The 2013Q1 estimate of 213.1 represents a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, which is a moderation from the 1.8% q-o-q pace we saw in 2012Q4, but suggests that the market prices are still rising, albeit slightly, despite 7 rounds of government cooling measures.
Today, we’re at the record peak of the property cycle since 1965. It does not take a lot of common sense to tell us we need to tread extremely carefully, especially in current uncertain economic climate.
However, this does not mean property investors should simply rush out to buy that new launch property today and hope to cash out in the next few years. The potential downsides are much greater than the upsides, and basing on the price-rental index which is 57% over-valuation (The Economist), buyers and investors today are already paying for future prices years down the road.
I have done my personal investment calculations for the residential market, comparing price versus rental. Even with current low-interest rates imputed, most properties (resale & new) are already fetching negative yields, not to mention when these rate start to rise back to ‘normal’ in future.
Today, the Asian property market (Especially Singapore, Hong Kong & China) is being supported by ‘phoney’ money. Money is printed endlessly in the trillions of dollars by irresponsible governments for their personal political motives. Banks are either lowering their reserve rates or cutting interest rates and these fuelled the transfer of more hot money flows. The money is finding their way into Asia like Singapore, in hopes of so-called higher returns and inflating many asset bubbles. I.e. Singapore, Hong Kong, China.
When a financial crisis erupts (Europe, USA, China crash), these ‘phoney’ money would find their way back ‘home’ faster than a speeding bullet, resulting in severe price deflation and chaos.
As for local properties, invest on cash flow and never capital appreciation.
For myself, I’ve stayed away from our local property market since 2011 and have expanded to USA real estate market. I worked with experienced local USA property investors who are more familiar with the terrain and invested their own money with me.
If you do not have the kind of connections or expertise, then my best wealth advice for property investors TODAY is to leave money in the bank, despite the low-interest deposits. Be patient to take advantage of massive opportunities to grow your wealth within the next few years when prices start tumbling down again.
Please Remember: The Return of Money is more important than the Return on Money in any investments.
SG Wealth Builder