SG Wealth Builder

Crisis? What crisis? UOB share price tore apart the form book by going on an explosive run following the release of an excellent set of first half results. Many investors and analysts were also stunned by the news that 70% of new launch condominium, The Tre Ver, was sold during Phase 1.

The Tre Ver was developed by UOL, an affiliated company of UOB. Previously, many investors feared the worst for UOB share price following the introduction of new property cooling measures by Singapore government.

The buoyant first half results certainly set UOB share price on fire, making it the most expensive bank stock in Singapore. Within the span of a week, UOB share price surged from $27 to $28 level. On the basis of the current bull form of UOB share price, shareholders should have that feel good feeling.

However, I do think that investors are throwing caution to the wind as the surge in UOB share price may not be justified. To put things into perspective, UOB is still struggling with toxic loans as a result of the exposure to the ailing oil and gas industry. As of June 2018, non-performing loans stood at $4.2 billion (1.7%), a significant increase from last year’s $3.5 billion (1.5%).

Since early May, CapitaLand share price experienced some form of bearish correction. But the stunning announcement of the retirement of CEO Lim Ming Yan on 1 June 2018 really knocked the wind out of CapitaLand share price, which collapsed from a high of almost $3.80 to $2.99 at one point. CapitaLand share price has since recovered to $3.15 level but remained under pressure.

With Price/Book Value of just 0.692 and P/E ratio of merely 9.7, CapitaLand share price is currently considered very undervalued among the blue chips. In fact, most investors perennially misunderstood this stock and thought that the property cooling measures would wallop CapitaLand share price upside down. But they don’t realize that the battle to be fought for CapitaLand is not in Singapore.

Since the Great Financial Crisis, CapitaLand share price had been languishing between $2.00 to $3.00 bandwidth in recent years, a shadow of its former self when it was trading at $8.00 in the heydays of 2007. The recent carnage in CapitaLand share price even triggered a massive shares buyback by management, which bought back $209 million worth of CapitaLand shares. The intervention managed to prevent a massive decline in CapitaLand share price and provided a critical support for CapitaLand share price.

It is that “uh-oh” feeling for DBS share price all over again as the counter got bombed-out after the release of 2^nd quarter earnings report. There were claims that DBS share price came under heavy shelling because the Singaporean bank missed analysts’ forecast. Should shareholders be punching the wall?

From my perspective, the notion that DBS share price fell because of missed estimates by market analysts is complete nonsense because I never believe in what the analysts said. And for sure, market analysts never have any swaying power over share prices.

So what could be the root cause for the correction in DBS share price? After all, net profit in second quarter earnings actually surged 20% to $1.37 billion, as compared to $1.14 billion last year. Under the current challenging operating environment, to be able to deliver such a mighty result is indeed impressive. So there is no basis to claim that DBS share price tanked over poor financial performance.

In my point of view, dark forces could be behind the slump in DBS share price as 2.56 million DBS shares worth $67.5 million were shorted on 2 August 2018. In terms of short sale value, this is the highest among all the SGX counter for that day.

Is it sunshine after the rain for Starhub share price or is it yet another false dawn in the making? From a high of $4.20 in 2015, Starhub share price went on a devastating run to languish at current $1.70 level. Only the recent appointment of new CEO, Peter Kaliaropoulos halted the stunning decline of Starhub share price.

The collapse of StarHub share price certainly caused massive wealth destruction for many shareholders. Whether this counter can stage a magical recovery is a big question mark as StarHub share price reflected not just the broad sell-down in the current Singapore stock market (StarHub is an STI component), but also mirrored its declining business fundamentals.

The carnage of StarHub share price is attributed to the triple whammies of StarHub losing popular channel for its Pay TV, fierce competition from NetFlix and entry of new MVNO players. And to top it off, the fourth telco player, TPG Telecom, has not even started business yet. No wonder investors are spooked by the prospect of Starhub.

Given the current StarHub share price, the dividend yield is at an alluring 9.36%. In view of this, is StarHub shares a value trap or dividend gem? Are there any dark forces behind the meltdown of StarHub share price?

Singapore Airlines’ CEO Goh Choon Phong should be at a loss for words. Days after collecting the prestigious Skytrax’s World Best Airline Award for the fourth time, the CEO must be watching in horror as SIA share price plunged by as much as 5.5% on 27 July 2018, presumably due to the poor Q1FY18/19 financial results.

The poor financial results came on the back of announcements of integration of SIA Cargo and SilkAir into parent airline and merger of Tiger Airways and Scoot. Despite the extensive restructuring exercise among its subsidiaries, it certainly seems that there was not much improvement in resource synergies, revenue growth or even cost reduction. What a wasted effort indeed!

Wretched performance

As the saying goes, one man’s poison is another’s meat. While oil and gas companies like Keppel and Sembcorp had been struggling in the aftermath of the oil price’s collapse, SIA share price had been flying high, surging from $9.80 in early 2017 to as high as $11.56 in May this year. But the magical form of SIA share price is as good as it gets as recent uptick in crude oil prices returned to haunt the premium airline.

The reason for the gravity defying performance of SIA share price was because of low fuel cost in 2017.

From almost $14 in early May, OCBC share price rolled off the cliff to languish at $11.30 in July. The steep decline came on the back of an extraordinary bull run that saw OCBC share price surging from $7.90 in February 2016 to reach the giddy high of $14 this year. When a stock has this sort of ridiculous form, it is only fair to expect a healthy correction. After all, what goes up must surely come down.

But at the back of many investors’ mind must be who are the dark forces responsible for the recent meltdown of OCBC share price. As a retail investor, you must figure this out because you don’t want to be caught with your pants down when the big boys strike.

Based on the data collected, there were two groups of big boys influencing OCBC share price in the months of May, June and July 2018 – the short-sellers and institutional funds. Both groups combined to knock the wind out of OCBC share price.

Of course, OCBC shares wasn’t the only stock suffering from meltdown in recent months. DBS, UOB and SingTel shares also went through poor form lately. But against the backdrop of the big boys’ movements, what are the chances of OCBC share price regaining its mojo?

26 July 2018 would be destiny day for SingTel share price as it will be ex-dividend day for shareholders to be entitled to the final dividend of $0.107. All eyes are on that day as shareholders brace themselves for a frightening roller-coaster ride of SingTel share price.

There had been much talks on the impending entry of the fourth telco, TPG Telecom and the emerging threats of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO). People are concerned that these threats would demolish SingTel share price and knock it off the cliff. But to be frank, the current bearish sentiments of SingTel share price should be due to the heightened competition in overseas markets, and not Singapore market. So investors should not make a mountain out of a mole.

Nonetheless, it is not going to be smooth sailing for SingTel and I anticipate a rough ride for this Singapore blue chip. In light of recent developments, this article will share the reasons for the decline of SingTel share price and why this counter could possibly correct to $2.60 by year end. In this article, I am also going to reveal how the big boys combined to wipe off billions from SingTel share price.

DBS share price to storm back in style or is it the start of a protracted nightmare? Under the frenzy attacks by short-sellers, DBS share price went into a tailspin, falling from a high of $30 in April to a low of $25.50 in July. The devastating decline prompted DBS to launch a rare shares buyback on 6 July 2018. For the record, the last shares buybacks by DBS was almost two years ago, in September 2016.

6 July 2018 would be remembered as Black Friday for local bank and property stocks as Singapore government sent the market into chaos with the announcement of additional property cooling measures. DBS stock retreated by 2.6% on that fateful day.

DBS share price is closely watched by many investors in Singapore because it is the biggest cap and is also the crown jewel of Temasek Holdings. Being the bellwether of the economy, bank stocks are typically sensitive to the economy and DBS share price would largely reflect market confidence of the state of Singapore’s economy.

After an incredible bull run that saw DBS share price smashing past the $30 mark, this counter is at a cross road with the recent onslaught of short-selling attacks and the stunning property cooling measures.

It was supposed to be an opportunity for NetLink NBN Trust to make a statement about its investment merits to Singapore investors. But unfortunately, NetLink NBN Trust messed it up by delivering a subpar revenue performance for FP2018 that was much lower than original forecast.

And investors did not take the above too kindly. Upon the release of the financial results, unit price of NetLink NBN Trust tumbled from $0.81 in May to $0.74 in July. The price correction led to dividend yield at an attractive level of 5.65%.

Against the current backdrop, is NetLink NBN Trust a value trap or dividend yield play? In this article, I will examine the competitive advantages and handicaps of NetLink NBN Trust.

Missed opportunity

Time really flies. It had been one year when NetLink NBN Trust debut in Singapore Exchange and I do think that it is timely for an update on this business trust. Dubbed as the biggest IPO since 2011, many investors have great expectation of NetLink NBN Trust. And rightly so. After all, it is the sole provider of residential fibre network in Singapore. Given such status, it is rightful to assume that NetLink NBN Trust enjoys an unassailable monopoly in the fibre network sector locally.

Since my last coverage on Noble Group in December 2017, things have taken a turn for the worse. In fact, the on-going drama is so bad that its good. Why is there any good out of this corporate tragedy if you may ask? In my opinion, there are plenty of hard lessons that investors can gain from the downfall of Noble Group.

From a former multi-billion blue chip darling as recent as 2015, Noble Group has shrunk to a mere $188 million listed company. Novice investors who are new to the game should avoid this counter if they are not unaware of the series of events that had unfolded on this counter. Indeed, there had been so many twists and turns to the Noble Group drama that one wonders if the latest alliance between Goldilocks and Noble Group is just another false dawn in the making.

Due to the volatility of Noble Group share price, existing shareholders should exercise caution on whether to dollar average their holdings or cut losses.  This article is only for information and not meant to induce or serve as a form of financial advice.

Holding shareholders to ransom?

In my last coverage, I highlighted the credit crunch that Noble Group was facing.

Amid the sea of red in the Singapore stock market, Mapletree Logistics Trust shares bucked the trend and stood out like a shining beacon. The bullish form of Mapletree Logistics Trust shares could be attributed to its recent $778 million acquisitions of five ramp-up logistics warehouses from CWT Pte Ltd.

The move by Mapletree Logistics Trust raised a lot of eyebrows because it was made against the backdrop of warehouses supply glut and falling rental prices in Singapore. According to 4Q2017 data released by JTC, the number of available warehouses increased quarterly by 2% to 10.4 million sqm while vacancy rate decreased slightly by 1.6%. Correspondingly, rental prices remained weak in 4Q2017, decreasing by 1.0%.

On the other hand, the mega deal also saw Mapletree Logistics Trust one-upped on local rival Cache Logistics Trust, a ramp-up logistics warehouse specialist. The latter’s competitive strength lies in ramp-up warehouses, which are limited in supply in Singapore because specialised planning and design specifications are required for such properties. The entry of Mapletree in this niche is an unwanted competition for Cache.

Opportunistic acquisitions by Mapletree Logistics?

Investors of Cache Logistics Trust must have seen red with the acquisition. This is because all the five warehouses were previously under Cache’s Right of First Refusal granted by CWT.

After suffering from heavy shelling for the past few weeks, SingTel stock recovered from multi-year low of $3.02 to climb to $3.24 on 10 July 2018. The latest technical rebound of SingTel stock must have left investors wondering if this blue chip has indeed bottomed out. Before rejoicing, it is important to note that the big boys, namely the institutional funds had been targeting SingTel stock for the past two months.

According to Singapore Exchange (SGX) Institutional Fund Flow Monthly report, the month of May saw institutional investors net sold an epic $1.10 billion worth of Singapore stocks.

I could be wrong but I do not recall the outflow of such magnitude from Singapore stock market in recent years, apart from the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. The net selling by institutional players continued through June, with institutional net selling $257 million worth of Singapore stocks.

A more chilling revelation in the reports is that SingTel had been targeted by the big boys as SingTel stock had consistently topped the net seller lists since December 2017. In this article, I am going to show you how the big boys play the game and why you must avoid collision path with the big boys because there can only be one outcome.

Could it be the straw that broke the camel’s back? Despite the challenging operating conditions and the toxic loans from the ailing oil and gas industry, UOB stock had an enthralling fairy-tale run, surging from $17.20 in 2016 to $30 in 2018. It certainly seemed that nothing can stop the explosive form of UOB stock price, until the recent short-selling activities and property measures halted the majestic run.

Meltdown of UOB stock

6 July 2018 would be remembered as Black Friday for local bank and property stocks as Singapore government sent the market into a devastating tailspin with the announcement of additional property cooling measures. There was chaos in the stock market as bank and property stocks suffered from carnage. Among the three bank stocks, UOB stock fared the worst, plunging by as much as 3%. DBS stock retreated by 2.6% while OCBC shares fell by 2.2%.

On the basis of the underlying business structure, UOB stock looks set for a terrifying ride with the property cooling measures. Unlike DBS and OCBC, UOB stock is considered a major proxy for property play.

This is because in his heydays, UOB Chairman Emeritus Wee Cho Yaw had meticulously built a massive billion dollars property-cum-banking empire, through UOB, UOL, UIC and Haw Par Corporation.

After leading DBS to achieve a record net profit of $1.52 billion for first-quarter 2018, CEO Piyush Gupta must be at a loss for words on the recent meltdown of DBS share price. From 30 April to 4 July, DBS share price plummeted from a record $31 to $26.38, a massive decline of 14.4%.

The sudden loss of form for DBS share price must have scared the living daylights out of shareholders. After all, DBS share price had been cruising along fine with its robust set of financial results. Nonetheless, the current performance of DBS share price is not reflective of underlying business fundamentals because as far as I understand, there are no business concerns for DBS at all. The culprit for the fall of DBS share price should be the work of the short-sellers.

Should shareholders run for their lives or keep faith with CEO Piyush Gupta?

Dance with the wolves

The current meltdown is one of the biggest declines in my recent memory of DBS share price. The last time that a correction of such magnitude was back in 2009, the dark days of the Great Financial Crisis and 2016, the peak of the oil slump affecting the banks.

Within two months, OCBC share price fell off the cliff, dropping from almost $14 to $11.50. Such correction is healthy as OCBC share price had been on a spellbinding berserk run since 2017. Thus, investors should not be alarmed by the recent decline in OCBC share price. But at the back of investors’ mind must be whether OCBC share price will return to form with the impending Great Eastern Malaysia divestment. Does the current OCBC share price represent value for money or is it another value trap?

In relation to a query from a reader, many investors may be interested to know the fair value of OCBC share price. To be honest, answering this question is never easy for OCBC shares because the bank holds numerous non-core bank assets that are yet to be, or may even not be, divested in the near future.

Furthermore, even if a counter is trading at its fair value, it may not represent a golden opportunity for investors to buy on the dip. For retail investors, they must be wary of the movement of the short-sellers. You certainly don’t want to be caught off-guarded by the flipping of the whales. In recent months, OCBC share price had been hurt by short-selling activities.

Class is permanent, form is temporary. On 28 June 2018, SingTel stock price collapsed to 9-year low, falling to as low as $3.08. Amid attacks by short-sellers, SingTel stock price retreated to below the psychological level of $3.10. At the rate of decline, SingTel stock price seems destined to free fall to below the $3 mark.

The devastating decline in SingTel stock price would have caused massive paper losses for many wealth builders. Investors would know the theory of “be fearful when the market is full of greed and be greedy when the market is full of fear”. Now that the opportunity arises to invest in a blue chip, would you go for it?

The long-term fundamentals of this evergreen blue chip remain intact. Henceforth, the current bearish trend may provide a good opportunity for investors to accumulate at attractive price. But having said that, it is important to be wary of the movement of the big boys because you don’t want to incur losses when these whales flipped.

Perfect storm

It certainly seems that the bears are out in full force and hell-bent on sending SingTel stock price to the bottom, wiping off $8 billion worth of market capitalization from SingTel stock price.

21 June 2018 would be remembered as a day of reckoning for local telco players as MyRepublic set the mobile market on fire by offering one of the most innovative and competitive data plans in recent years – Smart 35. On the day of the launch, SingTel and StarHub stock prices got bombed-out. Whether the corrections are knee-jerk reactions remain to be seen but MyRepublic certainly debuted in style.

It would be sweet revenge for MyRepublic which had lost out to TPG Telecom in the bidding for the fourth telco license back in 2016. Despite losing the spectrum bid war, MyRepublic vowed to make a comeback back then. And it certainly did. With a bang.

Without having to make heavy investments on the network infrastructure, Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) like MyRepublic is seriously giving incumbent telco players a new dimension of challenge. The biggest winner out of this telco war is of course the consumers. But should investors be punching the wall as SingTel and StarHub stock prices suffered melt-down?

MyRepublic turn on the style

Smart 35 comes with 7GB data, 1000 minutes free talktime and 1000 SMS. There is no contract needed and customers may change plan later at no extra cost.

On 21 June 2018, StarHub share price plunged to a 13 year low. Trading at $1.64, this popular stock is a shadow of its former self. Even during the dark days of the Great Financial Crisis in 2009, StarHub share price had never dipped to such abysmal level.

Certainly, nobody could have predicted Starhub share price would suffer from such a devastating run. When it comes to technology disruptions, it is always a wild card. In the good old days, StarHub can bank on SMS, IDD and Pay TV for growth. But the advent of technology has significantly eroded margins from these former cash cows for telco players.

StarHub’s recent payment row with American entertainment giant, Discovery Channel, also casts a dark shadow over Pay TV business outlook amid stiff competition from video streaming players like NetFlix.

For those who bought StarHub shares at $4.20 in 2015, they would be staring at massive paper losses, even if you factored in the dividends issued during that period. Incoming new CEO, Peter Kaliaropoulos certainly have his work cut out for him when he takes over in July 2018.

But before writing this stock off, it should be highlighted that the current StarHub share price has caused the dividend yield to be at an attractive 9.47%.

Can Hyflux stage an incredible comeback like OSIM? Or rather, does Hyflux even deserve to be rescued? The embattled water treatment specialist has obtained a court protection to restructure its outstanding debts. It has also stopped payment of distribution on its $500 million 6.00% Perpetual Capital Securities which was due on 28 May 2018. The swift turn of events caught shareholders by surprise and marked a treacherous chapter for Hyflux.

Under current circumstances, investors who pumped in their hard-earned monies on the shares and perpetual bonds have every right to be angry with the management of Hyflux. How on earth did the former A-list company end up in such a sorry state is beyond me.

Whether Hyflux can emerge stronger and leaner from this embarrassing fiasco remains to be seen but the corporate drama is so bad that its good, at least from my perspective. When this counter reopens in six month time, investors should ask themselves whether they should run for their lives or risk throwing good money after bad.

I wish I did not have to write this but those who are vested in Hyflux shares or bonds should hope for the best but expect the worst. Check out the other articles written on the Hyflux saga:

Sembcorp Industries should invest in Hyflux Ltd

The holy water of Hyflux Perpetual Securities

Lack of focus

For a start, it certainly seems like Hyflux CEO bites off more than she could chew when she takes on so many board memberships through the years.

After leading SingTel to achieve an impressive record net profit of $5.45 billion for FY2018, CEO Chua Sock Koong must be stumped for words when SingTel share price plunged to a six year low on 18 June 2018. At $3.17 a piece, SingTel share price is technically entering into a bear mode territory. In the context of the current SingTel share price, is this counter a value buy or could it be a falling knife?

Many investors had pointed that the entry of fourth telco player could have played a part in the sharp decline of SingTel share price in recent months. But then again, the earnings from Singapore mobile market is significantly much lesser than that from its Australia Optus and Indonesia Telkomsel. In this regard, the current headwind should be due to its poor performance from its regional associates rather than the heightened competition in Singapore market.

Falling SingTel share price

At current dividend yield of 5.5%, SingTel share price is indeed alluring if you compared it to the coupon rates of the recent Astrea IV bonds and Singapore Savings Bonds. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects to maintain its ordinary dividends of 17.5 cents per share for the next two financial years.

With a market capitalization of $4.53 billion, Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) is the largest REIT sponsored by Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd. Temasek Holdings has a majority stake of 34.71% in this REIT while other big boys like AIA Group and NTUC Enterprise own stakes amounting to 4.92% and 2.42% respectively.

With such stellar group of major shareholders, Mapletree Commercial Trust is certainly an attractive real estate investment trust. But could it be an investment trap or potential multi-bagger?

Since this REIT debut in SGX Mainboard in 2011, it has consistently outperformed STI. The total returns (including capital appreciation and distributions paid out) is 138.5%. For the longest time, I am torn between investing in Mapletree Logistics Trust or Mapletree Commercial Trust. In this article, I will attempt to make an investment analysis of Mapletree Commercial Trust.

Business Profile

Looking at the portfolio, it is not difficult to understand why this REIT is so popular among Singaporeans. MCT has five properties in Singapore namely, Vivocity, PSA Building, Mapletree Anson, Bank of America Merrill Lynch HarbourFront and Mapletree Business City I. All these assets are either premium office or properties that are strategically located in the CBD area. VivoCity is also Singapore’s largest mall located in the HarbourFront Precinct.

It seems like yesterday when more than 10,000 retail investors in Singapore lost more than $500 million during the Lehman Brothers Minibond saga. That was in 2008. Fast forward to 2016, many accredited investors lost at least $250,000 after investing in Swiber junk bonds. And then in May 2018, Hyflux stunned the market by halting the trading of its $500 million perpetual bonds and the payment for the coupon payments. Given the spate of bond tragedies suffered by investors in recent years, one must be wondering if “this time it is different” for Astrea IV bonds.

For sure, it would not be fair to compare Astrea IV bonds to Minibonds, Swiber Bonds and Hyflux perpetual bonds. Even though they are all basically debt instruments issued by companies to raise capital, Astrea IV bonds are indirectly issued by Temasek Holdings (the Sponsor, Astrea Pte Ltd, is wholly-owned by Temasek Holdings). With such a strong issuer, the possibility of default is extremely improbable, to be frank.

Furthermore, the CEO of Temasek Holdings is Madam Ho Ching, the wife of Singapore Prime Minister. For Temasek Holdings to offer such unprecedented innovative product to retail investors, there are surely safeguards designed to ensure that it will not fail.

It had been a harrowing ride for SembCorp Marine as the world number 2 oil rig builder faces crisis after crisis in the aftermath of the global oil slump. The past few years had seen Sembcorp making an explosive impairment amounting to $609 million in FY2015, engaged in a bitter legal battle against Marco Polo Marine and embroiled in the intriguing possible link to Sete Brasil corruption scandal.

However, in early 2018, United States President Donald Trump had proposed an aggressive plan to transform the country into a superpower energy nation. Against the backdrop of improving oil price, can SembCorp Marine ride out this vicious storm?

The four key capabilities of SembCorp Marine are Rigs & Floaters, Repairs & Upgrades, Offshore Platforms and Specialized Shipbuilding. The businesses of SembCorp Marine are all in direct competition against fellow peer, Keppel Corporation.

But unlike Keppel, SembCorp Marine is a pure offshore and marine company and therefore don’t have the buffer from other business segments to withstand the impact from the downturn in the oil and gas sector. In this regard, the financial destiny of SembCorp Marine is perceived to be more impacted by the oil slump than Keppel Corp. To find out more about my analysis of the parent company, SembCorp Industries, do sign up as member to access the protected article.

For most retail investors, real estate investment trusts (REITs) offers the best alternative to owning a real estate without the need of forking obscene amount of cash or the hassle of dealing with difficult tenants. But of course, like all investments, there are always pitfalls to watch out for when investing in REITs. In this article, I will share my insights on investing in REITs.

Over the years, the landscape for REITs had evolved significantly, with the change in the regulatory gearing limit, asset enhancement initiatives by the bigger REITs and the emergence of perpetual bonds (Mapletree Logistics Trust was the first REIT to use perpetual bonds in 2012). Against this backdrop, for sure there are REITs that outperformed the rest while there are those which may not worth your time and money.

Over in Sabana REIT, a group of irate investors called for the manager to be removed in 2017 over its poor performance and falling unit price. Although the revolt was unsuccessful, it has resulted in the change of the leadership. What are rules governing the removal of REITs manager and what are the rights that REIT investors can leverage to protect their investments?

Industry trends

Under Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), REITs are collective investment schemes that invest primarily in real estates and real-estate related assets.