Author: sgwealthbuilder

As the year-end festive season approaches, investors of Singapore Airlines (SIA) have little to cheer about as SIA share price plunged to epic low of $9.17 on 30 October 2018. The last times that SIA share price was traded at such abysmal level were during the 2001’s terrorist attacks in United States and 2003’s SARS outbreak. Both events were black swan events that affected the industry immensely and changed the aviation landscape forever. But hey we are not having any crisis now, aren’t we?

As one of the major components among the prestigious Straits Times Index (STI), SIA is one of the biggest blue chips in the stock market. But investing in this leading light of SGX is not so straightforward as challenging operating environment and industry shifts make this stock highly unpredictable.

Given that SIA is the pride of our nation, can investors really sleep well with its stock? Are there any dark forces behind the recent meltdown of SIA share price? In this article, I will share my insights on the prospects for SIA share price and also explain why the ROE has always been terribly low.

Big boys fled SIA shares?

A review of market data on institutional funds revealed an ominous trend for SIA share price.

On 4 December 2018, Dow Jones crashed 800 points due to concerns over the intriguing trade wars between United States and China. The devastating decline in Dow Jones wiped off billion of dollars from the stock market as investors ran for their lives. Evidently, the spectre of a recession looms large, casting a dark shadow on Wall Street as investors are not convinced of the trade tariffs ceasefire.

The latest stock market rout came as Dow Jones emerged from a black October in 2018 which saw Dow Jones plummeted from 26,800 to 24,400. The massive decline of Dow Jones must have freaked out investors new to the game. But then again, it is important to note that Dow Jones had one of the longest bull runs in stock market history, surging from 7,000 points in 2009 to a high of 26,600 in January 2018.

Obviously, what goes up must come down. Investors must brace themselves for such corrections and avoid making rash moves that could result in losses. Indeed, it turns out that 2018 is a year of revelation as Dow Jones had experienced serious bouts of corrections.

On 5 February 2018, US Dow Jones plunged nearly 1,200 points, the biggest single-day decline on record.

Is this the best window of opportunity to enter First REIT? The unit price of the health-care service provider had taken a severe knock after crashing 16% from 15 to 20 November 2018. Such devastating decline is unheard of among S-REITs and perhaps, illustrated a strange dark chapter for First REIT.

For sure, First REIT is widely regarded as one of the most established S-REITs and possesses a proven track record of solid distributions. First REIT was listed on the SGX mainboard on 11 December 2006. Since IPO, the unit price of First REIT had experienced an explosive bull run, surging from an IPO price of $0.53 to a peak of $1.47 in 2015.

Even with the recent correction, long-term investors should be laughing all the way to the bank because of the mighty unit price appreciation and the long history of distributions paid out.

Notwithstanding the above, many investors should be having difficulty sleeping well at night as unfolding events threaten to derail the growth prospects for First REIT. Out of nowhere, First REIT unit price suffered an unexpected train wreck. Should investors start running for their lives? Or should investors stay put and hope for a windfall from a potential fire sale by major shareholder, Lippo Karawaci?

Despite being hailed as the world largest listed rubber supply chain manager, Halcyon Agri is ironically seldom covered by stock analysts in Singapore. In recent years, the company had experienced quite a massive transformation that saw them being acquired by China big boy, Sinochem. As a result, total revenue rocketed from $635 million in FY2014 to an amazing $2.66 billion in FY2017. Nonetheless, Halcyon Agri share price suffered a serious loss of form recently. What on earth has happened?

In investing, the key to winning is investing in companies with top market positions because you would want to invest in companies with competitive advantages and investment moats. Halcyon Agri has certainly positioned itself well by becoming the biggest listed rubber supply chain manager. But this does not mean that this counter is low-risk. On the contrary, the volatility of Halcyon Agri share price had been giving investors plenty of sleepless nights in 2018.

As a commodity supply chain player, Halcyon Agri share price can be vulnerable to the volatility of commodity prices. What this means is that market timing is important. So, you must set appropriate entry and exit strategies to avoid losing your pants.

Profile of Halcyon Agri

Halcyon Agri’s business model is unique because it not only procures raw natural rubber from smallholders to feed their processing facilities, the company also owns about 122,000 hectares of rubber plantations in West Africa and Malaysia.

From a high of $1.86 in early 2018, PRC-based Yanlord share price suffered a severe decline to reach a startling low of $1.29. The crash of Yanlord share price is particularly mystifying given that it came on the back of a consistently solid financial results over the last 5 years.

Is the current Yanlord share price reflecting the true value of the real estate company or is the God of Wealth playing a trick on investors? To be frank, the issue facing Yanlord is not company-specific. Rather, the whole S-chip industry is currently suffering from a crisis of confidence among investors.

Loss of faith in S-chips

The lack of confidence in S-chips is not new and has been a well-known recurring problem in Singapore stock market for the past decade. It had been a devastating period of time as investors had lost much wealth when errant S-chips either went into financial difficulties or were “creative” in their accounting. As a matter of fact, the SGX Watch-list is littered with so many dead S-chips while there were cases of S-chips embroiled in corporate scandals.

Recent move by SGX regulators to require new S-chips to have cornerstone investors or state-owned enterprise brings cold comfort to investors as well.

Golden Agri Resources holds a special place in my heart. This is the only blue chip which I tried to trade and subsequently lost $1200 in a single day more than 10 years ago. I can still remember that raw feeling when cutting losses on this counter. At the end of the day, I knew that I had made a mistake and decided to move on. Incidentally, Golden Agri Resources share price hit a low of 10 year recently. So I decided to initiate a review on this palm oil producer.

On looking back, losing money in stocks is never a good feeling but I had gained a lot of valuable lessons. Firstly, I had mentioned that there is no such a thing as good or bad stocks because in life, there are only flawed or right strategies.

At that point of time, I suffered losses on Golden Agri Resources because I had not done sufficient homework. I had failed to see that Golden Agri Resources operate in a cyclical industry and the shares are therefore prone to volatility. If I had held on the stock for a few more years, I would have enjoyed substantial capital gain because Golden Agri Resources share price had ridden on the wave of high crude oil prices and surged to new highs.

Call it sheer madness or whatsoever. Within the span of two days, Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) share price plunged by nearly 50%. Investors with weaker hearts might have suffered serious heart attacks watching in horror at the meltdown of Asian Pay Television (APTT) share price. After all, you don’t often get to see value of business trusts being eroded by so much in a matter of days. Well, that’s investing in SGX stocks for you.

In my previous article, Asian Pay Television Trust dances with the wolves, I wrote that investors should “hope for the best but expect the worst”. I was also bearish on this counter as I was not convinced that the management had the ability to turn around the trust. My view was that the unit price would come under further pressure. Recent Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) share price vindicated my thesis.

As the saying goes, cheap things don’t come good and good things don’t come cheap. When a business trust is trading at such abysmal level, the price level may not represent value. There are investors who insisted on accumulating more units of Asian Pay Television Trust instead of cutting losses. Well, they had better be sure of what they are buying into.

Another day, another market correction. The recent stock market performance must have freaked out many investors new to the game. Long-term investors and financial bloggers should be having great difficulties sleeping well at night as their stock portfolio plunged in value. Should stock investors run for their lives and turn to bonds like Frasers Property Bond and CapitaMall Bond?

In the pursuit of investment returns, many had ignored the age-old wisdom of wealth diversification. In this article, the investment merits of retail bonds (Frasers Property Bond and CapitaMall Bond) and government-linked bonds are discussed.

Dark side of bonds

Most wealth builders dismiss bond investing because of the perceived low yields and illiquidity. Furthermore, investing in bonds is less exciting than stocks, which is comparatively more dynamic. In my perspective, I am not a big fan of bonds either because I am currently at the asset accumulation life-stage. However, as a fixed-income asset, bonds could offer a viable form of financial instrument, especially for retirement planning purposes.

In 2018, Temasek Holdings decided to join in the fun by offering the Astrea IV Private Equity Bond (4.35%) and the Temasek Retail Bond with 2.7% interest. The difference between the two is that the former is not guaranteed by Temasek Holdings or its subsidiaries while the latter is guaranteed by Temasek Holdings.

The past is history and the future remain a mystery. Would Sembcorp Marine continue to fulfil its destiny as the world no.2 oil rig builder or would it collapse in style? Sembcorp Marine share price is set for a roller-coaster ride as the company faces yet another explosive full-year loss for FY2018. The last time Sembcorp Marine reported an annual loss was in FY2015, which saw it recording a massive loss of $289 million.

For sure, the winter had lasted longer than expected. It has been four years since Sembcorp Marine share price was trading at $4.00. Currently trading at $1.66, Sembcorp Marine share price is a shadow of its former self.

Although Sembcorp Marine is operating in a cyclical industry, there is no guarantee that the share price would restore to its heyday form. Should investors throw in the towel or keep faith with the management? In my view, I fear the worst for Sembcorp Marine share price if things do not improve in the coming quarters because of its grim financial data. In this regard, investors should brace themselves for a potential meltdown of Sembcorp Marine share price.

A whole new world

On looking back, 2018 has proven to be another false dawn for Sembcorp Marine as recovering oil price has not revived the global demand for new oil rigs.

Since my last coverage on 28 March 2018, OUE share price had a devastating spell of run. Share price nose-dived from $1.80 to a shocking low of $1.37. After being walloped left, right, centre, OUE share is currently trading at a stunning 14-year low. Even during the dark days of The Great Financial Crisis, OUE share price had never crashed to such abysmal level. What could have happened?

A quick look at OUE shares revealed that the average 3-month volume stood at a mere 0.33mm. This means that OUE shares are thinly traded and may present some form of liquidity issue for long-term investors. In addition, despite having a market capitalization of $1.23 billion, this counter is seldom heavily shorted over the past three months. This means that even the big boys cannot be bothered with this real estate giant. Is OUE a value trap for retail investors?

Troubles come in troops

In all respect, 2018 has proven to be a mighty difficult year for most real estate developers in Singapore. The increase of Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) to 12% and the tightening of loan limits had dampened demand for investment properties.  Of course, the unexpected cooling measures knocked the wind out of many listed property developers’ share price.

Against the backdrop of market correction, the share price of numerous Singapore blue chips have retreated to new lows over the past one year. But one shining stock stands out among the sea of red. Of note-worthy, iFAST share price runs against the turn of tide and continues to be bullish despite headwinds in the market.

And I am still slapping myself for missing this multi-bagger as iFAST share price went on a majestic bull run since mid-June 2017. The stunning pace of iFAST share price caught many investors by surprise. Can iFAST share price continue to run? A lot will depend on how the management write the next chapter of growth for this enigmatic listed company, which has a lofty ambition of hitting $100 billion group asset under administration by 2028.

The attractive aspects of iFAST are that it is debt-free, has strong cash-flow and a scalable business that thrives in good times and bad times. Apart from Singapore Exchange, I struggle to find similar stock with such traits. In addition, iFAST has managed to reinvent itself successfully through significant capability enhancements recently. Henceforth, this article will examine whether iFAST share price is a good buy at current price level.

Being the only listed casino operator, Genting Singapore stands out as a rare breed of billion dollar enterprise among the pantheon of banks, GLCs and Reit counters in Singapore Exchange. Current market capitalization is $11.4 billion, while liquidity for this counter is also excellent, with average 3 month volume of 32.33 mm. Genting Singapore is also crazily rich, with $4 billion cash on hand. Given such pedigree, it certainly makes sense for investors to invest in Genting Singapore shares.

However, since the start of the year, Genting Singapore share price has corrected by 30%. The plunge in Genting Singapore share price had given investors a wild ride, not least plenty of sleepless nights. Indeed, it had been a turbulent period for Genting Singapore as it had to retrench 400 staff in 2016 as a result of regional economic slowdown and bad debts problem. Should investors run for their lives or hang on for their dear lives?

While the past has been a treacherous journey for Genting Singapore investors, the future could be an exciting one as the casino operator prepares its bid to enter Japan, the world’s third largest economy which recently just legalized gambling.

In my opinion, Genting Singapore share price is currently trading at attractive level and this could be an interesting counter to invest because of the huge positive catalyst for Genting Singapore share price.

Nowadays, it is not surprising that many of the blue chips in Singapore Exchange suffer from poor stock performance because of the global headwinds and challenging operating environment. But this is certainly not the case for SingPost share price, which plunged after the announcement of 40% decline in net profit for Q1FY18/19.

Upon the release of the financial result in August 2018, investors sent SingPost share price reeling from $1.38 to as low as $1.03. Till now, SingPost share price has not recovered its form and is on course to retreat below the $1.00 mark. Should investors run for their lives?

Before writing this counter off, it should be noted that Alibaba’s Jack Ma is a major shareholder of SingPost, with stake amounting to 14.5%.

Question now is: will Jack Ma buy over SingTel’s stake of 21% in SingPost? Given that Alibaba’s stakes were bought in two tranches – 2014 and 2017 – at SingPost share price of about $1.40, the current valuation seems attractive for a surprise buyout. In life, never say never. Just look at M1 buyout offer by Keppel and SPH a couple of weeks ago.

Those who enter at current SingPost share price should be betting on potential Alibaba’s acquisition but a lot actually hinges on whether SingTel wants to unlock value through the divestment of stake in SingPost.

As an investment blogger, I think every stock deserves an unbiased coverage, no matter how good or bad the business or management performs. Thus, it is with an open mind that I decided to initiate a review on the investment merits of Imperium Crown, a Catalist-listed company that is based in Singapore.

Although Imperium Crown falls under the radar of many stock analysts, its story is nothing short of intriguing. Those who have invested in this counter would have a roller-coaster ride as the share price plummeted from $0.14 to $0.03. The stock would have been put under the SGX’s Watch List long time ago if not for the fact that this ruling is not applicable for Catalist-listed stocks.

When you have a stock trading at crazily cheap level like Imperium Crown, you do not know if there is any value left in the shares. After all, cheap does not equate to value. When investing in companies, there is a need to identify their competitive edge and then assess if the business fundamentals provide the sound basis for investments.

For investors of Imperium Crown, they would look back and lament that it is almost a case of a successful turnaround as management had engineered a brief success in a very niche market.

On 11 October 2018, Wall Street ripped the world apart with Dow Jones plunging by 832 points. Local stock market index, Straits Times Index (STI) took the cue and fell by 84 points. The sharp decline marked the sixth consecutive day of losses for local stock market. Overall, it was a sea of red for SGX stocks.

The chaos in the market came on the back of new legislation by Monetary Authority of Singapore to report short selling activities. The move is aimed at reducing significant market disorders and improve transparency. Effective 1 October 2018, short sellers are not only required to disclose to SGX their short sell orders, but also to MAS if they hit the short sale threshold.

Whether the new policy would be effective in curbing the big boys’ movements remain to be seen. But I reckon the data collated would be helpful in allowing the authorities to do data analytics and make timely interventions during market chaos.

STI down syndrome

Since the start of October, STI has dropped by 200 points. At the rate of decline, STI appears to be on course to retreat below the support level of 3000 level. Is it the right time to buy SGX stocks now?

I can imagine SingTel CEO Chua Sock Koong rubbing her hands in glee as she read news of how arch rival StarHub struggles amid the unprecedent shake-up in the telco industry. Just months after StarHub failed to renegotiate contract with popular Discovery Channel, SingTel snagged the rights to broadcast the channels in October 2018. SingTel victory must be bitter to StarHub as the latter also lost the English Premier League broadcast to the leading telco more than ten years ago. Then, there is the StarHub retrenchment.

In my previous article, “StarHub share price to plunge after being booted out of STI”,  I have highlighted how StarHub share price is expected to face destiny after being demoted from the prestigious Straits Times Index.

But the announcement of the StarHub retrenchment was a bomb-shell and illustrated a dark chapter of the local telco industry. Perennially seen as one of the top dividend stocks in Singapore Exchange, should StarHub investors throw in the towel?

StarHub massacre

News of StarHub retrenchment raised eyebrows because of the sheer number of culling cited. According to the company’s press release, 300 full-time employees will be axed no later than the end of October 2018. The StarHub retrenchment is part of a so-called “strategic transformation programme”, which is expected to realise $210 million in savings over a three-year period from 2019.

In Singapore, dividend investing has been gaining popularity among wealth builders seeking yield for their investment capital. However, dividend investing may not be so straightforward because there are many factors to consider when investing in stocks. This means that there is a need to delve deeper into a company business fundamentals instead of just using a screener to come out with a list of top dividend stocks to invest in.

In my previous articles, I have shared my insights on the top three dividend stocks in Singapore: Asian Pay TV Trust (dividend yield: 19.4% – 26%), Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (dividend yield: 9.9% – 12.9%) and HPH Trust (9.8% – 12.8%). In those articles, I have highlighted that although these counters offer mind-boggling high yields, there are risks involved as well.

In this article, I will share my research on the top 5 dividend stocks with excellent Return on Equity (ROE). The criteria used are minimum of 5% dividend yield for the past 5 years and minimum of 10% achieved for the past 5 years. The reason why I decided to refine the search is because I believe management’s efficiency in growing a company is important as well. A company that consistently has high dividend pay outs may not be sustainable if its growth lacks resilient in the context of a competitive market.

Dividend investing offers investors an opportunity of building wealth through passive income derived from periodic dividends. In recent years, real estate investment trusts (REITs) had emerged as a favourite among investors hungry for yields. However, simply looking at a stock or REIT from the perspective of dividend yield without gaining a deeper understanding of the business fundamentals can be dangerous. In this article, we will examine whether Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust is a value trap.

As the adage goes, high returns comes with high risks. There are REITs like Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust that offer yields above 5%. But whether such pay outs are sustainable is another issue. You also need to pay attention to other factors like the debts, growth momentum, management efficiency and tenancy profile. Sometimes macroeconomic plays a part too.

Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, the quantitative easing by United States led to a slew of hot money flowing to emerging markets like Thailand and Indonesia. The aim of these hot funds had been to seek high yields that these emerging markets offered. Time flies and now the United States’ economy is improving. As a result, the Federal Reserves is deleveraging balance sheet, causing funds to flow back to United States.

It is the right time to invest in SGX? Share price has fallen from a high of $8.50 in January 2018 to the current $7.30 level. The volatility in the share price is not surprising given that the financial market is very sensitive to the economy condition.

Over the years, I have seen SGX become more business-friendly vis-à-vis the antagonistic approach taken by the previous CEO, Magnus Bocker. The recent new rule on the dual-class listing of shares and the resumption of midday break in the securities market are just some of the examples of SGX trying to improve its corporate image. I am also excited over its on-going consultation to reduce the settlement cycle and streamlining of quarterly reporting. These changes would go a long way in making the investment community a progressive one in the long-term.

With dividend yield of 4.1%, I do think that current valuation may represent good opportunity to buy and hold the shares for the long-term. But do you know that apart from a leading regional stock bourse, SGX is also the largest exchange in Asia for the listing of international bonds?

Volatility is good for SGX

If investors look back, they would realize that the net profit for FY2008 was at $478 million, much higher than FY2018’s $363 million.

As a hospitality S-Reit heavyweight, Ascott REIT offers a form of passive income stream and exposure to a geographically diversified portfolio. Henceforth, for a period of time, I was very tempted to invest in this REIT supremo as revenue for Ascott REIT surged from $357 million in FY2014 to $496 million. Net income powered from $122 million to $214 million in the same period.

Indeed, it appears to me that investing Ascott REIT is an absolute safe bet. But certain aspect of its business strategies made me changed my mind. In this article, I will share my insights on Ascott REIT.

Profile of Ascott REIT

Since its establishment in 2006, Ascott REIT has grown into a top S-Reit with market capitalization of $2.33 billion and total assets worth a cool $5.3 billion. As a leading serviced residence player, its investment moat lies in having 11,430 apartment units across 37 cities.

Part of the reason for the success story of Ascott REIT is its unique business model of maintaining a balanced “stable income” and “growth income” management contracts for its property portfolio. I also love its growth strategies of acquisitions from its Sponsor (20 pipeline properties via ROFR) and the continuous asset enhancement initiatives to increase the market value of its properties.

It is the return of DBS stock. On 21 September 2018, DBS stock surged to a month’s high to reach $26. The performance of DBS stock is remarkable, given that the counter rose by 7% within 10 days. The rally followed the recent issuance of $1billion perpetual securities.

While DBS stock is still some way off the record high of $31 seen on 31 April 2018, recent data suggested that DBS stock may have been oversold. It is still too early to suggest that DBS stock price is poised for another bull run but recent recovery was supported by several factors.

As the bellwether of the economy, DBS stock price is obviously very volatile and sensitive to market conditions. Thus, I view DBS stock more of a growth stock instead of looking at it from a dividend stock perspective. In this regard, my opinion is that this counter is good to invest, but not ideal to invest and hold. Due to the volatility of bank stocks, the key to making money out of DBS stock is to set appropriate entry and exit strategies.

Then again, there are many critics who may argue that I should not advocate short-term investing or even trading.

From a high of $1.36 in January 2018, unit price of Mapletree Logisitics Trust plunged to the current $1.24 level. The correction must have caused much agony for investors even if the DPU of $0.06 issued in 2018 had been factored in. In my humble opinion, the fall of Mapletree Logistics Trust unit price could be attributed to the equity fund-raising exercises in recent months.

Private Placements

On 19 September 2019, Mapletree Logistics Trust launched yet another private placement to raise estimated proceeds of about $475 million to fund the acquisition of the 5 logistics properties from CWT International Limited. A total of 309,917,000 New Units will be issued pursuant to the Private Placement, at discounted price between $1.196 and $1.234 per new unit.

This is the third private placement by Mapletree Logistics Trust in a row since August 2017. In May 2018, Mapletree Logistics Trusts launched a $220 million private placement to fund the acquisition of a 50.0% interest in each of 11 Hong Kong special purpose vehicles. Prior to that, in August 2017, a massive equity fund-raising consisting of private placement and preferential offering of $670 million was launched to fund the acquisition of Mapletree Logistics Hub Tsing Yi, located at 30 Tsing Yi Road, Hong Kong.