Gold price in super bullish form!

High, high into the sky! Gold price has been in such fantastic form in 2025 that investors are wondering if a bubble is in the making. Year-to-date, gold price has surged an amazing 65%, making it one of the best asset classes for investors. Question now is whether gold race will past US$5,000 per troy ounce in 2026? The incredible form of gold price in 2025 certainly left global investors in bewilderment as gold prices erased records after records.

In 2024, I sold my remaining gold portfolio – a Canadian Gold Maple Leaf bullion that I had purchased from UOB Bank in 2014. The bullion was purchased at $1692 and divested for a profit of $1034. This represented a 61% return for a holding period of 10 years. The rationale for my bullion divestment was purely driven by the current bullish gold price back then.

So far, all my gold investments were made with UOB Bank. These included physical gold and gold savings account. When buying physical gold from UOB Bank, it is important to note that you must ensure that the physical gold is in its original sealed condition and the original UOB invoice must be presented. In addition, with effect from 30 November 2023, customers must be a UOB account holder in order to purchase physical gold from UOB.

My approach towards gold investment is that of a pragmatic one – buy low and sell high. Given the current bullish gold price, I feel that the risk is high to enter now. Then again, trying to forecast the trend of gold price is becoming more and more challenging nowadays. Previously, I had made the bold call of gold price hitting US$3000 per troy ounce in 2023. That obviously did not happen despite the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts in 2023. Gold price managed to clear the US$3,000 threshold only in March 2025. Since then, nothing seems to hold back gold price as the yellow metal raced past the record US$4,245 in October 2025.

Gold price peaked?

The stupendous form of gold price has left many wondering if the precious metal has peaked or ready to conquer another mountain in 2026. Trying to second guess the future movements of gold price is impossible but I do note an interesting gold buying trend by Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

According to the World Gold Council, Singapore’s MAS became the world’s third largest gold buyer for the first nine months of 2023. The central bank added 75 tonnes of gold during that period. According to the MAS website on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, the volume of gold held in our national reserves in December 2022 was 4.94 million troy ounces. 

As at November 2023, the volume of gold held surged to 7.40 million troy ounces. Thus, the increase in gold held in Singapore reserves represented about 50%. This means that within the span of just a month, MAS had increased gold bullion by a significant quantum. More remarkable is that the MAS had bought at the levels between US$1,700 to US$1,900 per troy ounce. At current gold price, the central bank must be laughing all the way to the bank.

MAS continued its gold buying spree until April 2024 when it held a record 7.741 million troy ounces in our reserves. That was when gold price started its super bull run as it surged from US$2,378 to the current US$4,347. Since April 2024, MAS has been trimming its gold reserves. As at September 2025, the amount of gold reserves has reduced to 6.58 million troy ounces.

Back of the envelope calculation showed that MAS has made a profit of about S$2.7 billion of profit from the buying and selling of gold. Generally speaking, the MAS is very discreet when it comes to gold buying as it does not make any public announcements over the years. As such, the average gold prices at which the MAS had entered could not be determined. Even though I doubt that the regulator had bought at the lowest prices, the fact that gold price had rocketed after the MAS’ buying vindicated that the purchases were very, very shrewd.

Gold catalysts

MAS’s strategy for gold is to buy low and sell high. The data for October to December gold reserves has not been released but I am inclined to believe that MAS has trimmed the amount of gold reserves. Clearly, it is a good indicator for me not to buy physical gold because it is likely that gold price will continue to climb in 2026.

One of the major factors for causing gold to rocket is the US trade tariffs. During the onset of China-US trade war in 2018, gold price has a massive rally. Prior to that, gold had remained stagnant between US$1,100 and US$1,400 for five years. In 2018, U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% tariffs on aluminium imports from most countries, citing national security concerns. US also slapped 25% tariffs on US$34 billion worth of Chinese imports, focusing on machinery, electronics, and auto parts and another 25% tariff on US$16 billion in Chinese goods, targeting semiconductors and chemicals.

Donald Trump’s second stint as US President has heralded sweeping trade tariffs as central of his foreign policy. Goods from all countries to US are subjected to baseline tariffs of 10%. Countries are also subjected to reciprocal tariffs, subjected to negotiations between US and various countries.

And then, there is the interest rate cuts.  The Fed has began a cycle of rate cuts in 2025, boosting gold prices. Comments from Fed officials also signaled future cuts in 2026, thereby further fuelling gold’s rise. Gold often rises when interest rates are cut (or expected to be cut) because lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making it more attractive than bonds/cash, especially during economic uncertainty or slowdowns, with recent activity showing gold rallying on Fed rate-cut hopes but sometimes pulling back if data suggests cuts are delayed.

Conclusion

Given the economic uncertainties due to the US trade tariffs, I foresee that gold price could possibly cross the historic US$5,000 milestone. As such level, it certainly requires someone with strong conviction in gold to buy gold. If you are buying physical gold, make sure to buy from a reputable bullion dealer.

In Singapore, two of the most bullion dealers are BullionStar and UOB. The main advantage of BullionStar’s (BSP) is the opportunity to convert your gold savings to physical bullion bars, produced by LBMA refineries, at any time without any extra cost whatsoever. On the other hand, UOB gold savings account cannot be converted to physical gold or gold certificates. The UOB gold savings account is also not backed by physical gold. Till then, enjoy the ride.