SG Wealth Builder

For a real estate investment trust (REIT) that achieved eleven consecutive years of distribution per unit (DPU) growth, the trust manager of Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) must be doing something right. You don’t simply sleepwalk to such fantastic results with mediocre management.

On looking back, the management has done a great job in growing this S-REIT. Over the last 5 years, FCT had registered total returns of 55.2%, outperforming both the FTSE Straits Times Index and the FTSE REIT Index.  Net Asset Value (NAV) per Unit increased 4.7% year-on-year to $2.02 per unit, due to gains from revaluation of portfolio properties.

Nonetheless, in my point of view, Frasers Centrepoint Trust may be facing a baptism of fire in the coming months. Therefore, it may be prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach before investing in this counter. Read on to find out why.

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It was a “mission impossible” come-back for Creative Technology. On 6 March 2018, I can imagine long-term investors punching the air and screaming in delirious as its share price ripped Singapore stock market apart. Creative Technology shares surged almost 10-fold to hit as high as $9.77 during the trading session.

But for those who have not invested in Creative Technology, it is best to avoid this counter. The latest financial statement revealed that this company is still suffering from huge losses. In fact, if not for the USD32 million legal settlement windfall, there would be massive net losses for 1H2017.

In August 2017, Creative Technology scored a legal victory by suing China’s Huawei over a failed broadband network project in 2012. It was awarded USD36 million by the High Court in 2017. The victory marked the third victory in a row for the Singapore company. It had successfully sued Apple twice for patent infringement for Ipod and Ipad products.

The Lost Decade

On looking back, it was surely a bitter-sweet journey for long-term investors as the local IT company endured a period of “lost decade”. From $40 in 2000 to $1.20 in February 2018, shareholders have every right to be angry with founder, Sim Wong Hoo.

How often do you get to rub shoulders with a VIP like CEO of Singapore Exchange (SGX) and how would you present yourself? During a recent Chinese New Year celebration dinner hosted by SGX, I got a chance to meet the CEO, Mr Loh Boon Chye, who made a surprise appearance. Although it was a brief encounter, my impression of CEO Loh was that he is certainly larger than life and came across as a really humble person. This is in deep contrast to his controversial predecessor, the late Magnus Bocker.

Frankly, I prefer the current CEO because of his business-friendly policies such as dual-class voting shares and the adjustment of quarterly reporting for listed companies. His approach marked a huge change of tone for SGX, which used to be regarded as high-handed among the investment community.

The revolt

On looking back, the past few years had been a period of great chaos for SGX, not least because of the various changes implemented by Magnus Bocker, coupled with major trading disruptions and meltdown of penny stocks. There were heroes on both sides. Evil was everywhere.

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With four Mapletree-sponsored Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Mapletree Logistics Trust sometimes suffered from a tricky identity crisis. The problem is further exacerbated by the numerous REITs in Singapore stock market. Nevertheless, this REIT stands out as being Singapore’s first Asia-focused logistics REIT. After being prompted by a member of SG Wealth Builder, I realize that this could be an interesting counter because of the perpetual bonds issued by Mapletree Logistics Trust.

In my previous article, I shared about Hyflux’s perpetual bonds. But do you know that REIT can also issue perpetual bonds? What are rules concerning REIT perpetual bonds and how does it impact the way investors examine the balance sheet?

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It is akin to winning the battle but losing the war. Current chief executive of Singapore Airlines, Goh Choon Phong, got the top job after upstaging his former boss, Bey Soo Khiang in a four-horse race back in 2011. Bey was the former Chief of Defence Force of Singapore and having lost to his subordinate, resigned promptly from the national carrier.

Goh Choon Phong is the The Chosen One, thats for sure. But whether he is The Special One to take Singapore Airlines to another level is another question altogether. Make no mistake, this is Singapore Airlines we are talking about, the pride of our nation. For someone to lead the company, he must be distinctly special to take on the monstrous task of handling the world top airline. Ideally, he must be someone who possesses that magic to lead and return Singapore Airlines to former glory.

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Since losing $8,000 on China Enersave in 2008, I swore never to touch any S-Chips again in my life. Like many investors, I had bought into S-Chips because of China growth story. But a spate of corporate scandals had given S-Chips a bad reputation that subsequently led to a serious crisis of confidence among investors. Today, I do not believe in the investment merits of S-Chips anymore. Nevertheless, at the request of a member, this article will discuss the case of Midas Holdings.

Corporate Profile

Every stock has its own story. Midas Holdings began life when it was founded in 2000 and listed in Singapore stock exchange in 2004. It also has a secondary listing on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.

As a manufacturer of aluminium alloy extruded products for the passenger rail transportation sector in the PRC, Midas has an established track record of supplying aluminium alloy extruded products to train manufacturers in the rapidly growing passenger rail transportation sector in the PRC since 2003. The Group also exports aluminium alloy extruded products internationally and has been involved in a considerable number of train projects in Europe, Americas and Asia.

Chan Soo Sen

Ten years ago, Midas Holdings created waves in Singapore stock market with a slew of contract wins worth billions of RMB.

It is a case of “return of the king” as DBS Bank staged a comprehensive comeback by announcing an impressive 4^th quarter 2017 results. Marred by net allowances of $815 million in the previous quarter, DBS lost to OCBC in terms of net profit for that quarter. However, DBS managed to redeem itself by announcing a much better 4^th quarter results, with higher net profit of $1.19 billion.

The full year results had been boosted by acquisition of the wealth management and the retail banking business of ANZ in Asia-Pacific region. But unknown to many, the biggest profit contributor from overseas is actually its Hong Kong unit.

Magnificent run

Following the announcement of full year 2017 results, share price of DBS ran riot and stormed to record level. From $26 on 7 Feb, the shares stormed to $28 after the market re-opened following the Chinese New Year break. CEO Piyush Gupta certainly gave shareholders a big red packet by engineering such a fine performance. Many shareholders made much paper gains within one week!

The magnificent run of DBS shares was based on solid business fundamentals. DBS Group’s full-year 2017 net profit rose 4% to a record $4.39 billion.

Lately, I went for wisdom tooth extractions and is in the midst of recovering from the operation. Like many people, I have deep fear of visiting the dentist. So you can imagine how traumatizing the whole experience it was for me. Incidentally, a member of SG Wealth Builder requested me to do a coverage of Q&M Dental Group. Although I do not feel like reliving the horror, I found out this counter could be an interesting stock.

Business profile

More than 20 years ago, founder of Q&M Dental Group, Dr Ng Chin Siau, was rejected a place in National University of Singapore’s Faculty of Medicine. Eventually, he was enrolled into NUS’ Faculty of Dentistry instead. But the rejection turned out to be a blessing in disguise as Dr Ng went on to found one of the largest private dental clinic networks in Singapore.

As a private dental clinic operator that caters to the mass market, Q&M Dental faces stiff competition from big boys like Raffles Medical, polyclinics and various smaller players. In addition, Singapore is a small market that is not big enough for many listed companies to develop any sort of sustainable growth. Under such circumstances, Q&M has no choice but to embark on both organic and inorganic expansions to enhance its investment moat.

As a home-grown water treatment plant developer, Hyflux needs no introduction. The company enjoys strong brand name in Singapore but in recent years, the business fundamentals had declined. To raise capital, Hyflux had jumped onto the bandwagon of issuing perpetual securities.

In 2016, Hyflux’s $300 million perpetual securities were selling like hotcakes as wealth builders rushed to purchase them like holy water. In fact, the perpetual securities were so oversubscribed that Hyflux expanded the offering to $500 million. In this article, I will share my views on Hyflux perpetual securities.

Perpetual Securities

The past 9 years had been a period of low-interest environment, driving investors to hunt for high yields investment instruments. The expansionary monetary policies in many developed countries had depressed bank saving rates and led to huge thirst among wealth builders hunting for yields.

Perpetual security had emerged as a form of attractive investment that yields lucrative returns. For those without active income, the prospect of having a fixed passive income that offers returns that are much higher than bank interest rates is simply a no-brainer, especially for retirees. But you must be fully aware of the risks before investing in such securities.

Typically, perpetual security is a form of hybrid bond that has features of both equity and debt features.

Will Marco Polo Marine sink or swim? The shares of the beleaguered marine logistic group were actively traded recently due to the massive stake disposal (10.29%) by UOB and the emergence of white knight, the Teo family, founders of the Super Group. For the stakeholders, the most pertinent question now is whether this counter has finally seen light at end of the tunnel?

The past two years had been a nightmare for Marco Polo Marine as it also engaged in an epic legal dispute with big boy, Sembcorp Marine over the former’s unilateral termination of a US$214.3 million contract for building a jack-up rig that was under construction at Sembcorp Marine’s PPL Shipyard. It was only in November 2017 that both parties reached an agreement in favour of PPL Shipyard. Marco Polo was also forced to withdraw its claims against PPL.

Crisis company

The significant upheaval in the shareholdings came about after the successful completion of the debt restructuring exercise in which new shares were issued to creditors and new investors. On looking back, the marine logistic company probably would not have gotten itself into this mess had it not ventured into the offshore sector in 2010. But then again, nobody could have foreseen the slump in oil price leading to the protracted ailing oil and gas sector.

On 5 February 2018, US Dow Jones plunged nearly 1,200 points, the biggest single-day decline on record. The sell-off in the US market came after a smaller decline of 666 points on the previous Friday. As expected, Asia stock markets suffered similar carnage. Straits Times Index was down 121 points on mid-day 6 February 2018.

Is this the start of a bear cycle or just a healthy correction? Many analysts had been forecasting the trend of the stock market for the longest time. A number of them predicted that a stock market crash is imminent. But the matter of fact is that nobody can predict the future. If someone tell you that he believes that the stock market will rise or fall, don’t believe him.

What is your strategy?

Whether it is a healthy pull-back or a devastating stock market crash, it is important to have an investing strategy. Far too many people lose their wealth to Mr Market not because of the failing of the stock market, but because of their flawed investment strategies, or the lack of it. If you followed my blog closely, you would have realized my strategy is to buy assets at discounted value or during distress times.

Civil war broke out at Genting Group as members of the founding family engage in explosive lawsuits which threaten to undermine the control of Executive Chairman, Lim Kok Thay. The legal battle involves the will left behind by the late founder, Lim Goh Tong. Apart from this, Kok Thay is also engaged in a separate lawsuit with one of his sisters over beneficial interest in a block of Genting shares.

Many people fear that the family feuds would lead to devastating turmoil for the revered casino operator. But as far as I am concerned, I am convinced that the Lim family would ride out the storm and move on from this dark chapter. After all, this is Genting Group, one of the most successful Malaysian business empire for the last 30 years. To claim that these legal battles would bring down Genting Group is ludicrous.

The success story of Genting Highlands gaming resort is indeed intriguing. In fact, it was so successful that Singapore changed the law to legalize casinos in 2006 (Casino Control Act), paving the way for Genting Group to build a gaming resort in Sentosa. Since then, Singapore has become the second largest gambling market in Asia, behind only Macau.

Once upon a time in Singapore, taxi drivers held commuters to ransom with their ridiculous surcharges, bad practices of taking longer routes to earn higher fares and going ‘MIA’ during peak hours. Suffice to say, in every industry, there will always be black sheep. But the emergence of Grab and Uber have changed the game and levelled the playing field. Among the biggest casualty from this fall-out had to be ComfortDelgro, the largest taxi operator in Singapore.

The irony about ComfortDelgro is that as a taxi operator, it derives the bulk of its revenue from bus and MRT businesses, instead of its taxi business. With the disruption in the taxi landscape, perhaps in no time, ComfortDelgro may consider switching its taxi drivers to bus or train drivers. This scenario may become a reality due to a frightening competitive advantage of Uber and Grab – they are both relatively asset-lite companies. Read on to find out why this spell big trouble for this Singapore blue chip.

Horror ride for Comfort

The evolving on-demand transport landscape is indeed sweet revenge for commuters as taxi operators had monopolised the market for the longest time due to lack of credible taxi alternatives. A lot of credit must be given to the Minister for Transport, Khaw Boon Wan for democratizing the private-hiring industry.  

Sometimes, life is stranger than fiction. In my years of investing in SGX stocks, I have come across many investors who persisted in buying more shares of companies whose business fundamentals turned sour. Perhaps they did not have the time to read the financial reports or maybe they just lack the competence to do a proper due diligence. So in M1 case, is it a case of catching a falling knife?

When investing in stock, never just study the trend of the share price. This is especially so if you consider yourself to be a long-term investor.

Recently, several financial bloggers purchased M1 shares on the basis that the shares had reached a “break-through” level. Whether they had made the correct decision is subjected to debate. After all, there is no right or wrong in the stock market. The only thing that matters is whether you have made money from the stock investments.

In my point of view, I would avoid investing in M1 shares at all cost. And the latest financial results vindicated that business fundamentals of M1 continued to slide.

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Being Singapore’s aerospace and defence group, one wonders whether ST Engineering has lost its investment fortress. Revenue has stagnated since FY2012 and net profit plunged from $576.2 million in FY2012 to $484.5 million in FY2016. Due to the declining financial performance, the stock price had also dropped from a high of $4.45 in FY2013 to the current $3.36 level.

Is ST Engineering a value trap or bargain buy now? This article will examine the merits and risks of investing in this government-linked company.

Land Systems

Firstly, as a defence group, ST Engineering enjoys a defensive fortress in Singapore as its Land Systems sector supports the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) to modernize our fighting forces through major projects like the next-generation Armoured Fighting Vehicle. It also provides engineering solutions for various weapons and ammunition systems. For 3Q2017, commercial sales and defence sales constituted 63% or $1.0b, and 37% or $0.6b respectively of Group revenue.

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Keppel Corp’s massive fine of USD 422 million over corruption charges had cast a spotlight on rival Sembcorp Marine. The record fine had raised questions on whether Sembcorp Marine would be implicated and created much uncertainties for the company. This is because it is not known if Sembcorp is currently being investigated by the authorities over corruption charges. Nevertheless, it is timely to review whether it is opportune to invest in the parent company, Sembcorp Industries Ltd.

Being rated as the world no.2 oil rig builder, Sembcorp Marine had endured a challenging FY2017 like Keppel Corp. Revenue decreased for rig building and offshore platform projects as well as contracts termination and inventories written down arising from the contract signed in October 2017 to sell nine jack-up oil drilling rigs. Revenue for nine months shrank to $1.7 billion, a decrease of 36% year-on-year. But net profit remained stable, at $28 million, an increase of 3% year-on-year.

Notwithstanding the above, it should be noted that Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI) is more than just Sembcorp Marine, which is listed separately on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange. SCI has three main businesses namely, Utilities, Marine and Urban Development.

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2017 had seen local banks like OCBC and DBS making strategic acquisitions to grow their wealth management portfolios. Yet UOB is surprisingly quiet on the merger and acquisition front. What is the venerable bank up to? Is merger king, Wee Cho Yaw, plotting something special in 2018?

Once upon a time in Singapore’s banking fraternity, there were four local “Heavenly Kings” – Development Bank of Singapore (DBS), United Overseas Bank (UOB), Overseas Union Bank (OUB) and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation. They are all household names and I believe most Singaporeans have experiences with their bank products or services.

On looking back, the devastating effect of the Asian Financial Crisis in the nineties and the industry liberalization brought forth by the new Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) regulations changed the banking landscape forever. Through the years, UOB has staved off these challenges and emerged as one of the most powerful forces among its peers.

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The recent upturn in Singapore economy led to a surge in local banks’ share price. Generally seen as the bellwether of the economy, bank stocks are extremely sensitive to economy conditions. South-East Asia largest bank, DBS, is no exception. The share price stormed to record high of $26.60, an impressive level not seen even during the boom years preceding the Great Financial Crisis.

The power surge of the share price had created much wealth for many wealth builders, including DBS CEO who bought 200,000 shares for $2.8 million in February 2016. For the man in the street, $2.8 million is lot of money. But for Piyush Gupta, his annual pay package in FY2016 was already $8.4 million. His purchase of DBS shares back then was driven by his conviction that the shares were grossly undervalued.

Indeed, his move was vindicated as the bank’s share price climbed by almost 100% within two years. If Gupta had held the shares from February 2016 till now, he would have made a profit of almost $2.8 million.

With the bullish form of the share price, it is indeed tempting to purchase DBS shares. However, it is important to review the financial performance and assess whether the price is worth the value.

The story of Perennial Real Estate Holdings is certainly intriguing. Having made its way into SGX stock market in 2014 after staging a massive $1.56 billion reverse takeover of St James Holdings (the famous nightclub operator), Perennial counts Wilmar International and Osim founder, Ron Sim as major shareholders (combined 35%). Recently, it announced a US$1.2 billion Joint Venture Vehicle with First Close of US$500 million to Invest in HSR Healthcare Integrated Mixed-use Developments in China.

The entry of Perennial Real Estate Holdings into China’s healthcare put it on a collision path against Raffles Medical, which announced that it is building two hospitals in China. Although the two healthcare players are from Singapore, their business models and backgrounds are fundamentally different. In this context, I will share my insights in this article.

Background of Perennial Real Estate

Although Perennial claims to be an integrated real estate and healthcare company, the business focus is predominantly in property development and management of mixed-use projects. In Singapore, Perennial has invested in and manages prime iconic properties located in the Civic District, Central Business District and Orchard Road precinct, such as CHIJMES, Capitol Singapore, AXA Tower, TripleOne Somerset, House of Tan Yeok Nee and Chinatown Point.

The recent corruption fine on Keppel Corporation amounting to $566.91 million by US, Brazil and Singapore authorities certainly rocked the market. The record fine came at a time when the oil market is perceived to be recovering from a devastating three-year slump. But more importantly, as a government-linked company, the episode left a taint on the reputation of Singapore, widely known to be one of the most corruption free cities in the world.

But beyond the corruption scandal, a far more sinister probably awaits Keppel Corp. In my opinion, it could be the dominance of US shale oil production that may change the game for the Singapore blue chip. Whilst the corruption fine may be staggering, Keppel Corp’s balance sheet is strong enough to withstand the impact without incurring significant damages to its growth prospects.

Diversified businesses

As an industrial conglomerate, Keppel Corporation has four major business divisions – Offshore and Marine, Property, Infrastructure and Investments. Keppel O&M (KOM) specializes in offshore rig design, construction and repair, ship repair and conversion, and specialised shipbuilding. It integrates and harnesses the experience and expertise of 20 yards and offices worldwide to be near customers and markets.

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From pork seller to CEO. Nope, this is not the plot of the latest Mediacorp drama nor the story of SG Wealth Builder. Instead, it is the real success story of Mr Lim Hock Chee, CEO of Sheng Siong. From a humble outlet at Ang Mo Kio, Mr Lim grew Sheng Siong to the third largest supermarket operator in Singapore and eventually got it listed in 2011.

Since its debut at IPO price of $0.33, the share price had been surging in recent years and even crossed the $1.00 in 2016. Given the bullish form, should investors enter this counter now or is it a value trap?

2017 proved to be another great year for Sheng Siong as the home-grown supermarket operator achieved revenue of $629 million and net profit of $52.8 million for nine months, an increase of 5% and 11.8% respectively year-on-year. The results were certainly impressive given the current weak retail sentiments. But as shared in my previous articles, I would not invest in this counter due to the following factors highlighted in this article.

Before reading this review, please check out the articles I have written on Sheng Siong. They would contain my research and insights on this counter.

Due to a request from reader, I am consolidating a series of analysis for Noble Group in 2017. The links to the articles are below and they are unprotected for a limited time. Thereafter, they will be locked up and you need to register as member of SG Wealth Builder to access the premium content.

Do take note that this counter is very risky and novice investors should not attempt to trade it if there is a lack of understanding on the business model. This article is also only for information and not meant to induce or serve as a form of financial advice.

For Noble Group, 2017 will go down in its history as the most dramatic year as the commodity trader engaged in an epic swim-or sink-battle. From management upheaval, to lawsuits involving ex-CEOs, to plunging share price, vicious short-selling attacks, accusations of accounting malpractices, credit ratings downgrades, record earning losses and reported loss of bank support (DBS), Noble Group certainly looked on course to an explosive self-destruction path.

Despite the relentless troubles, Noble Group continued to attract institutional investors’ support. In June, Abu Dhabi’s Goldilocks emerged as surprise major shareholder while China sovereign wealth fund, CIC, remained one of its largest shareholders, with stake of 9.5%.

With Dow Jones on course to hitting 25,000 points, the US stock market is certainly on a bull run. Over in Singapore, the Strait Times Index is not doing too badly either, adding 1.8% for the month of November and bringing its year-to-date dividend inclusive return to 23%, compared to an SGD denominated average returns of 18% for the benchmarks of Australia, Hong Kong and Japan. In this article, I will share my views on the 5 SGX stocks to invest in 2018.

For the past 7 years, I had been sharing my insights and strategies on a number of SGX stocks in this blog. However, two years ago, I have divested all my stock holding to fund the purchase of my new home. In spite of this, I have been analysing selected SGX stocks which I would invest in 2018 once my war chest is built up. On this note, it must be emphasized that I do not have a vested interest in the following SGX stocks. Readers and members must do their own diligence before investing in these counters.

OCBC

I am still beating myself for missing the boat on this one. Since 2016, I have been tracking OCBC when the shares were trading at about $8.00 level.

Have you bought Raffles Medical shares recently? Since my last coverage on this counter on 24 August 2017, the share price of the private healthcare service provider had a 10% correction. What is happening? Should shareholders run for their lives?

To add value to readers, I will share my stock analysis of Raffles Medical Group. Through this, I hope readers will learn how to perform a basic evaluation on stocks and sign up as members of SG Wealth Builder.

Circle of Competence

When it comes to stock investing, the best approach is to invest within your “circle of competence”. This means that you don’t have to be an expert in every company in order to succeed. Instead, invest in an area in which you have a significant knowledge than the rest of investors. For example, if you are a healthcare worker, you are likely to know the trend of the healthcare industry, the market leaders, the demand and supply, and the key developments in the medical field. Thus, it is likely that you would be familiar with Raffles Medical Group and how it has fared in recent years.

But what if you don’t have the circle of competence? Then the risk should be mitigated by the understanding of business model.