OCBC share price on the rage!

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! Crisis? What crisis?! OCBC share price rubbished all talks of crisis to stage a return of the King! Year-to-date, OCBC share price rocketed 9.5% (at the point of writing). On the basis of the current run, will OCBC hit a record high of $14 in the coming days? This will be a quick article to update readers on the outlook of OCBC share price in the next two months.

On 27 January 2022, the US Federal Reserves indicated that the interest rate hikes will likely to take place in March and confirmed its plan to end bond purchases in that month. As I have mentioned many times in this blog, the interest rate hikes will benefit Singapore banks because of the increase in net interest income. For this reason, the upcoming interest rate hike news sent OCBC share price to the moon.

OCBC share price

The sizzling form of OCBC share price comes at a time when the bank is about to release its full year financial result for FY2021. The red-hot form of OCBC share price also coincided with the recovery of Singapore’ economy, which grew 7.2% in 2021. Talk about being at the right time and right place!

Admittedly, the recent phishing scams had rocked market sentiments to a certain extent. Arising from this, OCBC share price had been sluggish for the past two weeks. 470 victims had lost $8.5 million to the OCBC phishing scams. Nonetheless, it seems to me that the saga has come to an end as the bank offered to make goodwill payments to the victims.

OCBC share price to hit $19 by end 2022?

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OCBC share price to rocket with record earnings?

OCBC share price to rocket with Great Eastern Holdings exit?

Note that this is …

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Wilmar share price in explosive destiny!

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! Volatility remains the name of the game for Wilmar share price. In my last article on this counter, my forecast was that Wilmar share price may hit a high of $5.70 in February 2022. I have also suggested that the violent swings of Wilmar share price mean that this counter is not for the faint-hearted. Indeed, the see-saw movements of Wilmar share price had led to an SG Wealth Builder Lifetime member seeking my insights.

The performances of Wilmar share price remain one of the biggest enigmas of SGX mainboard. There are so many catalysts providing wind to the sail of Wilmar share price but the counter always flatter to deceive.

Take for example, the crude palm oil (CPO) price has hit the record high of RM5,497 per tonne on 24 January 2022. Being one of the largest oil palm plantation owners in the world, Wilmar should have benefitted from the raging CPO prices. Yet Wilmar share price did not rocket and has been blowing hot and cold lately. And then there is the upcoming India IPO of Adani Wilmar.

Wilmar share price

Although the Adani Wilmar India IPO is expected to unlock value for investors and provides positive sentiments for Wilmar share price, it is of significantly smaller scale as compared to the Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd, (“YKA”)’s IPO in October 2020. The YKA’s IPO resulted in a market capitalisation of RMB303.61 billion (approximately US$45.24 billion) as at 15 October 2020. On the other hand, Adani Wilmar is a 50-50 joint venture between Adani and Wilmar and the IPO is valued at about $646 million only.

Due to the massive size of the IPO, YKA has a huge bearing on Wilmar share price from October 2020 to early 2021. Despite being a subsidiary of Wilmar, YKA’s …

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Nanofilm share price (SGX: MZH) in horror meltdown

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! What a devastating meltdown. From a high of $6.30 in July 2021, Nanofilm share price (SGX: MZH) plunged more than 50% to reach the current low of $3.05. The capitulation of Nanofilm share price caught the attention of the investment community. Should Nanofilm investors run for their lives?

A Lifetime Member has written in to seek my views on this counter. Henceforth, I will share my insights on the two potential factors that could have knocked the wind out of Nanofilm share price.

Nanofilm share price

At the rate of correction, Nanofilm share price may reach the IPO price of $2.59. This is especially so if the upcoming full-year failed to meet investors’ expectations. When Nanofilm got listed on 30 October 2020, there was much hype among Singapore investment community due to the dearth of billion-dollar technology firm listings in SGX in recent years.

Indeed, Nanofilm share price made a strong start with an opening price of $2.77 and an intra-day high of $3.02. With solid support from a stellar group of institutional investors like Temasek Holdings, AIA, Credit Suisse, investing in this company seems like a no-brainer. Admittedly, I was tempted to enter this counter but stopped short of doing so because of my personal policy of not investing in a company that just got listed within the first five years. The explosive meltdown of Nanofilm share price vindicated my investment principle.

Just like retail investors, institutional investors also want to make money from IPOs. However, the key difference between these two groups of investors is that retail investors make money at the point of selling whereas big boys often make money at the point of buying. For this reason, retail investors would often buy high and sell high while big boys would big low and sell …

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AEM share price to jump 100% with new patent?

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! This will be my first article on AEM share price in 2022. All eyes should be on the upcoming FY2021 full-year financial result. Will it set AEM share price on fire like what it did in 2018?

From January to March 2018, AEM share price rocketed 100% to reach $1.87. The supersonic run of AEM share price was attributed to two factors – the award of patent for the technology used in its flagship product, High Density Modular Test (HDMT) equipment and also the ramp up of orders from its key customer, Intel.

AEM share price

The ramp up of orders from Intel led to an increase of 216% and 560% in revenue and profit for FY2017. The release of the full-year FY2017 financial result in early 2018 saw AEM share price roaring to high heavens. Will history repeat itself for AEM share price? Fast forward four years, the ramping of HDMT by Intel is over. However, AEM is launching is its next blockbuster product test equipment product – Asynchronous Massive Parallel (AMPS). This new capability allows high powered chip to be tested under thermal controlled environment without damaging the chip.

In my research, I found out that AEM had obtained the patent used in its AMPS (patent number: 20210325452). The patent was granted only on 21 October 2021. Prior to this, Temasek Holdings took up a substantial stake in AEM in August 2021. My hypothesis is that Temasek Holdings might have anticipated the grant of this patent to AEM and this could have prompted the sovereign wealth fund to invest in the company. Then on 25 November 2021, Temasek Holdings purchased another 443,700 shares from the market.

If you scan the landscape in Singapore, you would realize that there are very few listed home-grown technology companies …

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UOB share price given booster shot!

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! It appears to me that UOB share price is on fire after being given a booster shot! Lately, Singapore bank stocks were given a lift following news of the impending interest rate hikes by US Federal Reserves. However, UOB share price jumped to a whole new level following the announcement of the $5 billion acquisition of Citigroup’s Southeast Asia consumer business.

The Citigroup acquisition pushed UOB share price briefly passed the psychological $30 mark. This is a record level for UOB share price. Whether UOB share price can sustain this level remains to be seen in the coming days. Nonetheless, I doubt that UOB share price has peaked as the full-year financial result will be released only on 16 February. Given the lower allowances being made in FY2021, we should see full-year net profit registering a double-digit growth. In view of this, there should be plenty of headroom for UOB share price to rise in the next few weeks.

UOB share price

From a long-term perspective, the recent Citigroup acquisition is an interesting deal that could possibly shape the dynamics between the Singapore banking trio. Notably, this deal marked the first overseas acquisition under the helm of CEO Wee Ee Cheong. Wee Cho Yaw, handed the reins to Wee Ee Cheong in 2007. The last overseas acquisition under Wee Cho Yaw was for Indonesia bank, Buana, in 2005. Under the tenure of the senior Wee, UOB made a series of banks that included Bank of Asia, Chung Khiaw Bank, Far Eastern Bank. Radanasin Bank Thailand and Lee Wah Bank and OUB.

Despite the massive hype, the Citigroup deal is still less than the $10 billion that UOB paid for the acquisition of OUB. In June 2001, DBS launched a hostile takeover for OUB by tabling a bid …

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OCBC share price in supersonic boom!

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! Boom! OCBC share price turns on the style to hit a five-month high! The bullish form of OCBC share price comes at a time when the bank is about to release its full year financial result for FY2021. The red-hot form of OCBC share price also coincides with the recovery of Singapore’ economy, which grew 7.2% in 2021. Talk about being at the right time and right place!

Based on the past five years’ trend, OCBC share price would always start to rise in February and then peak in May. Following that OCBC share price would fall and then start to rise again and then peak in August. The cycle would keep on repeating based on data of past few years. The reason could be due to investors selling the shares after ex-dividend. Therefore, January could be the perfect window for investors to enter this counter.

OCBC share price

Take for example, OCBC share price surged from $12.20 in February 2018 to hit a high of $13.65 in May 2018. Subsequently, the counter nose-dived to a low of $11.25 in July 2018 before recovering to $11.80 in August 2018. Thereafter, the stock plunged to $10.40 in October 2018. The pattern would continue in the subsequent years. 2020 was an exception due to the onset of pandemic.

The correction of OCBC share price in May 2018 was probably also attributed to the implementation of the additional property cooling measures – implementation of the 12% Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) and tightening of Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit by 5%. Back then, the cooling measures impacted the home loan market, causing local banks to suffer collateral damage. Not surprisingly, the share prices of all three local banks got bombed out during that period.

The new property cooling measures unleashed in December 2021 did …

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ESR-REIT merger with ARA Logos Logistics Trust

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! On 3 November 2021, the shareholders of ESR Cayman gave the green light for the US$5.2 billion acquisition of the ARA Asset Management. ESR Cayman is listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange and is the sponsor of SGX-listed ESR-REIT. On the other hand, LOGOS is the sponsor of ARA Logos Logistics Trust and is majority-owned by ARA Asset Management. The acquisition of ARA Asset Management by ESR Cayman effectively paves the way for the ESR-REIT merger with ARA Logos Logistics Trust.

Although the writing is on the wall that the ESR-REIT merger is going to take place sooner or later, it is not a done deal yet. ESR-REIT unitholders are to cast the vote on 27 January 2022. For the resolution to be passed, more than 50% of the total number of votes is required. ARA Logos Logistics Trust unitholders will meet on the same day to vote but more than 75% of the votes is required for the resolution to be passed.

ESR-REIT merger

A Lifetime Member has requested for my insight on the ESR-REIT merger. As such, I will share my insights on this interesting development within the industrial S-REIT sector. Although I have no skin in the game, I am vested in Mapletree Logistics Trust which is a close competitor of ESR-REIT and ARA Logos Logistics Trust.

Big fish eat small fish and small fish eat shrimps. This is the fundamental fact of life. Amidst the fallout from the protracted pandemic crisis, the S-REIT sector is undergoing a sweeping consolidation. Before I touch on my thoughts on the ESR-REIT merger, it may be useful to lay out some background information on the two S-REITs. Interestingly, the two candidates in this story were the result of a series of mergers and acquisitions prior to this ESR-REIT …

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MLT share price (SGX: M44U) met hurricane!

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! What a cocktail of headwinds for Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT). Following the $700 million equity fund raising announced on 23 November 2021, MLT share price plunged from $2.00 to the current low of $1.78. To rub salt into injury, the proposed merger between Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT) compounds further misery on MLT share price as market rumours spread like wildfire that the MLT and MINT could be the next merger on the cards.

MLT share price

To put things into perspective, rumours of a merger between MLT and MINT have been brewing for a number of years. To address the market rumours, the management clarified on 10 January 2022 that there was no plan to merge MLT and MINT as both entities have different investment mandates and operate in different asset classes. Despite that clarification, the recent merger between MCT and MNACT rattled MLT share price.

MLT invests primarily in logistics and warehouses assets whereas MINT’s assets comprise of mainly industrial real estates in Singapore and data centres. Both S-REITs share the same sponsor and both are Straits Times Index (STI) components.

MLT has a slightly bigger market capitalization ($8.5 billion) as compared to MINT ($7 billion). Thus, if a merger is to take place, it should be MLT “acquiring” MINT. Given that the share price of the acquiring company usually declines, this may be the reason for the bearish trend of MLT share price in recent days. Year-to-date, MLT share price fell 5.3% vis-à-vis MINT’s decline of 3.3% (at the point of writing).

In my opinion, I hope the merger will not take place as MLT’s competitive edge in the warehouse logistics is rather niche. A merger with MINT could complicate things and create new risk exposures in different …

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Wilmar share price (SGX: F34) storming to $5.70?

Lifetime Membership Special Offer! In my last article on Wilmar share price (SGX: F34) in September 2021, I wrote that this counter could face huge turmoil in the short-term. Indeed, Wilmar share price continued to disappoint for the rest of 2021. The counter ended the year on $4.140, a far cry from the high of $5.57 seen in February 2021. Will Wilmar share price return to form in 2022?

The dismal form of Wilmar share price is indeed puzzling as the Group has been racking in explosive profits in FY2021. Thus, investors must be wondering what on earth could have caused the rupture of Wilmar share price. In this article, I will share with readers the compelling reason for the downtrend of Wilmar share price, which is linked to the business fundamentals. In the latter part of the article, I will also share my analysis on why Wilmar share price may hit $5.70 in February 2022.

Wilmar share price

In 2020, I invested in Wilmar and exited at a profit of $2,700 in early 2021. My lowest entry for Wilmar share price was $4.84 and I exited at $5.20. While I did not exit at the highest point of $5.60, I have no regrets selling my Wilmar stocks. In life, you can never sell at the highest price. I am happy as long as I made decent profits. Although I am not vested in this counter any more, I am still bullish about Wilmar share price in the long-run because of the business strategies undertaken by the management.

The key reason for my exit in early 2021 was due to the financial result for FY2020. In my analysis, I saw that the net cash flows from operating activities for six months ended 31 December 2020 was a negative US$1.52 billion vis-à-vis the positive

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OCBC share price (SGX: O39) to rocket with record earnings?

Sign up for only $19.99! My first article of the year will be on OCBC share price (SGX: O39). 2022 is considered by many investors to be a pivotal year as Singapore’s economy continues its path of recovery from the devastating pandemic. Many of us harbour fervent hopes that 2022 will herald the light at end of tunnel for this never-ending crisis. Inevitably, investors’ attention will focus on bank stocks like DBS, OCBC and UOB as they are the bellwether of the economy.

All eyes should be on the full-year financial result, which is expected to be released in the third week of February 2022. Will the result set OCBC share price on fire? Based on 9MFY2021 result, the net profit reached $3.885 billion while the net profit amounted to $1.224 billion in 3QFY2021. Looking at the trend of the past three quarters’ result, there is a strong possibility that 4QFY2021 may hit at least $1.2 billion of profit. If so, then full-year net profit for OCBC could smash a record $5 billion!

OCBC share price

The previous record net profit for OCBC was in FY2019 ($4.87 billion). Unfortunately, that result was released in February 2020, which was right smack in the initial onset of the pandemic. The ensuing chaos in the global markets caused OCBC share price to plummet to a low of $8.40 on 20 March 2020.

Before the current crisis, the first time that OCBC Bank’s reported a net profit surpassing the $4 billion mark was for full-year 2017. Consequently, OCBC share price turbocharged to hit a record high of $13.70 in April 2018. If history is to repeat itself, there is a strong possibility that OCBC share price could be charging its way to $14 in the coming months.

Interestingly, OCBC Bank has ceased its relentless daily …

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