SIA share price in trouble

Time flies! It has been nearly three years since my last deep dive into SIA on 14 June 2023. Back then, the carrier was soaring on a post-pandemic tailwind, with SIA share price peaking at $7.80 just two days later. Fast forward to April 2026, the landscape has changed dramatically with the Iran war causing fuel price to spike. While SIA continues to fly record passenger numbers, SIA share price has suffered volatile swings and a failure to reclaim those 2023 highs. In this article, I will share why SIA share price could be in trouble.

It is well-known that SIA has spent decades trying to enter India market through its joint venture with Tata, Vistara, since 2015. Following Tata’s acquisition of the state-owned Air India in early 2022, SIA and Tata agreed to merge Vistara into Air India. In my view, the deal is a double-edged sword. While India provides massive hinterland for SIA to grow, it also exposes SIA to significant risk.

As of this month, Air India has reported record losses (roughly S$3 billion for the 2025/26 financial year). Given SIA’s 25.1% stake in Air India, this represented an estimated loss of S$750 million for SIA. The SIA-Air India saga in 2026 is almost a perfect rhyme of the Singtel-Bharti Airtel crisis of 2019/2020. Back then, Bharti Airtel was hit by a massive regulatory blow and a brutal price war with Reliance Jio. Singtel had to take a massive non-cash impairment of nearly S$2 billion, dragging their profits to a record low.

It took Bharti Airtel more than 5 years to survive the price war in India. Today, Airtel went from “surviving” to “thriving”, providing Singtel a massive “ATM” to fund growth. It remains to be seen if Air India would turn out to be an “ATM” for SIA but the Indian market is too big to ignore. Additionally, Air India is a strategic asset for SIA to prevent its Middle East rivals (Emirates, Qatar, Etihad) from dominating the Indian passenger flows.

As a matter of fact, SIA enjoyed robust passenger traffic in March 2026 due to the Middle East conflict. Combined passenger carriage increased 14.9% year-on-year to 3.8 million passengers, representing a new monthly record for the Group. On this note, Air India could be a vital key to unlock growth in the long-term.

While the Middle East conflict has been a tailwind for SIA, it also triggered largest energy supply shock in history as the Strait of Hormuz has turned the energy market upside down. Investors must be horrified to learn that fuel prices surged past US$100 per barrel in early March and peaked as high as US$126. As of April 25, 2026, it’s hovering around US$105–US$106, roughly a 60% increase compared to this time last year.

But what really walloped SIA share price was the spike in jet fuel, which purportedly nearly doubled to US200 per barrel. The surge in jet fuel caused SIA share price to decline from $7.20 on 27 February 2026 (the start of the Iran war) to the current $6.40. In this article, I will share my insight on SIA share price in 2026.

Note that this is an opinion article and not meant to be a financial advice. Please do your due diligence or engage financial advisors before investing in the stock market. Furthermore, I am not vested and have never invested in SIA before. Whether SIA share price will surge or collapse has no impact on me. Thus, this article is not meant to induce readers to make any form of investment decisions.

SIA share price faces destiny

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