the purchase.

Listed in the SGX mainboard only on 17 August 2011, Sheng Siong share price was trading at merely $0.33. Fast forward seven years later, the share price had shaken off its penny stock status to surge past the $1.00 milestone since 2016. The capital appreciation of Sheng Siong share price have created much wealth for long-time investors indeed.

2018 may prove to be another great year for Sheng Siong as the home-grown supermarket operator achieved increased revenue of 5.1% year-on-year to $228.3 million in 1Q2018, mainly contributed by new stores and comparable same store sales.

It is an explosive time-bomb waiting to be ignited. Being the largest telecommunication player in Singapore, SingTel enjoys an incredible massive investment moat with 685 million mobile customers spanning across 22 countries. This is an amazing feat which not many telco in the region can replicate.

But its overseas adventure came at a price as the Singaporean telco engages in various commercial disputes with foreign government authorities. Collectively, the commercial disputes involved liabilities amounting to a whopping $4 billion.

I have been a big fan of SingTel and had written a number of investment articles on this great company for several years. But the lurking commercial disputes had deterred me from investing in SingTel. Make no mistake, the amount involved is monstrously huge. So I had preferred to err on the side of caution although that would mean loss opportunities on the dividends and capital appreciation of SingTel share price.

Financial performance

Notwithstanding the above issue, SingTel share price continues to power ahead in the face of the multi-billion lawsuits and challenging operating environment. Operating revenue for the third quarter of FY2018 increased 4% to $4.60 billion while EBITDA rose 6% to S$1.29 billion. Net profit was down 9% to $890 million while [This is a premium article.

Managers of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) often have various reasons to raise funds from the capital market. The purposes could be for the purchase of assets, acquisition of another company or simply to pare down debts. To raise capital, the management may choose to issue rights offering, bonds, private placements or even borrow from the banks. In this article, I will share my perspective on rights offering from REITs.

Rights offering

Before proceeding further, it is important to understand the difference between a rights and options. The former is an offer to existing shareholders or unitholders of a REIT to purchase additional shares or units at discounted prices and the shareholders or unitholders may not take up the offer.

On the other hand, you do not need to be an existing shareholder or unitholder in order to buy options, which give you the right but not the obligation to purchase the underlying shares or units at a pre-set price. Nevertheless, if you choose not to exercise the option, you would have forfeited the fee relating to the option cost.

Basically, a rights issue is a form of equity financing for listed companies or REITs. It gives existing shareholders or unitholders the rights to purchase additional shares or units in proportion to their existing holdings, within a given timeframe.

It is the clash of the banking titans as Singapore no.1 and 2 banks slugged it out to achieve stellar first quarter 2018 results. On the basis of the latest financial results, DBS edged past OCBC to smash in a record $1.52 billion. Shareholders must be very pleased with DBS CEO Piyush Gupta’s performance because share price stormed to $30 upon the release of the results.

Notwithstanding the good performances, there are lurking risks from technology disruptions which had impacted SingPost, M1 and ComfortDelgro. To tackle this challenge, DBS CEO is leading the bank on an aggressive digital transformation. After all, Piyush Gupta once famously declared that “people need banking, not banks”. But then again, OCBC has not been resting on its laurels and had been making a series of significant acquisitions in the wealth management realms that may prove to be game-changers in the coming years.

It remains to be seen as who will be the ultimate winner but I firmly believe strategies made by DBS’ Gupta and OCBC’s Samuel Tsien would define the course of the banks’ destinies with the next five years.

DBS share price to reach $50 for 50^th anniversary?

Since the $30 mark, the share price of DBS has corrected slightly, presumably because some investors had cashed in on the profits.

Mapletree Logistics Trust was the first of the four REITs to be listed on SGX Mainboard after its sponsor, Mapletree Investments, was established in December 2000 to hold non-port properties transferred from PSA Corporation to Temasek Holdings.

According to SGX Research, this REIT delivered the best total returns among the four since IPO – at an incredible 336%. In my point of view, Mapletree Logistics Trust is at a cross-road as it tried to ride on the exciting wave of e-commerce in China.

Listed in 2005 with an IPO price of $0.68, the unit price had withstood the onslaught of the Great Financial Crisis and went on strength to strength to hit a peak of $1.37 in January 2018. In recent months, the unit price had experienced some form of correction, which I think could be due to the number of on-coming asset acquisitions.

Part of the reason for this article is the compelling growth project of Mapletree Logistics Trust. Its Sponsor, Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd has an incredible pipeline of 45 projects in China that could be injected to Mapletree Logistics Trust in the coming years. Henceforth, the value of its investment properties could potentially double in a couple of years.