Stocks

Many Singapore investors would be happy to see the back of July as it capped an awful month for the stock market. A total of $37.4 billion was wiped out and the combined value declined sharply by 3.9 per cent. I also saw an article in a local finance blog where one reader wrote how depressed he was to see his hard earned money evaporated away because of the market correction.

To put things into perspective, I have always advocated readers to only invest in monies that you can really afford to lose. If you have only $30,000 hard cash, you don’t invest all of it in shares. That’s pretty stupid and risky. The worse case is concentrating all your investments on a couple of shares when you are just learning how to invest. Obviously, such an approach is akin to asking for trouble. A market rout would have wiped out all your monies.

The mayhem in the China stock market is not surprising, given that it had surged to record highs for so many years. A correction is inevitable and would of course inflict mighty pains on many investors. Such is the growing pains of an emerging market. On this note, investors worldwide should be cautious of this development because the fallout from the China market, coupled with the Greece debt crisis and the potential adjustment in interest rates, can affect investors’ confidence drastically and induce unstoppable financial crisis.

It had been a year since I wrote an article on the performance of OSIM, Singapore leading massage chair maker cum lifestyle company. Last weekend, as part of my stock review, I was shocked to find that there was a massive meltdown in OSIM’s share price. Granted that I have not been monitoring the local stock market trend for quite some time, OSIM’s free fall merits some attention.

Firstly, in my previous post, I predicted that OSIM’s share prices would reach $3.30 in end December 2014 based on the historical EPS and PE ratios. Instead, the company missed market expectations and profits fell more than 50% to $14 million in the first quarter ended March 31. The market took the cue and reacted immediately. The share price subsequently dropped to $1.61 as of 3rd July 2015, way off the $3.30 target price I had predicted.

The disappointing 1st Quarter performance could be attributed to the lack of new OSIM product launches. OSIM’s new massage chair, uMagic, was launched in April, so the 2nd Quarter would probably see an improvement in sales. The company also reiterated its strategy to pursue growth through new product developments, such as uInfinity Luxe, uDiva, uHip, uSqueez Air, uTrek and uShape Music.

Investment moats is the competitive advantage of a company that allows it to fend off competition from its rivals and enable it to earn excess returns for many years. According to Morningstar’s Why Moats Matter, there is a stock research process which guides investors on how to invest in great businesses at the right time and make money from the stock market.

The process involves a bottom-up approach which requires investors to identify the company’s moat(s), establish the fair value and determine the margin of safety. On the surface, it may seem straightforward but when you put it into practice, it is not so simple.

Moat Sources

According to Morningstar’s investment framework, there are five main sources that a company may possess: intangible assets, cost advantage, switching costs, network effect and efficient scale. Now why is having a moat source important from an investor’s point of view? If you recall that 15 years ago, Nokia used to dominate the worldwide mobile phone market and boasted the majority market share for a number of years. However, the entry of Apple’s iphone in 2007 changed the game and led to a dramatic shift towards smartphone, leading to Nokia losing its status as the market leader.

Crowdfunding is the latest investment trend that uses online technology platforms to address both the needs of investors and small-medium enterprises (SME). At one hand, retail investors are looking for viable fixed income sources to grow their wealth. On the other hand, we have start-ups and SMEs which lack access to alternative pools of private financing, other than commercial banks. This is where crowdfunding can help to bridge the gap.

In a recent consultation paper issued, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is proposing measures to facilitate crowdfunding involving securities.

Generally there are four types of crowdfunding – donation-based, reward-based, lending-based and securities-based. According to MAS, donation-based and reward-based are not subjected to securities regulation as there are no exchange of securities and promised of financial returns. However, for lending-based and securities-based, MAS deemed that they are subjected to securities rules.

Henceforth, MAS’ proposed framework for securities-based include the requirement for companies operating lending-based or securities-based crowdfunding platforms to hold Capital Markets Services (“CMS”) licenses. In addition, MAS would restrict offerings from lending-based and securities-based to only Accredited (AIs) and Institutional Investors (IIs). The rationale for this approach is because MAS aims to safeguard the interest of retail investors as there is a certain amount of risks in such investment products and MAS deemed that AIs and IIs are better positioned to handle the level of risks involved as they have more capitals and experiences.

Many finance bloggers like to quote Warren Buffett’s saying “price is what you pay; value is what you get”. However, knowing this is one thing, practicing it is another matter altogether which requires some level of deep analysis. The fact is that you can’t determine the intrinsic value of a company just by staring at the figures stated in the quarterly or annual financial statements. According to MorningStar’s “Why Moats Matter”, there are generally two approaches when it comes to valuation concepts.

How do investors identify great companies? One of the simple tools to value company is through using earnings yield, or more commonly known in the investment community as Price/Earning (P/E) ratio. This simple method requires only current share price divided by the last 12 month’s earning. Companies with high P/E ratio are considered growth stocks.

There are pros and cons in using P/E ratio to measure the value of a company. Whilst this metric is relatively easy to calculate, this approach might not be appropriate for companies whose profits swing significantly from year to year. This is especially for for high growth stocks and cyclical companies like the airlines and IT companies.

Another approach of measuring the intrinsic value of a company is to determine the discounted cash-flow, or DCF.

Local movie producer and distributor, mm2 Asia Ltd has launched the Red Carpet Club, a programme targeted exclusively at shareholders and investors of the Group.

Up to 200 movie tickets of the preview screening on 16 February 2015 to be given away to shareholders ·

The cast of the movie will be present ·

Preview screening is the first of many perks that mm2 Asia is launching as part of its mm2 Red Carpet Club for shareholders ·

To be eligible for ticket entitlement, investors will need to be listed as a shareholder of mm2 Asia with a minimum holding of 1,000 shares as at 5.00 pm on 30 January 2015 

Newly-listed local movie producer and distributor, mm2 Asia Ltd. (“mm2 Asia” and together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”), today announced an exclusive treat for its shareholders. The Group will be giving away up to 200 tickets to its shareholders for the preview screening of the highly anticipated “Ah Boys to Men 3: Frogmen” on 16 February, a movie that is co-produced by the Group.

This preview for mm2 Asia’s shareholders will be ahead of the movie’s premiere on the big screens on 19 February.

In my previous post, I wrote that k1 Ventures might reward shareholders with dividends due to the divestment of China Auto Grand for $32 million. True enough, in today’s announcement, the management of k1 Ventures declared tax exempt one tier interim dividend of 1.5 cents per share. The dividend will be paid to shareholders on 12 February 2015 but the counter will go ex-dividend on 29 January 2015. Even though I am not vested in this counter, I feel happy for those who had invested in this counter.

In the current financial report, k1 Ventures classified the divestment of Helm, the long haul transport leasing business, as “discontinued”. This move effectively made k1 Ventures asset-lite because the heavy burden of long term debts was removed. Currently, the Group did not have any borrowing and is focused on managing the current portfolio of assets. In a way, it is a good move that k1 Ventures is not making any new investments because this will enable them to focus and maximize value on the proceeds from any realization of assets and to return the same to shareholders.

On the balance sheet, the Group has a net current asset of $84.3 millions. The shareholders’ funds decreased from $256.5 million at 30 June 2014 to $236.5 million at 31 December 2014.

When it comes to stock picking, one of the key criteria in evaluating the performance of the managers is how they deploy or handle cash flow within the business. For example, they may choose to use cash to reduce company’s debts, acquire other companies, buy-back shares or reward shareholders with dividends. Most investors, especially minority shareholders, would prefer the company to pay out dividends because it means a form of passive income for them. My favorite stock is k1 Ventures, one of the largest venture capitalists listed in SGX.

I have been tracking k1 Ventures for more than 10 years and had invested in the stock over the years. k1 Ventures is an investment holding company invested in diverse sectors such as finance, transportation, education and oil and gas. Those who are vested in this counter would know that this is an excellent stock which had paid out huge dividends over the years. Since FY05, it had consistently paid out dividends and if you had bought the share then and hold on to them till now, you would have an incredible yield of about 70%! Now, how many stocks in SGX are capable of giving this sort of dividends nowadays? Currently, I am not vested in this counter but am still tracking the company’s development for future investment opportunities.

Dear Gerald,

I remember seeing one of your blogs around end of December which listed your stock holding as at end 2014. I was just going through your blog again but I couldn’t find that anymore. Could you please let me know if that was deleted or it’s still there just that I missed it.

Cheers!

Cindy

I received the above email from one of my readers recently. In view of the historic highs recorded by the US stock market, I have sold off all my stocks since last year and re-position my fund to upgrade to a new and bigger house. I feel that given the current stock market climate, the risk premium is not worth my investment dollars as it is so hard to identify good companies worth investing for the long term and trading at reasonable price. However, I still believe the stock market present many opportunities to build wealth, and therefore, I take this “lull period” to polish my knowledge on how to become a better stock investor.

When I started out investing in stocks, I do not treat the stocks as if I owned the businesses. On hindsight, that was probably why I had a few hits and misses here and there.