SG Wealth Builder

Lifetime Membership In stock market, October has a psychological effect on investors as some of the worst market crashes happened in this month – the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987. If investors look back, Wall Street ripped the world apart with Dow Jones plunging by 832 points on 11 October 2018. Back then, Straits Times Index (STI) took the cue and fell by 84 points. Then in October 2020, Dow Jones collapsed by a whopping 2000 points. In this context, how will DBS Group Holdings share price unravel in October 2022?

Back in August 2022, I wrote that DBS Group Holdings share price could be in for a rough ride following the release of a set of new property cooling measures. True enough, the authorities did unleash a set of new cooling measures on 29 September 2022 to rein in the relentless rising property prices in Singapore.

In that article, I predicted that the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for bank loans would be lowered from 75% to 70%. Further, I was expecting the Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) to be raised yet again. It turned out that the LTV limit for HDB loans and the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) were tightened instead.

Lifetime Membership This is my first article on ESR-LOGOS REIT (SGX: J91U) after the merger between ESR REIT and ALOG. Shares of the combined entities started trading from 5 May 2022 but the unit price had been dropping like flies. Year-to-date, the counter collapsed by a whopping 26%. With no end in sight, the falling unit price of ESR-LOGOS REIT is indeed disturbing for unitholders.

Unitholders from both ESR REIT and ALOG camps had been very supportive of the merger, with 98.4% of the former and 94.8% of the latter voting in favour of the merger. On this basis, the bearish form of ESR-LOGOS REIT is unlikely due to sell-offs by disgruntled unitholders. Rather, the decline in unit price of ESR-LOGOS REIT should be attributed to the challenging market conditions and the issuance of new units to fund the acquisition of ALOG units.

The total consideration for the merger was approximately $1.4 billion based on the scheme consideration of $0.95 for each ALOG unit. 1.6765 new ESR-REIT units were issued for each ALOG units, issued at $0.51.

It is not difficult to understand why unitholders had voted overwhelmingly for the merger. Post-merger, ESR-LOGOS REIT will ascend to one of the top ten largest S-REIT by market capitalization.

Lifetime Membership It seems like yesterday when I founded SG Wealth Builder. I can still remember the explosive passion and excitement when launching this wealth blog. Twelve years had passed and the energy remains amazingly strong. During this period, there had been a lot of twists and turns. Nevertheless, the brand of this blog grew from strength to strength. Over time, I have also developed a voice that connects with my readers. It is this distinctive voice that attracted readers to keep coming back to this blog and many had become long-time followers. Now, I would like to take this opportunity to explain why I had converted this blog into a membership site.

Value is what attracted readers and followers to SG Wealth Builder. Many people who visited my blog had provided numerous feedback that they had learned useful things that they were able to apply in their wealth building journey. Such compliments often invoked deep sense of self-satisfaction and achievement inside me.

To be able to make a difference in others certainly create a profound feeling. Thus, the motivation to bring this relationship to another level. In this article, I am going to share 7 reasons to sign up SG Wealth Builder Membership.

Sign up for only $19.99! After hitting a record high of $3.05 in October 2020, Keppel DC REIT (AJBU) share price lost its explosive steam and crashed to Earth. What on Earth is happening to the data-centre S-REIT? That month also saw Keppel DC REIT being included in the Straits Times Index (STI). In this blog, I have always stressed that being included in the STI is a double-edged sword – there are benefits in terms of increased stock liquidity. On the other hand, there are also risks which I will share in this article.

The last time that I covered Keppel DC REIT share price was in June 2022. Back then, the counter was trading at $2.05. Fast forward three months later, Keppel DC REIT share price continued its sluggish form, falling to the dismal $1.80 level. A member of SG Wealth Builder has written in to express her concerns on the falling Keppel DC REIT unit price.Currently, I am holding to another STI constituent – Mapletree Logistics Trust. Just like Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics has been in a severe bout of correction mode since last year, falling by 13.8% year-to-date. As such, I can share the feelings of Keppel DC REIT unitholders right now as I face the same predicament as them.

Sign up for only $19.99! What a disaster! Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT) share price became the talk of the town following the shocking failed attempt to privatise the S-REIT. 74.88% of the votes were cast in favour of the privatisation, just a whisker short of the 75% required for the deal to push through. Consequently, FHT share price suffered a catastrophic meltdown, falling by 23% to reach $0.54 within a week.

The failed privatisation deal, coupled with the devastating fallout for FHT share price, should be a surprise outcome for Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi. After all, Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust (FLT) and Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) were merged successfully in 2020 without any hiccups. Many investors had anticipated a “straightforward outcome” for the privatisation scheme. In this regard, the coming days should see plenty of reckoning among FHT unitholders.

An SG Wealth Builder had enquired what will happen next for FHT and if there are any such precedents. Off-hand, all I can say is that it should be business as usual for FHT unitholders but the implication for FHT share price is another ball game altogether. I will elaborate further on this later.

In terms of similar cases of privatisation flops in SGX, the attempts by OCBC to privatise Great Eastern Holdings in 2004 and 2006 came to mind.

Sign up for only $19.99! Three cheers for Chip Eng Seng! Shares of the property developer has been in splendid form since May when Singapore lifted its border restrictions and eased most of the public health measures. Year-to-date, Chip Eng Seng share price rocketed 70%. In contrast, many SGX stocks have been in sluggish forms following the fallout from US Federal interest rate hikes and the on-going Russian-Ukraine war. Against this backdrop, the supersonic form of Chip Eng Seng is certainly eye-catching.

The recent revival of Chip Eng Seng must be surreal for investors. After all, the past two years had been an absolute nightmare for the property developer due to the pandemic. Losses after tax in 2021 amounted to $21.6 million while losses in 2020 amounted to a whopping $78.5 million. However, the Group managed to achieve an impressive turnaround by clocking in net profit of $38.5 million in the first half of 2022. Talk about light at end of tunnel!

This article was requested by an SG Wealth Builder member. On a personal front, I have some affinity with Chip Eng Seng as my late father used to be one of their sub-contractors transporting sands to their construction projects about 30 years ago.

Sign up for only $19.99! Since my last coverage on Singtel share price (SGX: Z74) on 25 April 2022, the counter went through some bouts of volatility. The stock was actually on a bullish form in the earlier part of the year, surging from $2.30 in January 2022 to a high of $2.80 in May 2022. Then the series of US Fed interest rates came along to douse the bullish form of Singtel share price.

Despite the volatility, an interesting trend is beginning to form for Singtel share price. Year-to-date, the counter has increased about 12%, outperforming the Straits Times Index (STI). The encouraging form of Singtel share price is attributed to the easing of the COVID-19 restrictions since March 2022.  Consequently, international visitor arrivals jumped almost 12 times year-on-year to reach 1.5 million during the first half of the year.

Singtel’s sprawling telco businesses are prone to the impact of the pandemic as a significant portion of the Group’s revenue is derived from roaming revenue from tourists. Hence, the lifting of border restrictions and easing of public health measures should benefit Singtel’s Singapore Consumer business. Furthermore, its regional associate’s businesses will also benefit from cross border travel as Southeast Asia countries start to ease borders’ restrictions too.

Sign up for only $19.99! My last article on Keppel Infrastructure Trust (KIT) was more than two years ago. Back then, the onset of pandemic had created much uncertainty and volatility for global stock markets. KIT unit price was not spared from the carnage. The resulting meltdown prompted the management to conduct shares buyback to halt the collapse of KIT unit price. By 3 April 2020, 4.75 million of KIT shares had been repurchased, restoring sanity for the counter.

Time flies. In the blink of an eye, Singapore has reopened its borders and eased most of the pandemic public health measures. As such, I do think it is time opportune to do an article on Singapore’s largest infrastructure business trust, Keppel Infrastructure Trust. Also, a member of SG Wealth Builder had requested for a stock analysis of Keppel Infrastructure Trust, which I would duly oblige.

In my view, the biggest relief for unitholders must be the end of saga for Keppel Infrastructure Trust’s asset – Basslink, which was placed under voluntary administration on 12 November 2021. The debt ridden Basslink operates an undersea cable in Australia and had been involved in a legal dispute with its customer Hydro Tasmania. To make things worse, Keppel Infrastructure Trust had been unable to sell the asset to white knight, APA Group.

Sign up for only $19.99! On 24 August 2022, Singapore announced further relaxation of COVID-19 measures. Effective 29 August 2022, non-fully vaccinated travellers will be allowed to enter Singapore without applying for approval. In addition, wearing of mask is optional except on public transport and in healthcare facilities. These relaxations should further expedite the recovery of the travel-related sector, thereby benefitting S-REITs like OUE Commercial REIT.

Despite the positive developments, it is not going to be smooth sailing for OUE Commercial REIT as the operating environment has turned significantly dark. Obviously, the market is still reeling from the fallout arising from Russia invasion of Ukraine. Supply chain has been disrupted and inflation rates rocketed in many countries. Against this backdrop, US Federal Reserves has raised interest rates four times, bringing federal fund rate to between 2.25% and 2.5%.

A member of SG Wealth Builder has requested for a stock analysis of OUE Commercial REIT and sought my opinion on the management team’s competency. Year-to-date, the unit price has tanked by about 14.8% (at the point of writing). In terms of unit price performances, OUE Commercial REIT is easily one of the worst among the commercial S-REITs. What could be the factor for the bearish form?

Sign up for only $19.99! What a comeback! Following the release of a set of stellar 1HFY2022 financial result, Raffles Medical share price soared 17% within a week. The recovery of Raffles Medical share price must be surreal for investors as the counter collapsed spectacularly in February 2022 following the release of a set of decent financial result for FY2021.

The bearish form of Raffles Medical share price in late 2021 was attributed to the change in the COVID-19 test policy. Raffles Medical share (SGX: BSL) had ridden on the pandemic wave as the Group provides PCR swab tests services. Then again, it is always a risky business to pivot a business on pandemic measures.

In early 2022, Raffles Medical share price came under further pressure due to the lockdowns in China cities, which impacted the Group’s three hospitals in China. According to the management, Raffles Hospital Shanghai was the most impacted. To cushion the impact, the Group conducted a series of shares buybacks to rescue Raffles Medical share price. For the new financial year, the Group acquired 5.3 million of shares from the market. As at 28 June, the number of treasury shares held was 23.3 million.

Here’s why Raffles Medical share price plunged 12%

Raffles Medical share price in sensational return!

Sign up for only $19.99! Bring on the champagne! Light up the fireworks! AEM share price looks set for a splendid run after the Group delivered an incredibly stellar 1HFY2022 financial result. Revenue for 1H2022 surged by 181% year-on-year to $540.5 million, while net profit rocketed 180% year-on-year to smash $83 million. The first half revenue and net profit were the highest in the Group’s history.

Prior to the result release, many investors (including myself) have the jitters. After all, Intel has posted a brutal US$500 million loss in the second quarter, resulting in the company cutting back on expenditure. Nonetheless, AEM survived the scare to post a stellar financial result. While it is too early to claim that AEM has managed to weed off its reliance on Intel for revenue, the result could push AEM to expedite its effort in diversifying revenue source.

The patent obtained in July for the thermal control for its System Level Test equipment would give AEM the trump card in its negotiation with the top ten semiconductor companies. The contract wins from 2 major customers vindicated my belief that intellectual property is the way to win the battle.

The contract wins came from “a leading High-Performance Computing (“HPC”)/Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) company” and “a leading mobile devices company”.

Sign up for only $19.99! It could be peace before the perfect storm. Following the release of a decent set of financial result, the DBS share price has stalled somewhat. Rightfully, investors should have plenty to cheer about as the rising interest rates should provide power tailwinds for the bank’s business. Nonetheless, in today’s context, things aren’t always so straightforward.

Being the largest lender in Singapore, DBS’ business is sensitive to new property cooling measures. In the December 2021 cooling measures, the loan-to-value for HDB loans was tightened. However, it should be noted that round of cooling measures did not affect financial institution loans. As such, DBS housing loan portfolio has been resilient so far.

Fast forward to August 2022, the world has changed so much. Yes, the pandemic is still around but the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has created plenty of market chaos like never before. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is struggling to tame raging inflation by hiking interest rates. Despite these uncertainties, Singapore property market continued to defy gravity, with property prices sky-rocketing.

According to URA, prices of private residential properties increased by 3.5% in 2nd quarter of 2022, compared with the 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. 

Lifetime Membership On 21 July 2022, Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U) delivered its 1QFY2022/2023 result. In view of this, its time to take stock the performance of the S-REIT. Unit price had tumbled following the US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in March and May. Subsequently, it seems that the counter had bottomed in late May as unit price began to start climbing. The tepid unit price performances were attributed to the lack of buying by institutional investors. For the past 7 months, Mapletree Logistics Trust did not feature in the SGX Top Ten Institutional Net Buy Stocks.

The million-dollar question confronting investors right now must be whether Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) will launch another mega equity financing to fund its overseas logistics asset acquisitions. The $700 million equity fundraising in November 2021 to purchase the China, Vietnam and Japan assets had knocked the wind out of the unit price, which never returned to the $2.00 mark prior to the equity fundraising.

For background, the principal activity of MLT is to invest in a diversified portfolio of logistics real estate in Asia Pacific with the aim of providing its unitholders with a stable distribution stream. As at 30 June 2022, the Group’s portfolio had grown to a portfolio of 185 properties in Singapore, Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam.

Lifetime Membership On 5 July 2022, AEM obtained the grant of patent for the thermal control technology used in its System Level Test equipment. Will this patent change the fortune of the semiconductor test equipment manufacturer? Following the fallouts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and soaring interest rates, AEM share price has been in sluggish form in 2022. Year-to-date, AEM share price slumped by about 17%.

One should not underestimate the potential impact of the new patent on AEM share price. Non-executive Chairman Loke Wai San was the man who led AEM out of dark Egypt when the former management was embroiled in a corruption scandal in 2012. Back then, AEM share price was on the brink of collapse and the company had been placed on the SGX Watch-List.

Despite the challenges, Loke Wai San saw the potential in the equipment business due to the partnership with leading US chipmaker, Intel. The decision proved to be pivotal as the partnership between AEM and Intel led to a patent for its test handling stacking technology. The patent was granted in March 2018. If investors look back, AEM share price used to trade at less than $0.10 in 2016. The patent turbocharged AEM share price to nearly $2.00 in March 2018.

Lifetime Membership Investors must have that “uh-oh” feeling. iFAST share price looks set for an explosive thrashing following the revelation of net loss of $2.69 million recorded in 2QFY2022. The net loss was a complete reversal from the $7 million net profit recorded in 2QFY2021. The management claimed that the bizarre net loss was attributable to the one-time estimated impairment allowance of $5.2 million from its exit of iFAST India Holdings Pte Ltd (“iFAST India Holdings”). Nonetheless, investors wasted no time punishing the counter as it sank from $4.00 on 22 July to a low of $3.72 on 25 July.

In my blog, I have cautioned before that whenever a listed company announced its financial result in the middle of the night or over the weekends, you can be sure like hell that the result is going to be awful. Indeed, this was what happened to iFAST when the Group released its 1HFY2022 financial result on 23 July 2022 (a Saturday morning). In the good old days, such a strategy could help to break the fall of iFAST share price. However, with the proliferation of financial blogs in Singapore, such trick may not work.

What goes up must come down.

Lifetime Membership On 19 July 2022, Sembcorp Industries issued a profit guidance that the “financial results for 1H2022 is expected to be materially higher than 1H2021”. In this regard, investors should expect plenty of fireworks for Sembcorp Industries share price on 5 August 2022. However, before Nirvana can be reached, investors must put on their seat belt as stock market may be roiled yet again by the upcoming US FOMC meeting which herald another interest rate hike.

Being an utility company and waste management company, Sembcorp Industries’ businesses are deemed defensive, serving as an hedging investment amid the inflationary environment. Against the backdrop of soaring commodity prices, the Group’s Conventional Energy business is expected to be given a strong tailwind due to the strong energy demand and higher margins.

For FY2021, Conventional Energy business was the largest profit contributor as the segment raked in $174 million of net income. If it’s not for the $212 million impairment of Chongqing Songzao power plant incurred, Sembcorp Industries would have posted a significantly larger profit for FY2021. Henceforth, all eyes will be on the performance of the Conventional Energy business this year.

In FY2021, Singapore and India markets contributed 62% and 19% of revenue respectively.

Lifetime Membership Is NetLink NBN Trust share price on magic potion? The soaring interest rates and raging inflation had walloped global stock markets, sending growth stocks into a devastating tailspin. Amid the chaos, NetLink NBN Trust share price remains rock solid. Why so?

My last article on NetLink NBN Trust share price was in 2019. An update on this counter is long overdue. In addition, an SG Wealth Builder member wrote in to enquire about the “weak” performance of the stock. As such, I will do some deep dive into the outlook of NetLink NBN Trust share price in 2022.

Needless to say, the operating environment has turned significantly dark vis-à-vis the time when NetLink NBN Trust got listed in 2017. The pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation and interest rate hikes had torpedoed numerous growth stocks. In fact, global stock markets have been on a knife edge due to these dark events. Interestingly, NetLink NBN Trust’s business appears relatively unaffected by these adverse events for the past two years.

At an average trading price of $0.96, NetLink NBN Trust is being traded at a level above the IPO price in 2017. Year-to-date, NetLink NBN Trust share price has dropped marginally by only about 3.5%.

Sign up for only $19.99! One man’s poison is another’s meat. The interest rate hikes by US Federal Reserve has rattled global stock markets. In June 2022, inflation in US rocketed to 9.1%, the highest in 40 years. Due to this, the market is fearing another interest rate hike of 75 basis points, potentially sparking a flight to safety among investors. While investors are fleeing from the stock market, demand for Singapore Savings Bond had reached record high.

Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) was launched by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in 2015. The bond is designed to be a safe and flexible investment product that allows Singaporeans to meet their savings and investment needs. Though SSB is structured as a bond, the product has some features that make it more like a fixed deposit because of its liquidity. The distinctive feature of SSB is that the interest rate increases the longer you hold, with a 10-year maturity.

In the initial years, the demand for SSB had been lacklustre. When it was launched in October 2015, a total of $1.2 billion worth of SSB was offered but only $418 million was sold. The effective return per year for the initial batch was 2.63%, which was quite decent if you asked me.

Sign up for only $19.99! How high will it go? Since my last article on Hour Glass share price in May 2021, the counter went berserk. Back then, I had predicted that Hour Glass share price had the potential to reach $1.30. However, the counter went on a rampage and smashed a record high of $2.50 on 6 May 2022. Given the splendid form of Hour Glass share price, investors must be feeling surreal.

The supersonic form of Hour Glass share price is in stark contrast to the decline in the broad market. Despite the horrible operating environment, the management of Hour Glass managed to steer the company through the storm. For the past five years, revenue grew steadily from $698 million in FY2018 to a high of $1.03 billion in FY2022. During the corresponding period, net profit soared from $50 million to $155 million, a three-fold increase. Henceforth, the bullish form of Hour Glass share price is based on strong business fundamentals.

The raging form of Hour Glass share price has led to the market capitalization to cross the $1 billion mark. At the point of writing, the market capitalization was $1.66 billion. Within a year, Hour Glass has reached the billion-dollar league.

Sign up for only $19.99! Basically, the wheels came off the wagon. After charging to a record high of $37.20 on 14^th February 2022, DBS Group Holdings share price crashed to Earth, falling by a whopping 19% to reach $30.20 (at the point of writing). The bearish form of DBS Group Holdings share price certainly confounded investors as many are expecting the bank to benefit from the on-going interest rate hikes. What on earth is happening to the leading light of SGX?

Truth be told, DBS Bank turned in a subpar 1^st quarter performance despite the rising interest rates. Net profit dropped 10% year-on-year to reach $1.8 billion. Many investors were still bullish on DBS Group Holdings share price following the acquisition of Citibank Taiwan consumer bank in January 2022. So you can imagine investors’ disappointment when the 1^st quarter business update was announced.

The culprits for the poorer financial performances in 1QFY2022 were net fee income and other non-interest income. Apparently, the weaker market sentiment affected the bank’s wealth management and investment banking. The first quarter business update did not provide a detailed breakdown on the business performance. Nonetheless, I suspect the lockdowns in China (DBS has stakes in two banks in China) and the capitulation of cryptocurrencies may have led to collateral damage to the wealth management and investment banking arms of DBS, thereby causing DBS Group Holdings share price to lose steam.

Sign up for only $19.99! Amid the soaring commodity prices, the sluggish share prices of SGX-listed commodity firms had left many investors feeling exasperated. Their agony is understandable. After all, commodity businesses are highly cyclical in nature. If the company share price missed this current boat, you never know when will the next upturn come. In this regard, will Rex Intl share price swim or sink?

A member of SG Wealth Builder has enquired the bearish form of Rex Intl share price in 2022. Indeed, oil prices had been in a stupendous form since the start of the year, driven largely by the war in Ukraine. Rex Intl is an oil exploration and production company with a focus in Oman, Malaysia and Norway. So logically, the current oil boom should lift Rex Intl share price. Yet year-to-date, Rex Int share price tanked 17%. Sound ridiculous right?

What made the form of Rex Intl share price so unpalatable to investors was that [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only. To read the full content, please sign up as member.]

Sign up for only $19.99! According to the latest World Bank report, coal prices had reached an all-time high in March following the start of the war in Ukraine. The surge is due to the increased demand for coal as a substitute for natural gas in electricity generation. Against this backdrop, Geo Energy share price stunned many investors as the share price of the coal mining group crashed from a high of $0.58 in April 2022 to the current $0.38. The bizarre drop led to a query from a concerned SG Wealth Builder Member.

What made the meltdown of Geo Energy share price so extraordinary was that it came on the back of a stellar financial performance. In February 2022, the Group announced that net profit for FY2021 amounted to US$179.1 million, representing a complete turnaround from the net loss of US$11.5 million from operations in 2020. However, a deeper analysis revealed that the outlook for Geo Energy may not be so rosy in the near future. Apparently, the big boys are aware of this and are shorting the counter.

In my previous article, I have shared with readers how to use SGX short-selling data to determine if a particular SGX stock has been targeted by short-sellers.

Sign up for only $19.99! Is CEO Wong Kim Yin the Special One to bring Sembcorp Industries to the Holy Land? Since the explosive divorce with Sembcorp Marine, Sembcorp Industries share price had gone from strength to strength, surging from $1.18 in September 2020 to the recent $2.87. Within the span of nearly 2 years, Sembcorp Industries share price rocketed 140%. Given the splendid form of Sembcorp Industries share price, credit should be given to the Group CEO, Wong Kim Yin, who joined the Group only in July 2020.

In 2022, against the backdrop of a challenging operating environment, Sembcorp Industries share price confounded many investors by continuing its fine run. Year-to-date, Sembcorp Industries share price rocketed 42% (at the point of writing). Given that pandemic is not still not over yet and the world is still coming to terms with the fallout from the Ukraine-Russia war, the rampant run of Sembcorp Industries share price is indeed puzzling. What could be the driving forces for this counter?

In my assessment, the clue can be gleaned from the full-year annual report. The annoying thing about Sembcorp Industries is that the company stopped publishing quarterly financial result since 2020 after SGX waived off this requirement.

Sign up for only $19.99! Recently, a Lifetime Member of SG Wealth Builder enquired about the SGX short selling data. As such, I will share with readers on how to find this data in SGX website. Readers should find this data useful as it may provide important clues on the performances of a stock. From the SGX short selling data, investors may also know if short sellers are behind the volatility of a stock.

Disclaimer for this article: SGX did not pay me to write this article nor am I promoting short selling. In addition, the information contained in this article is based entirely on my research obtained from content provided in SGX website. I do not have experience on SGX short selling.

Generally speaking, short selling helps to prevent the market from becoming over-exuberance. This is especially so during bull market when share prices get ahead of the business growth. Therefore, short selling allows for efficient market pricing and enables investors to hedge their portfolio. Although short selling has it merits, such activity may be disruptive to the market if it spirals out of control. Hence, Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and SGX publish information on SGX short selling activities so that there is transparency.

Lifetime Membership The past few days had been absolutely chaotic as global stock markets tumbled over fear of recession and soaring inflation in US. Investors were bracing for US Federal Reserves to raise interest rate hikes aggressively to fight the raging inflation. Consequently, the Federal Reserves did raise interest rate – by a whopping 75 basis points, the biggest hike since 1994. Will OCBC share price rocket in the aftermath of the interest rate hike?

Conventional wisdom indicates that bank stocks should perform well in high inflationary environment as high interest rates generally lead to higher net interest incomes for the banks. This was my hypothesis when I invested in 6000 of OCBC shares in August 2021. Back then, I anticipated that US Federal Reserves would hike interest rates this year and that Singapore bank stocks would be the biggest beneficiary from the rate hikes. However, OCBC share price flatter to deceive. And I was humbled.

Till date, US Federal Reserves had raised interest rate by 150 basis points (75 basis points on 15 June, 50 basis points on 7 May and 25 basis points on 17 March). Yet, OCBC share price remained stagnant year-to-date (at the point of writing). The sluggish OCBC share price prompted me to sell when OCBC share price was trading at $12.40 in May 2022.

Lifetime Membership The power tailwind may turn out to be a deadly headwind. Many analysts, including myself, had believed that the ongoing US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes will turbocharge Singapore bank stocks like DBS Group Holdings share price to high heavens. Yet that fantasy has not materialized despite the fact that US Federal Reserves had raised interest rate by 75 basis points (50 basis points on 7 May and 25 basis points on 17 March). Year-to-date, DBS Group Holdings share price had tumbled 8% instead. What the hell has happened to the leading light of SGX?

A concerned SG Wealth Builder Lifetime member has written in to enquire about the bizarre performance of Singapore bank stocks against the backdrop of rising interest rates. To be fair, US bank stocks like Bank of America and JP Morgan have performed worse in comparison to their Singapore counterparts, falling by an average of 25% year-to-date.

The prevalent thinking is that the surging inflation, coupled with the rising interest rates, could tip global economy into a recession. It also doesn’t help that the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict worsens the global supply-chain disruption brought forth by the pandemic. All these uncertainties create fear in the market.

Lifetime Membership What a devastating plunge! From $13.06 on its first trading day (2 December 2021), Grab share price plunged by 80% to reach the abysmal level of $2.90. The terrifying nose-dive made Grab shares one of the worst IPO performers in recent memory, triggering plenty of soul-searching among investors.

Lately, one of my Lifetime Members wrote in to enquire about the disappointing performance of the “Super App” in Nasdaq. He also enquired if Grab should be listed in Southeast Asia instead of US. Indeed, much ink has been spilled on the volatility of Grab share price. I will attempt to cover the poor performance of Grab share price from another perspective.

When Grab debut in Nasdaq, data revealed that the short interest volume (29.4 million) had already exceeded the average daily share volume (26.7 million). To be frank, this is nothing out of ordinary. In the US market, short selling attacks are very prevalent. But what is intriguing is that the short interest for Grab surged consistently since IPO to reach more than 4-fold.

Based on the short interest data, it appears to me that the short-sellers have very bearish outlook for Grab share price. In fact, the volumes of short interest in the past six months are also not showing any signs of peaking.

Lifetime Membership When SPH shareholders approved the acquisition by Cuscaden Peak on 22 March 2022, the writing was on the wall that SPH REIT would be the next to be acquired. Indeed, the consortium subsequently announced the chain offer of SPH REIT at $0.9640 per unit on 29 April 2022. Should unitholders accept, reject or run for their lives?

Cuscaden Peak is a consortium that is made up of entities linked to Hotel Properties (40%), CapitaLand Group (30%) and Mapletree Investments (30%). Given that CapitaLand and Mapletree are majority-controlled by Temasek Holdings and are sponsors of S-REITs, what is the possibility of the assets of SPH REIT being injected into MPACT or CICT? In life, never say never. After all, the S-REIT sector is undergoing a wave of consolidation post-pandemic.

Before we talk about life after the chain offer, let’s take a look at the unfolding chain offer. It should be noted that after adjusting for the 1QFY2022 and 2QFY2022 distributions, the offer price is actually $0.9372 per unit. At the point of writing, SPH REIT unit price is being traded at $0.945. In this regard, some unitholders may feel that they were given a raw deal. One member of SG Wealth Builder even enquired if a delisting is on the cards.

Lifetime Membership Since the start of the year, stock market sentiments have been pretty much bearish. The US Federal interest rate hikes, combined with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have created much uncertainties for the market. For this reason, it is not surprising that the unit price of Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU) turned sluggish, falling by 17% year-to-date. Several members of SG Wealth Builder have written to express their concerns on the falling Keppel DC REIT unit price.

From $3.00 in January 2021 to the current $2.05, the correction in Keppel DC REIT unit price has lasted for more than a year. As the plunge started before the events unfolded in 2022, the drop is indeed puzzling. In this regard, unitholders have every reason to be concerned. Some of them are also wondering if it is worthwhile to continue holding the stock. Although I am not vested in this counter and could not advise members or readers on the course of actions for their investments, I would like to share my investment approach for S-REITs.

Currently, I am vested in another S-REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust. I entered at $1.96 in last year. Like Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust has been in a severe bout of correction mode since last year, falling by 11.7% year-to-date.