Wilmar share price in US$1.2 billion windfall!

Lightning struck twice for Wilmar share price! Troubles come in troops as the leading agribusiness group was rocked by a slew of court cases in Indonesia and China. The last time I covered Wilmar share price was in 2023. Back then, I wrote that the biggest risks for Wilmar stemmed from its exposure to foreign currency translations and crude palm oil (CPO) prices. What I did not foresee is the aspect of regulatory risk, something which dogged Wilmar in 2025.

First thing first. I must clarify that Wilmar is one of my favourite SGX stocks. In 2020, I had invested in Wilmar and exited at a profit of $2,700 in early 2021. My lowest entry of Wilmar share price was $4.84 and I exited at $5.20. While I did not exit at the highest point of $5.60, I have no regrets selling my Wilmar stocks. In life, you can never sell at the highest point. Despite so, I would caution that due to the volatility of Wilmar share price, this stock is really not for the faint-hearted.

On 25 September 2025, Wilmar announced that the Indonesian Supreme Court has overturned the previous acquittals and its five subsidiaries were ordered to pay a fine of US$709 million over corrupt actions taken by these subsidiaries in 2021 during a shortage of cooking oil in the Indonesia. The Indonesia authorities claimed for losses amounting to US$755 million.

The massive penalty walloped Wilmar’s financial performance upset down as the Group booked a disappointing loss of US$348 million in 3QFY2025, a reversal from the profit of US$254 million recorded in 3QFY2024. The huge fine also caused Wilmar share price to plunge to a 10-year low of US$2.85 on 26 September 2025. It certainly felt like the sky was falling for Wilmar investors.

Interestingly, just when investors thought it’s the endgame for Wilmar share price, the Group’s 89.99%-owned China subsidiary, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings, announced a stellar financial result for 9MFY2025 – net profit of RMB 2.7 billion. Evidently, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings has become the crown jewel of Wilmar as it accounts for about 60 to 70% of Wilmar’s net profit. The solid performance of Yihai Kerry Arawana rescued Wilmar share price and sent the counter to a high of $3.36 on 13 November 2025.

Then again, Man proposes, God disposes. Investors were happily popping the champagne when Wilmar stunned the market as it announced that Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings’s subsidiary, Guangzhou Yihai, was found guilty of contractual fraud by the Intermediate People’s Court of Huaibei City and was ordered to jointly bear the losses of RMB1.88 billion (US$264.5 million) with Yunnan Huijia. The shock announcement sent Wilmar share price spiralling to the bottom of the cliff as the counter fell to a low of $3.00 on 11 December 2025. What a roller-coaster ride it must have been for investors!

Despite the slew of horror setbacks in 2025, Wilmar share price somehow confounded investors as it staged a major comeback in early 2026, breaking out to a high of $3.59 as the STI hit 5,000. Against the backdrop of legal battles and economic uncertainties, what could be the mysterious driving forces behind Wilmar share price? In this article, I will share my insights on the rationale behind the rebound in Wilmar share price and the outlook of Wilmar share price in 2026.Note that this is an opinion article and not meant to be a financial advice. Please do your due diligence or engage financial advisors before investing in the stock market. As of now, I am not vested in this counter. In view of the volatility of Wilmar share price, investors must exercise caution in trading this counter.

Wilmar share price in whole new world

Given the topsy turvy turn of events, you either love or hate Wilmar. There is simply no two ways about it. The volatility of Wilmar share price can be gut-wrenching for retail investors who do not monitor the company’s activities closely. On the other hand, traders should love the violent swings of Wilmar share price due to the exciting possibilities of price discovery.

There are a few driving factors behind the volatility of Wilmar share price, and they are largely attributed to the core business in Indonesia – palm oil plantations. Wilmar is one of the world’s largest oil palm plantation owners with a total planted area of 231,000 hectares (ha) as at 31 December 2024, of which about 66% is in Indonesia. However, it would be a mistake to view Wilmar as solely a plantation owner.

Through the years, Wilmar has been aggressive in various acquisitions in its bid to become an integrated supply chain powerhouse in palm oil. Currently, Wilmar is the world’s largest refiner and merchandiser of palm and lauric oils, controlling a massive chunk of the global supply chain, with over 500 manufacturing plants. Wilmar is also the world’s largest manufacturer of oleochemicals (used in soaps and detergents), specialty fats (for chocolates and bakeries) and palm biodiesel (a huge growth driver in 2026 with Indonesia’s B40/B45 mandates.

Retail investors should take note of the latest acquisition by Wilmar because it could really move the needle for Wilmar share price in 2026. In late 2025, Wilmar completed the acquisition of an additional 13% stake in Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) from the Adani Group for approximately US$526.5 million. Arising from the acquisition, AWL is now a subsidiary of Wilmar. This means Wilmar will consolidate 100% of AWL’s massive revenue into its own.

Wilmar expects to recognize a deemed disposal gain of approximately US$1.2 billion and a corresponding increase in net assets of US$1.3 billion. The acquisition will also ramp up revenue as it consolidates AWL revenue of US$7 to 8 billion into Wilmar’s. Overall, I view the additional 13% stake in AWL as very strategic as I have pointed out in my previous article that India is an important market for Wilmar due to its massive demand for palm oil. In fact, India has overtaken China to become the world biggest importer of palm oil. While China remains a massive market, its palm oil demand is currently softening due to a shift toward soybean oil and broader economic cooling.

Financial performance

The US$709 million fine by Indonesian Supreme Court is not going to impact the cash flow as Wilmar has already catered for the fine. The Group reported a net loss of US$347.7 million in 3QFY2025 (3Q2024: US$254.4 million profit) as a result of the payment. For 9MFY2025, the Group reported net profit of US$247.3 million (9M2024: US$834.0 million).

The continued softening of soybean and sugar prices led to lower working capital requirements for the Group, reducing net debt to US$16.48 billion as of 30 September 2025. Consequently, net gearing ratio for the Group improved to 0.82x as of 30 September 2025.

Yihai Kerry Arawana (YKA) continues to power Wilmar’s Food Products segment as the strong performance in China’s oil, flour and rice businesses played a role in leading the core net profit in 3QFY2025 to surge 72% year-on-year. With AWL coming onboard as a subsidiary instead of a joint venture, the needle will move substantially for Wilmar going forward. Previously, as a joint venture, AWL’s billion-dollar revenue did not feature in Wilmar’s top line.

As a subsidiary: Wilmar now consolidates 100% of AWL’s revenue. Since AWL generated over US$7.5 billion (Rs 64,000 crore) in FY2025, Wilmar’s total Group revenue will suddenly look significantly larger. This “bulking up” often attracts institutional investors who track mega-cap growth.

The lack of awareness of this positive development could be attributed to the spate of legal issues confronting Wilmar in 2025. Apart from the Indonesia cooking oil penalty, there was a separate court case involving a General Manager of Wilmar over unlawful acts relating to the import of raw sugar which allegedly caused losses amounting to IDR578 billion (approximately US$36 million) to Indonesia. Currently, YKA’s subsidiary has lodged an appeal with the Chinese court against the criminal judgement over contractual fraud. The legal battle is expected to cause overhang on its share price.

Conclusion

As one of the STI heavyweights, Wilmar share is very liquid. Henceforth, investors can be assured that this is not one of those dead SGX stocks. On the flipside, being part of the STI can also attract short-selling attacks. Therefore, this counter is not for the weak-hearted.

One thing about Wilmar share price is that it is supported by frequent insider buying by the CEO, Mr Kuok Khoon Hong. Following the revelation of the massive fine by Indonesian court, Mr Kuok made a series of insider buys. Between September 25 and September 28, 2025, Mr. Kuok and his investment vehicles (including Hong Lee Holdings) scooped up approximately 2.95 million shares. He bought heavily at an average price of around S$2.82 to S$2.84.

Currency exchange is a key risk mainly to the valuation of the business. Currency translation gains/losses are non-cash in nature and are flown through the Profit & Loss (P&L) statement because they are “unrealized.” For 1HFY2025, Wilmar recorded a gain of US$696.7 million for 1H 2025. If you are a long-term investor of Wilmar, the currency translation (which is reflected in the Total Comprehensive Income) will matter as it drives the Net Asset Value per share.

Dividend yield is estimated to be 3.9%, which is quite decent. On the other hand, should investors go for capital appreciation? This is a tough question to answer. The total comprehensive income may be affected by the performances of US dollar versus Rupiah and Renminbi. As such, we should see plenty of volatility for Wilmar share price in 2026. In this regard, I reckon Wilmar shares may be trading at between $3.60 to $4.00 range. I foresee US dollar to continue its weakness against Renminbi due to the erratic foreign and trade policy by US President Donald Trump.

In my own view, Wilmar could be concentrating its firepower on the Food Products segment, especially in the massive China and India markets. That could be the reason for its China and India IPOs. But if investors were to take a big picture view, essentially Wilmar is building its investment moat across the agribusiness value chain in the world largest importers of palm oil – China and India. In the long run, Wilmar’s market share in China and India would enable the Group to leapfrog to another league, given the sheer size of the Asia market. Till then, enjoy the ride.

Congratulations on your first step to becoming part of SG Wealth Builder community! For a one-off payment of $100, you can get full access to all the articles and enjoy the benefits of SG Wealth Builder Membership.

The full benefits and privileges of SG Wealth Builder Membership:

1. Access to the latest premium articles of SG Wealth Builder
2. Email notifications of latest blog articles
3. Request for coverage on stocks, insurance and other personal financial topics

Note: After payment is made, you will be prompted with registration form to create your user-id and personal password.