Gold price to hit US$6,000 in 2026?
The berserk run of gold price is a case of “so good its bad”. Year-to-date, gold price has soared an eye-popping 70% to hit a record US$4,500 per troy ounce. The explosive form of gold price in 2025 has left many retail gold buyers frustrated as the high gold prices proved to be a deterrence for precious metal buyers to buy physical gold and silver. Many consumers are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, feverishly hoping for a long-awaited correction in gold price so that they could buy bullion.
Many analysts are forecasting that gold price may hit US$5,000 per troy ounce by fourth quarter of 2026. However, analysts’ forecasts are seldom accurate and often off the beat. This is because the market is often driven by sentiments. Thus, my view is that there is a possibility that gold price may even hit US$6,000 in 2026 due to a cocktail of tailwinds.
Of course, there are critics who debate whether the current bull run of gold price is sustainable in 2026. Obviously, what goes up must come down. Like all investment products, there will be an inevitable boom and bust cycle and gold price is no exception. In this regard, I am waiting for the day of reckoning so that I could buy physical gold. Having said that, I doubt gold price will plummet to US$3,000 per troy ounce even after the bubble bursts.
In my opinion, I believe the correction for gold price could arrive if US Fed decides to pause its interest rate cuts in 2026 arising from the persistently high inflation in US.
Central banks driving up gold price?
Triggered by geopolitical conflicts like the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Palestine wars, central banks have been piling up on gold for reserves due to its safe haven status. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have accumulated over 1,000t of gold in each of the last three years. This is a significant increase from the 400-500t average over the preceding decade.
According to the World Gold Council, net purchases by central banks through October totalled 254t. This is at a slower rate in comparison to the previous three years, possibly due to the soaring gold prices. Yet, World Gold Council expected most central bank to increase gold reserves in the year ahead.
Among the central banks, Singapore’s MAS appears to buck the trend as it adopts a contrarian approach when it comes to accumulating gold as part of national reserves.
Prior to the rally of gold price on 2025, MAS had been buying gold until April 2024 when it held a record 7.741 million troy ounces in our reserves. That was when gold price started its super bull run as it surged from US$2,378 to the current US$4,347. Since April 2024, MAS has been trimming its gold reserves. As at October 2025, the amount of gold reserves has reduced to 6.58 million troy ounces.
Back of the envelope calculation showed that MAS has made a profit of about S$2.7 billion of profit from the buying and selling of gold. Generally speaking, the MAS is very discreet when it comes to gold buying as it does not make any public announcements over the years. As such, the average gold prices at which the MAS had entered could not be determined. Even though I doubt that the regulator had bought at the lowest prices, the fact that gold price had rocketed after the MAS’ buying vindicated that the purchases were very, very shrewd.
Gold price in super bullish form!
Gold price: flying dragon in the sky!
Golden catalysts
It is quite clear that MAS’s strategy for gold is to buy low and sell high. The data for October to December gold reserves has not been released but I am inclined to believe that MAS has continued to trim the amount of gold reserves. I have always trusted the ability and financial judgement of our Singapore government. Thus MAS’s strategic moves for managing gold reserves serve as a good indicator for me not to buy physical gold in the near term because it is likely that gold price will continue to climb in 2026.
One of the major factors for causing gold to rocket is the US trade tariffs. During the onset of China-US trade war in 2018, gold price has a massive rally. Prior to that, gold had remained stagnant between US$1,100 and US$1,400 for five years. In 2018, U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% tariffs on aluminium imports from most countries, citing national security concerns. US also slapped 25% tariffs on US$34 billion worth of Chinese imports, focusing on machinery, electronics, and auto parts and another 25% tariff on US$16 billion in Chinese goods, targeting semiconductors and chemicals.
The on-going geopolitical tensions between US and China will play a major influence on gold price going forward. Currently, the relationship between US and China is at the lowest point and I honestly doubt that the two superpowers would be able to resolve their conflicts in the foreseeable future.
In a bid to reduce its dependence on US dollars in its foreign exchange reserves, various reports have surfaced that China had bought a staggering US$961 million worth of gold from Russia.
Apart from geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs will be a flashpoint for gold price. Donald Trump’s second stint as US President has heralded sweeping trade tariffs as central tenet of his foreign policy. Goods from all countries to US are subjected to baseline tariffs of 10%. Countries are also subjected to “reciprocal tariffs”, subjected to negotiations between US and various countries.
And then, there is the US Fed interest rate cuts. The Fed began a cycle of rate cuts in 2025, boosting gold prices. Comments from Fed officials also signalled future cuts in 2026, thereby further fuelling gold’s rise. Gold often rises when interest rates are cut (or expected to be cut) because lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making it more attractive than bonds/cash, especially during economic uncertainty or slowdowns, with recent activity showing gold rallying on Fed rate-cut hopes but sometimes pulling back if data suggests cuts are delayed.
Conclusion
So far, all my gold investments were made with UOB Bank. These included physical gold and gold savings account. When buying physical gold from UOB Bank, it is important to note that you must ensure that the physical gold is in its original sealed condition and the original UOB invoice must be presented. In addition, with effect from 30 November 2023, customers must be a UOB account holder in order to purchase physical gold from UOB.
My approach towards gold investment is that of a pragmatic one – buy low and sell high. Given the current bullish gold price, the risk is high to enter now. Then again, trying to forecast the trend of gold price is becoming more and more challenging nowadays. Previously, I had made the bold call of gold price hitting US$3,000 per troy ounce in 2023. That obviously did not happen despite the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts in 2023. Gold price managed to clear the US$3,000 threshold only in March 2025. Since then, nothing seems to hold back gold price as the yellow metal raced past the record US$4,245 in October 2025.
Given the economic uncertainties due to the US trade tariffs and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, gold price should continue to enjoy significant tailwinds in 2026. As such, it certainly requires someone with strong conviction in gold to buy gold. If you are buying physical gold, make sure to buy from a reputable bullion dealer.
In Singapore, two of the most bullion dealers are BullionStar and UOB. The main advantage of BullionStar’s (BSP) is the opportunity to convert your gold savings to physical bullion bars, produced by LBMA refineries, at any time without any extra cost whatsoever. On the other hand, UOB gold savings account cannot be converted to physical gold or gold certificates. The UOB gold savings account is also not backed by physical gold. Till then, enjoy the ride.
