SG Wealth Builder

On 5 February 2018, US Dow Jones plunged nearly 1,200 points, the biggest single-day decline on record. The sell-off in the US market came after a smaller decline of 666 points on the previous Friday. As expected, Asia stock markets suffered similar carnage. Straits Times Index was down 121 points on mid-day 6 February 2018.

Is this the start of a bear cycle or just a healthy correction? Many analysts had been forecasting the trend of the stock market for the longest time. A number of them predicted that a stock market crash is imminent. But the matter of fact is that nobody can predict the future. If someone tell you that he believes that the stock market will rise or fall, don’t believe him.

What is your strategy?

Whether it is a healthy pull-back or a devastating stock market crash, it is important to have an investing strategy. Far too many people lose their wealth to Mr Market not because of the failing of the stock market, but because of their flawed investment strategies, or the lack of it. If you followed my blog closely, you would have realized my strategy is to buy assets at discounted value or during distress times.

Civil war broke out at Genting Group as members of the founding family engage in explosive lawsuits which threaten to undermine the control of Executive Chairman, Lim Kok Thay. The legal battle involves the will left behind by the late founder, Lim Goh Tong. Apart from this, Kok Thay is also engaged in a separate lawsuit with one of his sisters over beneficial interest in a block of Genting shares.

Many people fear that the family feuds would lead to devastating turmoil for the revered casino operator. But as far as I am concerned, I am convinced that the Lim family would ride out the storm and move on from this dark chapter. After all, this is Genting Group, one of the most successful Malaysian business empire for the last 30 years. To claim that these legal battles would bring down Genting Group is ludicrous.

The success story of Genting Highlands gaming resort is indeed intriguing. In fact, it was so successful that Singapore changed the law to legalize casinos in 2006 (Casino Control Act), paving the way for Genting Group to build a gaming resort in Sentosa. Since then, Singapore has become the second largest gambling market in Asia, behind only Macau.

Once upon a time in Singapore, taxi drivers held commuters to ransom with their ridiculous surcharges, bad practices of taking longer routes to earn higher fares and going ‘MIA’ during peak hours. Suffice to say, in every industry, there will always be black sheep. But the emergence of Grab and Uber have changed the game and levelled the playing field. Among the biggest casualty from this fall-out had to be ComfortDelgro, the largest taxi operator in Singapore.

The irony about ComfortDelgro is that as a taxi operator, it derives the bulk of its revenue from bus and MRT businesses, instead of its taxi business. With the disruption in the taxi landscape, perhaps in no time, ComfortDelgro may consider switching its taxi drivers to bus or train drivers. This scenario may become a reality due to a frightening competitive advantage of Uber and Grab – they are both relatively asset-lite companies. Read on to find out why this spell big trouble for this Singapore blue chip.

Horror ride for Comfort

The evolving on-demand transport landscape is indeed sweet revenge for commuters as taxi operators had monopolised the market for the longest time due to lack of credible taxi alternatives. A lot of credit must be given to the Minister for Transport, Khaw Boon Wan for democratizing the private-hiring industry.  

Sometimes, life is stranger than fiction. In my years of investing in SGX stocks, I have come across many investors who persisted in buying more shares of companies whose business fundamentals turned sour. Perhaps they did not have the time to read the financial reports or maybe they just lack the competence to do a proper due diligence. So in M1 case, is it a case of catching a falling knife?

When investing in stock, never just study the trend of the share price. This is especially so if you consider yourself to be a long-term investor.

Recently, several financial bloggers purchased M1 shares on the basis that the shares had reached a “break-through” level. Whether they had made the correct decision is subjected to debate. After all, there is no right or wrong in the stock market. The only thing that matters is whether you have made money from the stock investments.

In my point of view, I would avoid investing in M1 shares at all cost. And the latest financial results vindicated that business fundamentals of M1 continued to slide.

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Being Singapore’s aerospace and defence group, one wonders whether ST Engineering has lost its investment fortress. Revenue has stagnated since FY2012 and net profit plunged from $576.2 million in FY2012 to $484.5 million in FY2016. Due to the declining financial performance, the stock price had also dropped from a high of $4.45 in FY2013 to the current $3.36 level.

Is ST Engineering a value trap or bargain buy now? This article will examine the merits and risks of investing in this government-linked company.

Land Systems

Firstly, as a defence group, ST Engineering enjoys a defensive fortress in Singapore as its Land Systems sector supports the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) to modernize our fighting forces through major projects like the next-generation Armoured Fighting Vehicle. It also provides engineering solutions for various weapons and ammunition systems. For 3Q2017, commercial sales and defence sales constituted 63% or $1.0b, and 37% or $0.6b respectively of Group revenue.

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Keppel Corp’s massive fine of USD 422 million over corruption charges had cast a spotlight on rival Sembcorp Marine. The record fine had raised questions on whether Sembcorp Marine would be implicated and created much uncertainties for the company. This is because it is not known if Sembcorp is currently being investigated by the authorities over corruption charges. Nevertheless, it is timely to review whether it is opportune to invest in the parent company, Sembcorp Industries Ltd.

Being rated as the world no.2 oil rig builder, Sembcorp Marine had endured a challenging FY2017 like Keppel Corp. Revenue decreased for rig building and offshore platform projects as well as contracts termination and inventories written down arising from the contract signed in October 2017 to sell nine jack-up oil drilling rigs. Revenue for nine months shrank to $1.7 billion, a decrease of 36% year-on-year. But net profit remained stable, at $28 million, an increase of 3% year-on-year.

Notwithstanding the above, it should be noted that Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI) is more than just Sembcorp Marine, which is listed separately on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange. SCI has three main businesses namely, Utilities, Marine and Urban Development.

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2017 had seen local banks like OCBC and DBS making strategic acquisitions to grow their wealth management portfolios. Yet UOB is surprisingly quiet on the merger and acquisition front. What is the venerable bank up to? Is merger king, Wee Cho Yaw, plotting something special in 2018?

Once upon a time in Singapore’s banking fraternity, there were four local “Heavenly Kings” – Development Bank of Singapore (DBS), United Overseas Bank (UOB), Overseas Union Bank (OUB) and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation. They are all household names and I believe most Singaporeans have experiences with their bank products or services.

On looking back, the devastating effect of the Asian Financial Crisis in the nineties and the industry liberalization brought forth by the new Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) regulations changed the banking landscape forever. Through the years, UOB has staved off these challenges and emerged as one of the most powerful forces among its peers.

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You can sign up for the SG Wealth Builder membership. New members signing up now will receive a bonus investment report on Singapore stocks!

The recent upturn in Singapore economy led to a surge in local banks’ share price. Generally seen as the bellwether of the economy, bank stocks are extremely sensitive to economy conditions. South-East Asia largest bank, DBS, is no exception. The share price stormed to record high of $26.60, an impressive level not seen even during the boom years preceding the Great Financial Crisis.

The power surge of the share price had created much wealth for many wealth builders, including DBS CEO who bought 200,000 shares for $2.8 million in February 2016. For the man in the street, $2.8 million is lot of money. But for Piyush Gupta, his annual pay package in FY2016 was already $8.4 million. His purchase of DBS shares back then was driven by his conviction that the shares were grossly undervalued.

Indeed, his move was vindicated as the bank’s share price climbed by almost 100% within two years. If Gupta had held the shares from February 2016 till now, he would have made a profit of almost $2.8 million.

With the bullish form of the share price, it is indeed tempting to purchase DBS shares. However, it is important to review the financial performance and assess whether the price is worth the value.

The story of Perennial Real Estate Holdings is certainly intriguing. Having made its way into SGX stock market in 2014 after staging a massive $1.56 billion reverse takeover of St James Holdings (the famous nightclub operator), Perennial counts Wilmar International and Osim founder, Ron Sim as major shareholders (combined 35%). Recently, it announced a US$1.2 billion Joint Venture Vehicle with First Close of US$500 million to Invest in HSR Healthcare Integrated Mixed-use Developments in China.

The entry of Perennial Real Estate Holdings into China’s healthcare put it on a collision path against Raffles Medical, which announced that it is building two hospitals in China. Although the two healthcare players are from Singapore, their business models and backgrounds are fundamentally different. In this context, I will share my insights in this article.

Background of Perennial Real Estate

Although Perennial claims to be an integrated real estate and healthcare company, the business focus is predominantly in property development and management of mixed-use projects. In Singapore, Perennial has invested in and manages prime iconic properties located in the Civic District, Central Business District and Orchard Road precinct, such as CHIJMES, Capitol Singapore, AXA Tower, TripleOne Somerset, House of Tan Yeok Nee and Chinatown Point.

The recent corruption fine on Keppel Corporation amounting to $566.91 million by US, Brazil and Singapore authorities certainly rocked the market. The record fine came at a time when the oil market is perceived to be recovering from a devastating three-year slump. But more importantly, as a government-linked company, the episode left a taint on the reputation of Singapore, widely known to be one of the most corruption free cities in the world.

But beyond the corruption scandal, a far more sinister probably awaits Keppel Corp. In my opinion, it could be the dominance of US shale oil production that may change the game for the Singapore blue chip. Whilst the corruption fine may be staggering, Keppel Corp’s balance sheet is strong enough to withstand the impact without incurring significant damages to its growth prospects.

Diversified businesses

As an industrial conglomerate, Keppel Corporation has four major business divisions – Offshore and Marine, Property, Infrastructure and Investments. Keppel O&M (KOM) specializes in offshore rig design, construction and repair, ship repair and conversion, and specialised shipbuilding. It integrates and harnesses the experience and expertise of 20 yards and offices worldwide to be near customers and markets.

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From pork seller to CEO. Nope, this is not the plot of the latest Mediacorp drama nor the story of SG Wealth Builder. Instead, it is the real success story of Mr Lim Hock Chee, CEO of Sheng Siong. From a humble outlet at Ang Mo Kio, Mr Lim grew Sheng Siong to the third largest supermarket operator in Singapore and eventually got it listed in 2011.

Since its debut at IPO price of $0.33, the share price had been surging in recent years and even crossed the $1.00 in 2016. Given the bullish form, should investors enter this counter now or is it a value trap?

2017 proved to be another great year for Sheng Siong as the home-grown supermarket operator achieved revenue of $629 million and net profit of $52.8 million for nine months, an increase of 5% and 11.8% respectively year-on-year. The results were certainly impressive given the current weak retail sentiments. But as shared in my previous articles, I would not invest in this counter due to the following factors highlighted in this article.

Before reading this review, please check out the articles I have written on Sheng Siong. They would contain my research and insights on this counter.

Due to a request from reader, I am consolidating a series of analysis for Noble Group in 2017. The links to the articles are below and they are unprotected for a limited time. Thereafter, they will be locked up and you need to register as member of SG Wealth Builder to access the premium content.

Do take note that this counter is very risky and novice investors should not attempt to trade it if there is a lack of understanding on the business model. This article is also only for information and not meant to induce or serve as a form of financial advice.

For Noble Group, 2017 will go down in its history as the most dramatic year as the commodity trader engaged in an epic swim-or sink-battle. From management upheaval, to lawsuits involving ex-CEOs, to plunging share price, vicious short-selling attacks, accusations of accounting malpractices, credit ratings downgrades, record earning losses and reported loss of bank support (DBS), Noble Group certainly looked on course to an explosive self-destruction path.

Despite the relentless troubles, Noble Group continued to attract institutional investors’ support. In June, Abu Dhabi’s Goldilocks emerged as surprise major shareholder while China sovereign wealth fund, CIC, remained one of its largest shareholders, with stake of 9.5%.

With Dow Jones on course to hitting 25,000 points, the US stock market is certainly on a bull run. Over in Singapore, the Strait Times Index is not doing too badly either, adding 1.8% for the month of November and bringing its year-to-date dividend inclusive return to 23%, compared to an SGD denominated average returns of 18% for the benchmarks of Australia, Hong Kong and Japan. In this article, I will share my views on the 5 SGX stocks to invest in 2018.

For the past 7 years, I had been sharing my insights and strategies on a number of SGX stocks in this blog. However, two years ago, I have divested all my stock holding to fund the purchase of my new home. In spite of this, I have been analysing selected SGX stocks which I would invest in 2018 once my war chest is built up. On this note, it must be emphasized that I do not have a vested interest in the following SGX stocks. Readers and members must do their own diligence before investing in these counters.

OCBC

I am still beating myself for missing the boat on this one. Since 2016, I have been tracking OCBC when the shares were trading at about $8.00 level.

Have you bought Raffles Medical shares recently? Since my last coverage on this counter on 24 August 2017, the share price of the private healthcare service provider had a 10% correction. What is happening? Should shareholders run for their lives?

To add value to readers, I will share my stock analysis of Raffles Medical Group. Through this, I hope readers will learn how to perform a basic evaluation on stocks and sign up as members of SG Wealth Builder.

Circle of Competence

When it comes to stock investing, the best approach is to invest within your “circle of competence”. This means that you don’t have to be an expert in every company in order to succeed. Instead, invest in an area in which you have a significant knowledge than the rest of investors. For example, if you are a healthcare worker, you are likely to know the trend of the healthcare industry, the market leaders, the demand and supply, and the key developments in the medical field. Thus, it is likely that you would be familiar with Raffles Medical Group and how it has fared in recent years.

But what if you don’t have the circle of competence? Then the risk should be mitigated by the understanding of business model.

Should Starhub investors run for their lives? The month of November had been a dreadful one for Singapore’s number two telecommunication player as its major shareholder, DBS, sold off 900,000 shares, then followed by the shock announcement of CEO Tan Tong Hai who will step down in May 2018. The bad news came swiftly after the announcement of the poor 3Q17 financial results. On the other hand, arch rival SingTel announced a set of smashing good financial results after the divestment of NetLink Trust.

Starhub in crisis?

The announcement of the departure of Tan Tong Hai was indeed surprising, coming at a time when the industry is undergoing a major shake-up. The disruptions caused by technology has led to challenging operating environment faced by all players as many consumers used applications to access overseas calls and short messages. The trend has led to declining revenue from mobile and fixed lines. In the past, IDD call charges and SMS had been cash cows for the telco players. Now, consumers typically use applications to bypass such services.

For Starhub, the decline started many years ago when it lost the monopoly of Pay TV coverage of English Premier League to SingTel in 2009. That was a real turning point and SingTel had really knocked the wind out of Starhub.

BreadTalk Group is a home-grown SGX stock which I have always admired because of its strong brand name and high-quality bakeries. When its founder, George Quek launched the first store in 2000, nobody could have predicted that he would go on to grow the BreadTalk chain store to such extent that it got listed in Singapore Exchange in 2003. Within three years, BreadTalk had become a force to be reckoned with in Singapore market and George had certainly wasted no time in exporting the brand overseas.

Today, BreadTalk operates close to 1,000 outlets across Singapore, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Supported by a global staff strength of 7,000, the stable of brands include BreadTalk, Toast Box, Food Republic and the operating rights to Din Tai Fung restaurants from Taiwan. These are all household names and together, they helped to reinforce BreadTalk business at the global stage.

But behind the scene, George Quek had quietly built up an impressive portfolio of investment portfolio. Over the years, the divestment of these properties had generated a slew of dividends for loyal investors.

For example, in Q1FY16, the management [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only.

Singapore “Big Three” local banks recently announced third quarter 2017 results. Although all three banks suffered from collateral damage arising from loan exposure to the oil and gas sector, the latest results were generally upbeat and data revealed resilient growth for OCBC, DBS and UOB.

Competition continued to be stiff among the banks but growth for all three banks is expected to be positive for the full-year as Singapore economic growth was predicted to exceed 3% for 2017.

OCBC took the lead

Net Performing Assets (NPAs) continued to weigh on the banks’ earning as the ailing oil and gas sector showed no signs of revival. DBS recorded a devastating 25% decline for 3Q17 profit as compared a year ago. Profit stood at $802 million, the worst among its close rivals. The dismal result for DBS was due to the massive allowances of $815 million made, largely for the loan exposure oil and gas sector. This was a huge provision and the amount indicated that the DBS CEO might have grossly underestimated the oil slump.

On the other hand, OCBC smashed in a solid profit of $1.06 billion for 3Q17, 12% above S$943 million a year ago. UOB came in second with profit of $883 million, 12% above a year ago.

In what is believed to be the world largest IPO ever, Saudi Arabia oil company Aramco is seeking to list 5 percent of the company, which is valued at USD2 trillion, in both domestic and international stock markets. The move is part of the plan by the Saudi kingdom to diversify its economy and reduce the reliance on the black gold. International stock exchanges from New York, London, Hong Kong and Singapore have been vying to win the prized trophy of winning the IPO. Can SGX win the game?

To put things in perspective, the chance of Singapore Exchange securing the prestigious secondary listing in SGX is remotely small. The rate of success is probably 5% and I would be extremely surprise if SGX could pull it off. This is because if the intention of Saudi Arabia is to seek an international listing to diversify income, then market size is significant. Logically speaking, the natural choice would be New York, London or Beijing.

In my opinion, the New York Stock Exchange is the most likely destination for the Aramco IPO. London offers the prospect of being the major investment gateway to European market but Brexit had totally changed the game. As for Beijing, the stock exchange is not accessible to foreign investors and for Saudi Arabia to list Aramco there would defeat the purpose of a secondary listing.

Embattled Noble Group firmly had investors on tenterhooks as media reports emerged of DBS bank cutting lending facility and the resignation of co-CEO. The double blows sent share price plunging to $0.198, below the $0.20 critical support level. Considering the fact that there was a 10 into 1 share consolidation done in May 2017, the adjusted share price is actually $0.0198.

Investors who had subscribed to the rights issue in last year would have lost their pants if they had held on to the shares until today.

A week before, the SGX-listed company reported a stunning USD1.17 billion losses for the third quarter. Losses for the nine months ending 30 September 2017 amounted to a scary USD3 billion. Prior to this, investors were already preempted about the gigantic loss on 23 October 2017. Nonetheless, the latest setback sent the shares into a tailspin. Is it really the end of Noble Group?

The frightening aspect of the latest results was the [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only. To read the full content, please sign up as member.]

Read my articles on Noble Group:

1. Nightmare of Noble Group continues
2. Noble Group’s horror show
3. Noble Group new white knight?

SATS is a SGX stock which I have always admired because of its historically strong business performance. The company is a leading provider of gateway services and food solutions, with the major bulk of business mainly in the aviation sector. Recently, the share price of SATS experienced a loss of form. What is the situation? Has the management lost the plot?

Since the announcement of the 1QFY2018 financial results in 21 July 2017, the share price experienced a major bout of decline. From $5.10 to $4.60, there was a drop of almost 10%. Technically, this represented a correction for SATS share price. It is only lately that this counter started to recover and climbed to $4.77 on 3 November 2017.

It appears to me that investors had decided to punish this counter for delivering quarterly profit of $57.3 million in Q1FY2018, a decline of 10.6% compared to prior year. But I think it is not justified because in the previous year, the profit was bolstered by the sale of the Senoko plant, which provided a non-operating gain of $9.3 million.

In fact, SATS performance should be considered resilient because current quarterly results excluded one-off items like disposal of assets. Revenue and operating profit remained flat, at $426.5 million and $53.5 million respectively.