SG Wealth Builder

2017 is a milestone year for Jumbo Group as the F&B outfit celebrates its 30^th anniversary. Listed in SGX Catalist only in 2015, Jumbo counts sovereign wealth fund, Temasek Holdings and Osim founder, Ron Sim, among its major shareholders. Temasek Holdings has a stake of 1.24% while Ron Sim holds 10%. With such strong support from institutional investors, is Jumbo Group a safe bet for retail investors and is it worth the effort to invest in this counter?

Share performance

In my last article in December 2016, I wrote that the share price was on bullish form. Indeed, there was a minor bull run which saw Jumbo share price surging to a peak of $0.78 in February 2017. Subsequently, the shares went on a correction mode and tumbled to a low of $0.54. It was only in recent weeks that the share price recovered to $0.60 level.

Despite its share performance, I like the growth story of Jumbo Group. The revenue had been growing consistently from $87.6 million in FY2012 to $136 million in FY2016, demonstrating management’s track record in growing the company. For the 9 months ending in FY2017, the revenue amounted to $106 million. Based on projection, it is likely that total revenue for FY2017 would surpass the previous years.

Festive season is only two months away but for many SPH staff, there is nothing to look forward to nor cheer about this year. Within a month of taking over as the new CEO, Ng Yat Chung announced the shocking decision to accelerate the culling of 10% of its workforce. Originally, the 2016 plan was to carry out the lay-offs over two years. Now, the decision is to bite the bullet and complete the SPH retrenchments by end of this year.

The SPH retrenchments come at a time when the media giant is struggling big time to adapt to the disruptions brought forth by technology. In the latest full year financial report, SPH reported net profit of $350.1 million, 32% higher than last year. But upon delving deeper into the financial results, the performance of the core business (the media segment) was not so rosy after all.

Operating revenue declined 8.2% year-on-year to $1.03 billion. But of more alarm was that the media segment clocked in the worst performance among the business divisions for the operating revenue – a drop of 13%. In terms of profit, the media segment also registered a decrease of a whopping 42% to $114 million due to lower income from the advertisements.

For the longest time, home-grown multinational group, Haw Par share price had been in laggard form. Although the business fundamentals had been consistently good over the years, the share price had been hovering way below its Net Asset Value (NAV) of $12.00. But in 2017, Haw Par share price suddenly came to life and roar ahead to reach a record high of $12.28 recently.

Founded by the Aw brothers in the early 19^th century, Haw Par is well-known for its Tiger Balm oilment products. However, the family business went through a tumultuous period in the 1970s when massive irregularities almost led to a spectacular collapse of the company. The government of Singapore had to intervene and pulled in the late Michael Fam to restore order.

Following the crisis, there was a three-way battle vying for the control of Haw Par between Hong Leong Group, Jack Chia Limited, and United Overseas Bank (UOB) headed by Wee Cho Yaw. In 1981, merger wizard Wee Cho Yaw emerged victory in the fight and the rest is history.

Under the brilliant leadership of Wee Cho Yaw, Haw Par grew from strength to strength and was transformed into a diversified conglomerate with operating business in healthcare, leisure, property and investments.

On 4 October, SIA Engineering Company shares tumbled to 6-year low following news of JP Morgan’ sale. Share price fell in the early morning of trading to $3.15 before recovering to $3.20 level. In my opinion, the correction is long overdue as the business outlook for the MRO giant has considerably dimmed in recent years with the entry-into-service of new aircraft requiring much less maintenance works.

Financial results for 1Q2017/18 revealed that profit declined 82% to $36.2 million. The huge decline was because of the absence of divestment gain in last year (SIA Engineering divested 10% stake in Hong Kong Aero Engine Services Ltd (“HAESL”) to Rolls-Royce Overseas Holdings Limited (“RROH”) and Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company Limited (“HAECO”)).

However, even after excluding the impact of the divestment in the quarter ended 30 June 2016, profit for the current quarter of $36.2 million was $1.8 million or 4.7% lower. Revenue also remained flat, at $272.8 million. Although the results were not exactly that disappointing, they seemed to suggest that SIA Engineering business fundamentals might have peaked.

To be fair to the management, SIA Engineering had tried to engineer growth in view of the challenging operating environment. Last year, SIA Engineering began to [This is a premium article.

The past two years had been of great chaos for SingPost as it endured a significant management upheaval, a special audit, massive impairment of an overseas acquisition and adjustment of a long-standing company dividend policy.  For a country that prides itself of being world-class efficient, the mess in Singapore’s national postman certainly raised a lot of eyebrows among concerned investors.

On looking back, the appointment of Dr Wolfgang Baier as CEO back in 2011 could be a knee-jerk attempt to re-invent the mailing company into an e-commerce company in light of consistently falling revenue from domestic mails. His appointment was itself surprising given his young age and the perceived lack of C-suite experience.

When Wolfgang was appointed as CEO, he was only 37 and was from a management consulting firm, McKinsey & Company. Given SingPost’s venerable standing in the industry, attracting a more experienced business leader should not be a challenge. To be frank, I have no objections to foreign talents taking on top positions in Singapore companies. However, Wolfgang lasted only four years and resigned abruptly in end 2015, leaving Mr Mervyn Lim to cover his CEO duties for one year.

During Wolfgang’s tenure, SingPost had mixed financial performance, with net profit falling from $160 million in 2011 to $141 million in 2013 and then rising to $161 million in 2015.

Suntec REIT share price is enjoying some sort of bullish form in recent months. The share price hit a 2-year high in July after the announcement of a 50% interest in Premium Grade office in Melbourne. However, a look at the recent financial results indicated things may not be so rosy after all for the venerable REIT. Total return for 2Q17 was actually a decrease of 23% compared to last year. So why did the share price rise and is Suntec REIT a value trap?

Suntec REIT portfolio

Being one of the first REITs to be established in Singapore, Suntec REIT was listed on the SGX mainboard on 9 December 2004. Besides having a respectable history, the real estate investment trust also boosts a unique portfolio of properties comprising office and retail spaces.

Suntec REIT owns Suntec City mall and certain office units in Suntec Towers One, Two and Three and the whole of Suntec Towers Four and Five, which form part of the integrated commercial development known as “Suntec City”. The property portfolio also comprises 60.8 per cent effective interest in Suntec Singapore Convention & Exhibition Centre (“Suntec Singapore”), a one-third interest in One Raffles Quay (“ORQ”) and a one-third interest in Marina Bay Financial Centre Towers 1 and 2, and the Marina Bay Link Mall (collectively known as “MBFC Properties”) and 30.0 per cent interest in 9 Penang Road (formerly known as Park Mall).

Since 2008, the shares of home-grown healthcare provider, Raffles Medical Group, went on a rampage bull run, rising from $0.56 to almost $5.00 in 2015. The mighty surge in share price had created much wealth for many of its long-time investors. Recently, the shares came under siege and experienced a serious loss of form.

Against the above backdrop, several readers wrote in to discuss about the outlook for this SGX stock. In this article, I will share some of my views and insights on Raffles Medical.

“I like RMG but, like you, have resisted at prices say 1-2 months ago. It would be really valuable if you could share what you feel a fair value or target price might be?” – Georgie

“Wonderful article! Agree with your point of view on the soundness of Raffles Medical. With reference to your article, I have 2 questions.

1. Is there any particular reason or calculation that led you to the specific target price of $0.80 (or $0.60 in your previous article)? Assuming a similar profit, the PE ratio would be around 20, which is quite low for a healthcare stock, especially for RMG considering its stable growth.
2. Given that the overall global markets seem inflated, and may undergo a correction, would you recommend keeping RMG during the recession (as a defensive stock) or to pull out your investments altogether to hold in cash and bonds?”

mm2 Asia is one of the most exciting prospects to grace Singapore stock market in many years. Within two years of listing in the Catalist, the entertainment outfit has witnessed such explosive growth that it ascended to the SGX mainboard on 7 August 2017. Along the way, it has also attracted investment from StarHub.

In 2014, when the company, through its IR agency, requested me to help them promote free tickets for their Jack Neo’s movie, “Ah Boys to Men”, I didn’t really take notice of this company. Fast forward three years later, the shares had been on a red hot bullish run since IPO.

On 19 May 2017, mm2 Asia announced that the company is in discussions with Village Cinemas Australia Pty Ltd (“Village Cinemas”) for the purchase by the Group of Village Cinemas’ entire stake in Dartina Development Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong which holds the Golden Village Cinema business in Singapore.

However, the transaction did not materialize. According to mm2 Asia, “Village Cinemas Australia was unable to procure fulfilment of certain conditions under the Shareholders Agreement entered into between Village Cinemas Australia and their existing coshareholder of Dartina Development Limited, and the deal could not be completed”.

Being M1 customer, I like its unlimited free calls to three M1 numbers to local voice calls. Because of this innovative product, I have been its customers for many years. This is the power of subscription for a telecommunication company. In fact, mobile subscription is considered the most important investment moat for a telecommunication company because the motivation to switch to another mobile phone carrier is low once a customer subscribed to its data plan. However, as an investor, I would never invest in M1 shares.

From almost $4.00 in 2015, M1’ share price plunged to $1.73 lately. Being the smallest player, M1 faces the biggest risk of shrinking market share with the entry of new competitor, TPG Telecom. To make matter worse, Singapore market is very small and saturated.

According to Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA), the mobile penetration rate in Singapore is about 150%, making Singapore one of the most well-connected countries in the world. This means that some of the subscribers may be using more than one line. Being the smallest player, it is not surprising that outlook for M1 is worrying.

With falling share price, investors may be wondering if it is the right time to buy M1 shares on the cheap.

Can Noble Group turn the tide and weather the storm? The embattled commodity trader is currently fighting for its life as it faces an epic swim-or-sink battle. The latest financial results revealed that the nightmare, which started two years ago, is set to continue.

Once the brightest star in the Singapore stock market, Noble Group market capitalization was worth a mighty $10 billion. In its heyday, it reigned supremacy and was even regarded as the world’s top commodity trader, alongside rival Glencore. For Singapore Exchange (SGX), it was indeed an honor for Noble Group to be listed in Singapore, even though it is a Hong Kong-based company.

The nightmare

Those good old days must be dreamy for investors now as its market capitalization shrank to an alarming $460 million. The rot started two years ago when an unknown financial blogger, Iceberg Research, accused Noble Group of accounting malpractices. That astonishing allegation led to a series of vicious short-selling attacks and precipitated the start of the downfall of Noble Group.

Prior to the release of the latest quarterly results, management has [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only.

Once upon a time, there were three shining forces in Singapore stock market. Osim’s Ron Sim, Creative Technologies’ Sim Wong Hoo and The Hour Glass’ Jannie Chan used to dominate the entrepreneur scene. Together, the trio had won numerous awards for creating outstanding household brands. As a young boy, I have deep admiration for these business pioneers but Jannie Chan stood out among the three of them because of what she had done for The Hour Glass.

The Early Years

In the 80s and 90s, female entrepreneurs were almost unheard of, much less successful female entrepreneurs. The corporate and business community used to be dominated by males. Of course, there were female leaders but they were the exception rather than the norms.

Widely credited for co-founding The Hour Glass, Jannie Chan has been instrumental in building the luxury watch retailer into a SGX-listed company with international presence in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and Malaysia. Therefore, it pains me to read of her current plight because she had been my source of inspiration for several decades. Having achieved so much with The Hour Glass, I thought she deserved more during her twilight years.

In recent years, Jannie Chan had been involved in various legal disputes.