Stocks

The recent corruption fine on Keppel Corporation amounting to $566.91 million by US, Brazil and Singapore authorities certainly rocked the market. The record fine came at a time when the oil market is perceived to be recovering from a devastating three-year slump. But more importantly, as a government-linked company, the episode left a taint on the reputation of Singapore, widely known to be one of the most corruption free cities in the world.

But beyond the corruption scandal, a far more sinister probably awaits Keppel Corp. In my opinion, it could be the dominance of US shale oil production that may change the game for the Singapore blue chip. Whilst the corruption fine may be staggering, Keppel Corp’s balance sheet is strong enough to withstand the impact without incurring significant damages to its growth prospects.

Diversified businesses

As an industrial conglomerate, Keppel Corporation has four major business divisions – Offshore and Marine, Property, Infrastructure and Investments. Keppel O&M (KOM) specializes in offshore rig design, construction and repair, ship repair and conversion, and specialised shipbuilding. It integrates and harnesses the experience and expertise of 20 yards and offices worldwide to be near customers and markets.

[This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only.

From pork seller to CEO. Nope, this is not the plot of the latest Mediacorp drama nor the story of SG Wealth Builder. Instead, it is the real success story of Mr Lim Hock Chee, CEO of Sheng Siong. From a humble outlet at Ang Mo Kio, Mr Lim grew Sheng Siong to the third largest supermarket operator in Singapore and eventually got it listed in 2011.

Since its debut at IPO price of $0.33, the share price had been surging in recent years and even crossed the $1.00 in 2016. Given the bullish form, should investors enter this counter now or is it a value trap?

2017 proved to be another great year for Sheng Siong as the home-grown supermarket operator achieved revenue of $629 million and net profit of $52.8 million for nine months, an increase of 5% and 11.8% respectively year-on-year. The results were certainly impressive given the current weak retail sentiments. But as shared in my previous articles, I would not invest in this counter due to the following factors highlighted in this article.

Before reading this review, please check out the articles I have written on Sheng Siong. They would contain my research and insights on this counter.

Due to a request from reader, I am consolidating a series of analysis for Noble Group in 2017. The links to the articles are below and they are unprotected for a limited time. Thereafter, they will be locked up and you need to register as member of SG Wealth Builder to access the premium content.

Do take note that this counter is very risky and novice investors should not attempt to trade it if there is a lack of understanding on the business model. This article is also only for information and not meant to induce or serve as a form of financial advice.

For Noble Group, 2017 will go down in its history as the most dramatic year as the commodity trader engaged in an epic swim-or sink-battle. From management upheaval, to lawsuits involving ex-CEOs, to plunging share price, vicious short-selling attacks, accusations of accounting malpractices, credit ratings downgrades, record earning losses and reported loss of bank support (DBS), Noble Group certainly looked on course to an explosive self-destruction path.

Despite the relentless troubles, Noble Group continued to attract institutional investors’ support. In June, Abu Dhabi’s Goldilocks emerged as surprise major shareholder while China sovereign wealth fund, CIC, remained one of its largest shareholders, with stake of 9.5%.

With Dow Jones on course to hitting 25,000 points, the US stock market is certainly on a bull run. Over in Singapore, the Strait Times Index is not doing too badly either, adding 1.8% for the month of November and bringing its year-to-date dividend inclusive return to 23%, compared to an SGD denominated average returns of 18% for the benchmarks of Australia, Hong Kong and Japan. In this article, I will share my views on the 5 SGX stocks to invest in 2018.

For the past 7 years, I had been sharing my insights and strategies on a number of SGX stocks in this blog. However, two years ago, I have divested all my stock holding to fund the purchase of my new home. In spite of this, I have been analysing selected SGX stocks which I would invest in 2018 once my war chest is built up. On this note, it must be emphasized that I do not have a vested interest in the following SGX stocks. Readers and members must do their own diligence before investing in these counters.

OCBC

I am still beating myself for missing the boat on this one. Since 2016, I have been tracking OCBC when the shares were trading at about $8.00 level.

Have you bought Raffles Medical shares recently? Since my last coverage on this counter on 24 August 2017, the share price of the private healthcare service provider had a 10% correction. What is happening? Should shareholders run for their lives?

To add value to readers, I will share my stock analysis of Raffles Medical Group. Through this, I hope readers will learn how to perform a basic evaluation on stocks and sign up as members of SG Wealth Builder.

Circle of Competence

When it comes to stock investing, the best approach is to invest within your “circle of competence”. This means that you don’t have to be an expert in every company in order to succeed. Instead, invest in an area in which you have a significant knowledge than the rest of investors. For example, if you are a healthcare worker, you are likely to know the trend of the healthcare industry, the market leaders, the demand and supply, and the key developments in the medical field. Thus, it is likely that you would be familiar with Raffles Medical Group and how it has fared in recent years.

But what if you don’t have the circle of competence? Then the risk should be mitigated by the understanding of business model.

Should Starhub investors run for their lives? The month of November had been a dreadful one for Singapore’s number two telecommunication player as its major shareholder, DBS, sold off 900,000 shares, then followed by the shock announcement of CEO Tan Tong Hai who will step down in May 2018. The bad news came swiftly after the announcement of the poor 3Q17 financial results. On the other hand, arch rival SingTel announced a set of smashing good financial results after the divestment of NetLink Trust.

Starhub in crisis?

The announcement of the departure of Tan Tong Hai was indeed surprising, coming at a time when the industry is undergoing a major shake-up. The disruptions caused by technology has led to challenging operating environment faced by all players as many consumers used applications to access overseas calls and short messages. The trend has led to declining revenue from mobile and fixed lines. In the past, IDD call charges and SMS had been cash cows for the telco players. Now, consumers typically use applications to bypass such services.

For Starhub, the decline started many years ago when it lost the monopoly of Pay TV coverage of English Premier League to SingTel in 2009. That was a real turning point and SingTel had really knocked the wind out of Starhub.

BreadTalk Group is a home-grown SGX stock which I have always admired because of its strong brand name and high-quality bakeries. When its founder, George Quek launched the first store in 2000, nobody could have predicted that he would go on to grow the BreadTalk chain store to such extent that it got listed in Singapore Exchange in 2003. Within three years, BreadTalk had become a force to be reckoned with in Singapore market and George had certainly wasted no time in exporting the brand overseas.

Today, BreadTalk operates close to 1,000 outlets across Singapore, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Supported by a global staff strength of 7,000, the stable of brands include BreadTalk, Toast Box, Food Republic and the operating rights to Din Tai Fung restaurants from Taiwan. These are all household names and together, they helped to reinforce BreadTalk business at the global stage.

But behind the scene, George Quek had quietly built up an impressive portfolio of investment portfolio. Over the years, the divestment of these properties had generated a slew of dividends for loyal investors.

For example, in Q1FY16, the management [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only.

Singapore “Big Three” local banks recently announced third quarter 2017 results. Although all three banks suffered from collateral damage arising from loan exposure to the oil and gas sector, the latest results were generally upbeat and data revealed resilient growth for OCBC, DBS and UOB.

Competition continued to be stiff among the banks but growth for all three banks is expected to be positive for the full-year as Singapore economic growth was predicted to exceed 3% for 2017.

OCBC took the lead

Net Performing Assets (NPAs) continued to weigh on the banks’ earning as the ailing oil and gas sector showed no signs of revival. DBS recorded a devastating 25% decline for 3Q17 profit as compared a year ago. Profit stood at $802 million, the worst among its close rivals. The dismal result for DBS was due to the massive allowances of $815 million made, largely for the loan exposure oil and gas sector. This was a huge provision and the amount indicated that the DBS CEO might have grossly underestimated the oil slump.

On the other hand, OCBC smashed in a solid profit of $1.06 billion for 3Q17, 12% above S$943 million a year ago. UOB came in second with profit of $883 million, 12% above a year ago.

In what is believed to be the world largest IPO ever, Saudi Arabia oil company Aramco is seeking to list 5 percent of the company, which is valued at USD2 trillion, in both domestic and international stock markets. The move is part of the plan by the Saudi kingdom to diversify its economy and reduce the reliance on the black gold. International stock exchanges from New York, London, Hong Kong and Singapore have been vying to win the prized trophy of winning the IPO. Can SGX win the game?

To put things in perspective, the chance of Singapore Exchange securing the prestigious secondary listing in SGX is remotely small. The rate of success is probably 5% and I would be extremely surprise if SGX could pull it off. This is because if the intention of Saudi Arabia is to seek an international listing to diversify income, then market size is significant. Logically speaking, the natural choice would be New York, London or Beijing.

In my opinion, the New York Stock Exchange is the most likely destination for the Aramco IPO. London offers the prospect of being the major investment gateway to European market but Brexit had totally changed the game. As for Beijing, the stock exchange is not accessible to foreign investors and for Saudi Arabia to list Aramco there would defeat the purpose of a secondary listing.

Embattled Noble Group firmly had investors on tenterhooks as media reports emerged of DBS bank cutting lending facility and the resignation of co-CEO. The double blows sent share price plunging to $0.198, below the $0.20 critical support level. Considering the fact that there was a 10 into 1 share consolidation done in May 2017, the adjusted share price is actually $0.0198.

Investors who had subscribed to the rights issue in last year would have lost their pants if they had held on to the shares until today.

A week before, the SGX-listed company reported a stunning USD1.17 billion losses for the third quarter. Losses for the nine months ending 30 September 2017 amounted to a scary USD3 billion. Prior to this, investors were already preempted about the gigantic loss on 23 October 2017. Nonetheless, the latest setback sent the shares into a tailspin. Is it really the end of Noble Group?

The frightening aspect of the latest results was the [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only. To read the full content, please sign up as member.]

Read my articles on Noble Group:

1. Nightmare of Noble Group continues
2. Noble Group’s horror show
3. Noble Group new white knight?

SATS is a SGX stock which I have always admired because of its historically strong business performance. The company is a leading provider of gateway services and food solutions, with the major bulk of business mainly in the aviation sector. Recently, the share price of SATS experienced a loss of form. What is the situation? Has the management lost the plot?

Since the announcement of the 1QFY2018 financial results in 21 July 2017, the share price experienced a major bout of decline. From $5.10 to $4.60, there was a drop of almost 10%. Technically, this represented a correction for SATS share price. It is only lately that this counter started to recover and climbed to $4.77 on 3 November 2017.

It appears to me that investors had decided to punish this counter for delivering quarterly profit of $57.3 million in Q1FY2018, a decline of 10.6% compared to prior year. But I think it is not justified because in the previous year, the profit was bolstered by the sale of the Senoko plant, which provided a non-operating gain of $9.3 million.

In fact, SATS performance should be considered resilient because current quarterly results excluded one-off items like disposal of assets. Revenue and operating profit remained flat, at $426.5 million and $53.5 million respectively.

2017 is a milestone year for Jumbo Group as the F&B outfit celebrates its 30^th anniversary. Listed in SGX Catalist only in 2015, Jumbo counts sovereign wealth fund, Temasek Holdings and Osim founder, Ron Sim, among its major shareholders. Temasek Holdings has a stake of 1.24% while Ron Sim holds 10%. With such strong support from institutional investors, is Jumbo Group a safe bet for retail investors and is it worth the effort to invest in this counter?

Share performance

In my last article in December 2016, I wrote that the share price was on bullish form. Indeed, there was a minor bull run which saw Jumbo share price surging to a peak of $0.78 in February 2017. Subsequently, the shares went on a correction mode and tumbled to a low of $0.54. It was only in recent weeks that the share price recovered to $0.60 level.

Despite its share performance, I like the growth story of Jumbo Group. The revenue had been growing consistently from $87.6 million in FY2012 to $136 million in FY2016, demonstrating management’s track record in growing the company. For the 9 months ending in FY2017, the revenue amounted to $106 million. Based on projection, it is likely that total revenue for FY2017 would surpass the previous years.

Festive season is only two months away but for many SPH staff, there is nothing to look forward to nor cheer about this year. Within a month of taking over as the new CEO, Ng Yat Chung announced the shocking decision to accelerate the culling of 10% of its workforce. Originally, the 2016 plan was to carry out the lay-offs over two years. Now, the decision is to bite the bullet and complete the SPH retrenchments by end of this year.

The SPH retrenchments come at a time when the media giant is struggling big time to adapt to the disruptions brought forth by technology. In the latest full year financial report, SPH reported net profit of $350.1 million, 32% higher than last year. But upon delving deeper into the financial results, the performance of the core business (the media segment) was not so rosy after all.

Operating revenue declined 8.2% year-on-year to $1.03 billion. But of more alarm was that the media segment clocked in the worst performance among the business divisions for the operating revenue – a drop of 13%. In terms of profit, the media segment also registered a decrease of a whopping 42% to $114 million due to lower income from the advertisements.

For the longest time, home-grown multinational group, Haw Par share price had been in laggard form. Although the business fundamentals had been consistently good over the years, the share price had been hovering way below its Net Asset Value (NAV) of $12.00. But in 2017, Haw Par share price suddenly came to life and roar ahead to reach a record high of $12.28 recently.

Founded by the Aw brothers in the early 19^th century, Haw Par is well-known for its Tiger Balm oilment products. However, the family business went through a tumultuous period in the 1970s when massive irregularities almost led to a spectacular collapse of the company. The government of Singapore had to intervene and pulled in the late Michael Fam to restore order.

Following the crisis, there was a three-way battle vying for the control of Haw Par between Hong Leong Group, Jack Chia Limited, and United Overseas Bank (UOB) headed by Wee Cho Yaw. In 1981, merger wizard Wee Cho Yaw emerged victory in the fight and the rest is history.

Under the brilliant leadership of Wee Cho Yaw, Haw Par grew from strength to strength and was transformed into a diversified conglomerate with operating business in healthcare, leisure, property and investments.

On 4 October, SIA Engineering Company shares tumbled to 6-year low following news of JP Morgan’ sale. Share price fell in the early morning of trading to $3.15 before recovering to $3.20 level. In my opinion, the correction is long overdue as the business outlook for the MRO giant has considerably dimmed in recent years with the entry-into-service of new aircraft requiring much less maintenance works.

Financial results for 1Q2017/18 revealed that profit declined 82% to $36.2 million. The huge decline was because of the absence of divestment gain in last year (SIA Engineering divested 10% stake in Hong Kong Aero Engine Services Ltd (“HAESL”) to Rolls-Royce Overseas Holdings Limited (“RROH”) and Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company Limited (“HAECO”)).

However, even after excluding the impact of the divestment in the quarter ended 30 June 2016, profit for the current quarter of $36.2 million was $1.8 million or 4.7% lower. Revenue also remained flat, at $272.8 million. Although the results were not exactly that disappointing, they seemed to suggest that SIA Engineering business fundamentals might have peaked.

To be fair to the management, SIA Engineering had tried to engineer growth in view of the challenging operating environment. Last year, SIA Engineering began to [This is a premium article.

The past two years had been of great chaos for SingPost as it endured a significant management upheaval, a special audit, massive impairment of an overseas acquisition and adjustment of a long-standing company dividend policy.  For a country that prides itself of being world-class efficient, the mess in Singapore’s national postman certainly raised a lot of eyebrows among concerned investors.

On looking back, the appointment of Dr Wolfgang Baier as CEO back in 2011 could be a knee-jerk attempt to re-invent the mailing company into an e-commerce company in light of consistently falling revenue from domestic mails. His appointment was itself surprising given his young age and the perceived lack of C-suite experience.

When Wolfgang was appointed as CEO, he was only 37 and was from a management consulting firm, McKinsey & Company. Given SingPost’s venerable standing in the industry, attracting a more experienced business leader should not be a challenge. To be frank, I have no objections to foreign talents taking on top positions in Singapore companies. However, Wolfgang lasted only four years and resigned abruptly in end 2015, leaving Mr Mervyn Lim to cover his CEO duties for one year.

During Wolfgang’s tenure, SingPost had mixed financial performance, with net profit falling from $160 million in 2011 to $141 million in 2013 and then rising to $161 million in 2015.

Suntec REIT share price is enjoying some sort of bullish form in recent months. The share price hit a 2-year high in July after the announcement of a 50% interest in Premium Grade office in Melbourne. However, a look at the recent financial results indicated things may not be so rosy after all for the venerable REIT. Total return for 2Q17 was actually a decrease of 23% compared to last year. So why did the share price rise and is Suntec REIT a value trap?

Suntec REIT portfolio

Being one of the first REITs to be established in Singapore, Suntec REIT was listed on the SGX mainboard on 9 December 2004. Besides having a respectable history, the real estate investment trust also boosts a unique portfolio of properties comprising office and retail spaces.

Suntec REIT owns Suntec City mall and certain office units in Suntec Towers One, Two and Three and the whole of Suntec Towers Four and Five, which form part of the integrated commercial development known as “Suntec City”. The property portfolio also comprises 60.8 per cent effective interest in Suntec Singapore Convention & Exhibition Centre (“Suntec Singapore”), a one-third interest in One Raffles Quay (“ORQ”) and a one-third interest in Marina Bay Financial Centre Towers 1 and 2, and the Marina Bay Link Mall (collectively known as “MBFC Properties”) and 30.0 per cent interest in 9 Penang Road (formerly known as Park Mall).

Since 2008, the shares of home-grown healthcare provider, Raffles Medical Group, went on a rampage bull run, rising from $0.56 to almost $5.00 in 2015. The mighty surge in share price had created much wealth for many of its long-time investors. Recently, the shares came under siege and experienced a serious loss of form.

Against the above backdrop, several readers wrote in to discuss about the outlook for this SGX stock. In this article, I will share some of my views and insights on Raffles Medical.

“I like RMG but, like you, have resisted at prices say 1-2 months ago. It would be really valuable if you could share what you feel a fair value or target price might be?” – Georgie

“Wonderful article! Agree with your point of view on the soundness of Raffles Medical. With reference to your article, I have 2 questions.

1. Is there any particular reason or calculation that led you to the specific target price of $0.80 (or $0.60 in your previous article)? Assuming a similar profit, the PE ratio would be around 20, which is quite low for a healthcare stock, especially for RMG considering its stable growth.
2. Given that the overall global markets seem inflated, and may undergo a correction, would you recommend keeping RMG during the recession (as a defensive stock) or to pull out your investments altogether to hold in cash and bonds?”

mm2 Asia is one of the most exciting prospects to grace Singapore stock market in many years. Within two years of listing in the Catalist, the entertainment outfit has witnessed such explosive growth that it ascended to the SGX mainboard on 7 August 2017. Along the way, it has also attracted investment from StarHub.

In 2014, when the company, through its IR agency, requested me to help them promote free tickets for their Jack Neo’s movie, “Ah Boys to Men”, I didn’t really take notice of this company. Fast forward three years later, the shares had been on a red hot bullish run since IPO.

On 19 May 2017, mm2 Asia announced that the company is in discussions with Village Cinemas Australia Pty Ltd (“Village Cinemas”) for the purchase by the Group of Village Cinemas’ entire stake in Dartina Development Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong which holds the Golden Village Cinema business in Singapore.

However, the transaction did not materialize. According to mm2 Asia, “Village Cinemas Australia was unable to procure fulfilment of certain conditions under the Shareholders Agreement entered into between Village Cinemas Australia and their existing coshareholder of Dartina Development Limited, and the deal could not be completed”.

Being M1 customer, I like its unlimited free calls to three M1 numbers to local voice calls. Because of this innovative product, I have been its customers for many years. This is the power of subscription for a telecommunication company. In fact, mobile subscription is considered the most important investment moat for a telecommunication company because the motivation to switch to another mobile phone carrier is low once a customer subscribed to its data plan. However, as an investor, I would never invest in M1 shares.

From almost $4.00 in 2015, M1’ share price plunged to $1.73 lately. Being the smallest player, M1 faces the biggest risk of shrinking market share with the entry of new competitor, TPG Telecom. To make matter worse, Singapore market is very small and saturated.

According to Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA), the mobile penetration rate in Singapore is about 150%, making Singapore one of the most well-connected countries in the world. This means that some of the subscribers may be using more than one line. Being the smallest player, it is not surprising that outlook for M1 is worrying.

With falling share price, investors may be wondering if it is the right time to buy M1 shares on the cheap.

Can Noble Group turn the tide and weather the storm? The embattled commodity trader is currently fighting for its life as it faces an epic swim-or-sink battle. The latest financial results revealed that the nightmare, which started two years ago, is set to continue.

Once the brightest star in the Singapore stock market, Noble Group market capitalization was worth a mighty $10 billion. In its heyday, it reigned supremacy and was even regarded as the world’s top commodity trader, alongside rival Glencore. For Singapore Exchange (SGX), it was indeed an honor for Noble Group to be listed in Singapore, even though it is a Hong Kong-based company.

The nightmare

Those good old days must be dreamy for investors now as its market capitalization shrank to an alarming $460 million. The rot started two years ago when an unknown financial blogger, Iceberg Research, accused Noble Group of accounting malpractices. That astonishing allegation led to a series of vicious short-selling attacks and precipitated the start of the downfall of Noble Group.

Prior to the release of the latest quarterly results, management has [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only.

Once upon a time, there were three shining forces in Singapore stock market. Osim’s Ron Sim, Creative Technologies’ Sim Wong Hoo and The Hour Glass’ Jannie Chan used to dominate the entrepreneur scene. Together, the trio had won numerous awards for creating outstanding household brands. As a young boy, I have deep admiration for these business pioneers but Jannie Chan stood out among the three of them because of what she had done for The Hour Glass.

The Early Years

In the 80s and 90s, female entrepreneurs were almost unheard of, much less successful female entrepreneurs. The corporate and business community used to be dominated by males. Of course, there were female leaders but they were the exception rather than the norms.

Widely credited for co-founding The Hour Glass, Jannie Chan has been instrumental in building the luxury watch retailer into a SGX-listed company with international presence in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and Malaysia. Therefore, it pains me to read of her current plight because she had been my source of inspiration for several decades. Having achieved so much with The Hour Glass, I thought she deserved more during her twilight years.

In recent years, Jannie Chan had been involved in various legal disputes.

Raffles Medical share price suffered a major correction which saw it dropped to a one-year low of $1.20. After reviewing the latest financial results, I don’t see any major concern on the healthcare provider’s performance. In fact, I think the correction is a healthy one and should not raise any red flag for investors.

The correction in the Raffles Medical Group share price is indeed puzzling given that the Group announced a record quarterly revenue of S$120.1 million in Q2 2017, a 1.0% increase from S$119.0 million in Q2 2016. Net profit after tax attributable to owners of the Company increased by 0.5% from S$16.8 million in Q2 2017 to S$16.7 million in Q2 2016.

Whilst the recent financial result is nothing to shout about, it should not warrant such drastic decline in Raffles Medical share price. The only major concern I can think of should be the high capital expenditure for the China hospital projects. Raffles Medical is building not one, but two hospitals, in China in a bid to expand its investment moat. Construction of the 700-bed RafflesHospital Chongqing and 400-bed RafflesHospital Shanghai is progressing well. These hospitals are targeted to be operational by second half 2018 and second half 2019 respectively.

Ex-CEO of SGX, Magnus Bocker passed away last week due to cancer. Bocker came to Singapore with a big reputation of being a dealmaker. Prior to heading SGX, he made his name for selling OMX to Nasdaq for USD4.9 billion. Bocker took over from outgoing CEO Hsieh Fu Hua in 2009 but left in 2015 when he decided not to renew his contract. In this article, l am sharing my views on whether it is worthwhile to invest in SGX shares.

Under Bocker’s tenure, SGX implemented various initiatives aimed at expanding SGX’s market share beyond the stock market. Notably, revenue from derivatives now formed 40% of the annual revenue.  As a dealmaker, he also tried to transfer his merger and acquisition experience to SGX and made a bid to merge with Australia’s ASX. That bid ended up in failure when the Australian government rejected the proposal.

Bocker’s reign also saw SGX introducing a slew of policies targeted at boosting market liquidity and protecting investor’s interest. In 2014, dynamic circuit breaker was introduced to guard against disorderly situations in the face of rapid and unchecked market movements. In light of the penny stock crash in 2013, Minimum Trading Price (MTP) was introduced by SGX to prevent speculation and market manipulation.

SGX-listed, Hong Kong-based Noble Group warned on Wednesday that it is set to post a devastating loss of USD1.8 billion for the second quarter. The shock loss surpassed the full-year loss of USD 1.6 billion back in 2015 and brought to light the significant challenges faced by the commodity trader.

The market reacted immediately on Thursday morning, with Noble Group share price plunging by as much as 49% to $0.295. The counter recovered to close at $0.395 at the end of the trading day.

Record loss

The amount certainly blew me off and made me blinked twice. USD1.8 billion is a colossal amount of money. We are talking about losing USD1,800 million for one single quarter. Translated into Singapore dollar, that would mean SGD2,400 million. Make no mistake, founder Richard Elman has previously warned that Noble Group is likely to suffer losses until 2019. But nobody could have foreseen losses of such magnitude.

Compared to the second quarter loss, the first quarter loss of USD130 million seemed like peanuts. But the announcement of that loss back in March had bombed out Noble Group stock price. With the gigantic loss in second quarter, the share price is likely to experience another bout of carnage. 

It’s going to be a three-way battle for SingTel, M1 and StarHub as competition intensified with the entry of a new player in the telco industry. Against this backdrop, will SingTel acquire M1 or StarHub? Recent developments in Singapore’s telecommunication industry suggest that such consolidation is only a matter of time for the incumbent players.

With Australia’s TPG winning the fourth telco license in both Australia and Singapore, it is imperative that SingTel take decisive actions to defend market shares. It is now or never for SingTel.

The battle of the giants

With a gigantic market capitalization of $63 billion, SingTel is obviously the leader of the pack and is in pole position to gobble up either of the two smaller players. Among the three existing players, M1 has the smallest market capitalization – $1.75 billion. Since 2015, M1’ share price crashed from a high of $3.96 to $1.88 level. With the current form, M1 could easily fell prey to a hostile takeover.

Incidentally, M1’s substantial shareholders, Keppel Corp and Singapore Press Holding (SPH) are going through hard times as well and they may be tempted to offload their shares in M1 to SingTel. Keppel Corp may want to sell its stakes in M1 and raise capital to focus its fight against the slump in the oil-rig industry.

Is OCBC shares worth $50? Maybe even more. Recently OCBC made waves when it announced the offload of its 33.5% shares in United Engineers (UE) to a consortium led by Yanlord Group and Perennial Real Estate Holdings. The block sale consisted of shares held under OCBC, Great Eastern Holdings and the founding Lee Family. News of the deal propelled OCBC share price to a 5-year high and triggered a mandatory takeover offer for the rest of United Engineers shares.

The United Engineers Deal

The offer price for the UE deal was $2.60 and represented a price-to-book value of about 0.88. The fact that OCBC sold its stake in UE at a price below book value reflected the poor market sentiments. After all, United Engineers is still making healthy profits and is not considered a distressed asset at all. For the record, UE made a profit of $7.1 million in 1Q2017, a decline of 25% from last year. Hence, in my point of view, the block shares sale should have fetched higher price.

For OCBC, the deal would unlock value for shareholders and made business sense as property development is not OCBC’s core business. The sale is worth an estimated $550 million and is a windfall for OCBC.

Since young, I have always enjoyed eating Old Chang Kee’s signature curry puffs. The history of Old Chang Kee, however, goes as far back as 1956 when it was just a small stall in a coffee shop outside former Rex cinema. In 1986, the current chairman, Han Keen Juan bought over the control of the company and subsequently transformed the stall into a listed company.

On looking back, Old Chang Kee is a story of coming of age and its brand is synonymous with Singapore food heritage. With a humble beginning, Han Keen Juan has certainly grown the Old Chang Kee into a household name.

When it was listed in Catalist in 2008, the IPO price was $0.139 and the shares were 111% over-subscribed. Now trading at $0.815, it is time to examine whether investing in the shares is worth the effort.

Fourth quarter loss

The Group was cruising along finely when it was [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only. To read the full content, please sign up as member.]

Read my other articles on SGX stocks:

1. Formidable Challenger for Challenger Technologies Limited
2. The Hour Glass Limited
3. Raffles Medical Group’s Return on Equity

It certainly seems like Judgement Day for SPH as the media conglomerate’s shares plunged to an 8-year low. The share price free fell to $2.95 on 18 July 2017, below the $3.00 support level. During the dark days of the Great Financial Crisis, the lowest trading price was $2.40. But hey, we are not having a major market crisis now, aren’t we?

What’s going on and what’s wrong with SPH? Should investors run for their lives?

Like fellow SGX-listed SingPost, SPH belongs to the old economy. Both are struggling to adapt themselves in the new digital era. Technology has devastating impacts on their businesses as their models are being disrupted by consumers’ lifestyle changes.

For SingPost, most companies are switching to electronic statements instead of traditional postages. Hence, SingPost is now transforming itself into an eCommerce logistics by leveraging on its existing postal networks. Similarly, SPH is facing disruptions from technology as most people switch to digital instead of printed newspaper. This is understandable as who would want to read yesterday’s news when you can receive the latest updates on the breaking news from online or through social media?

But what is shocking for investors was the massive decline seen in SPH’s advertisement revenue.

On 10 July 2017, NetLink NBN Trust registered its final prospectus with Monetary Authority of Singapore, paving the way for the biggest IPO of the year. The offering price is $0.81. Initially, the offering price was estimated by analysts to be between $0.81 and $0.93. The low-end of the offering price could be indication of weak demand from the big boys.

With net asset of $3.07 billion and total units of 3.02 billion, the Net Asset Value (NAV) is about $1.01. Given that the offering price is only $0.81, NetLink NBN Trust IPO is considered surprisingly under-valued. It should be noted that the majority of the assets is the network infrastructure, which are recognised initially at their fair value at the date of acquisition and then depreciated over their remaining useful lives. The estimated remaining useful life for the purposes of calculating depreciation for NLT’s network assets is between 25 and 50 years, depending on the type of assets.

As cited by several local investment bloggers. there are a few risks that investors need to note for NetLink NBN Trust.

First, a few bloggers had mentioned that although NetLink NBN Trust has a monopoly in the residential fibre network, it is tightly regulated by IMDA.