Stocks

Investors should brace for a wild ride as Genting Singapore share price looks set to come under severe pressure due to a series of unforeseen events. In early April 2019, the government of Singapore announced higher casino tax by 2022 and 50% increase in casino entry levies for Singaporeans and PRs effective 4 April 2019. Prior to this, Genting Singapore share price also come under heavy shelling due to sell-offs by major fund houses.

The impact of the tax hike cannot be underestimated. In late 2018, the Malaysia government implemented similar tax hike, causing Genting Berhad share price to tumble to a ten-year low. Although the Singapore casino tax hike will be implemented in three year time, the move will cast a dark shadow on Genting Singapore’s growth outlook and affect confidence in Genting Singapore share price. And confidence means everything in the stock market.

As the saying goes, it never rains but pours. This is certainly the case for Genting Singapore as it shot itself in the foot by announcing a disappointing Q1FY2019 that saw revenue dropping 5% to $640 million and net profit declining 5% to $205 million. Against this backdrop, Genting Singapore share price went on bombshell meltdown, correcting from $1.07 in April to the current $0.88 level.

It seems like SIA share price is destined for an apocalyptic correction. On 16 May 2019, Singapore Airlines reported a record annual revenue of $16.3 billion for FY2018/19. However, net profit collapsed 47.5% to $683 million. Since the announcement of the results, SIA share price went into an epic free-fall to reach the current low of $9.25.

On the basis of the current bearish run, it appears to me that SIA share price is likely to be bearish in the coming weeks. In my opinion, the correction of SIA share price could be an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate this counter. The 5-year beta for SIA share price is only 0.43. This means that while in the short-term, SIA share price can be pretty volatile, in the long run, this counter is actually quite stable. The average 3-month volume is 23 million and Temasek Holdings shareholdings in SIA amounted to 54.9%. Based on this data, SIA should be a good stock to hold for the long-term.

The correction in SIA share price is attributed to the plunge in net profit. However, it is important to put things into context. SIA had an exceptionally good FY2017/18 because oil prices were trading at the range USD45 – 60 per barrel and total fuel costs amounted to $3.9 billion.

What a revelation! On 13 May 2019, after a probe by SGX RegCo, Best World finally revealed that Koh Kim Chuan, the legal representative and shareholder of Changsha Best, is the brother-in-law of the Group’s CEO and Managing Director.  Currently, Best World shares are suspended from trading and hapless investors are once again left high and dry.

In recent years, corporate governance issues had dogged numerous SGX-listed companies like Yuzoo, Noble Group, Midas and the likes. Even blue chips like Keppel Corporation are also not spared (Keppel was fined a whopping $560 million by US authorities in 2018 over corruption scandal). Against this backdrop, I am not surprised if Best World turns out to be yet another falling knife. It seems to be disaster after disaster for SGX-listed companies, to the extent that it is turning out to be a national disgrace. How can Singapore Exchange claim to be “Asian Gateway” when its listed companies keep making headline news for all the wrong reasons?

The meltdown of Best World followed swiftly after the resignation of its non-executive independent director, Chan Soo Sen, on 15 February 2019. To be factual, Best World share price started to spiral out of control on the day of Chan Soo Sen’s resignation announcement.

Sometimes life is stranger than fiction. On paper, Raffles Medical share price should have risen steadily for the past 5 years because of increasing revenue and net profits. For most investors, that would be a reasonable assumption. In reality, Raffles Medical share price plummeted from $1.58 to the current $1.00 level. The massive correction of Raffles Medical share price represented a horrifying 37% decline within the span of three years. The unfolding meltdown of Raffles Medical share price must have scared the living daylight out of investors.

Can Raffles Medical share price ever rock again?

Perennial Real Estate Holdings versus Raffles Medical

My stock analysis of Raffles Medical Group

Sure, many analysts claim that the healthcare is an evergreen sector because of Singapore ageing population and that investors should stay calm. On this note, I do not disagree. In fact, revenue for Raffles Medical increased from $374million in FY2014 to $489million in FY2018. Net profits increased from $67million to $71million during this period. But against the backdrop of such consistently good financial performances, what were the intriguing dark forces behind the rupture of Raffles Medical share price?

Make no mistake, the devastating plunge of Raffles Medical share price would have wiped out whatever meagre dividends that investors collected for the past few years (assuming they had entered at the high of $1.58).

Like many of its peers, CapitaLand share price is volatile because of the cyclical nature of the real estate business. Arising from this, the 5-year beta for this counter is 1.11. In spite of this, I like this counter very much because of its unique business strategies and diversified asset portfolio. Under the founding CEO, Liew Mun Leong, CapitaLand had embarked on a “asset recycling” approach, resulting in the real estate giant deriving majority of its revenue from recurring sources like commercial, retail and serviced residence.

Indeed, CapitaLand investors may think that volatility is undesirable but I view it otherwise. You can make money out of the volatility  of CapitaLand share price, provided if you used the right strategies. Looking at the past four year data, there is a clear pattern concerning the movement of CapitaLand share price.

Hit and run with CapitaLand share price

In October 2014, CapitaLand share price surged from $3.00 to reach a high of $3.75 in April 2015.Subsequently, the counter plunged to a low of $2.80 in September 2015. Following that, CapitaLand share price surge again to reach a high of $3.40 in December 2015. For most of 2016, the stock languished to a low of $3.00 in December 2016.

The data certainly looks grim for SPH share price. 1HFY2019 results revealed that despite aggressive efforts to revive its fortune, SPH revenue and net profits continued to free fall like no tomorrow. This is indeed puzzling because the dismal financial performance came on the back of various recent acquisitions aimed at stimulating growth.

Figtree Grove (85% stake) Shopping Centre in Australia was acquired in December 2018 for A$175million. Then M1 was delisted following the successful acquisition of all the remaining shares from the open market through SPH joint venture with Keppel, Konnectivity. UK Student accommodation portfolio added 380 beds with 2 new acquisitions for $369million. Yet despite all these moves, revenue continued to slide, rupturing the form of SPH share price in the process.

It is really mind-blowing to note that total revenue for 1HFY2019 decreased 5.2% while net profit collapsed 32% to reach $33million. With such result, it takes an ardent fan to be convinced of SPH long-term growth prospect. The disruption of the traditional newsprint business is well-known and everybody knows that SPH had embarked on a transformational journey to digitize its businesses and diversify revenue sources through property investments. But it has been more than 5 years in the work, yet total revenue plunged from $1.2billion in FY2014 to $982million in FY2018.

It’s that “uh-oh” feeling for investors as StarHub share price faces another torrid run following the release of a terrible 1QFY2019 results that saw net profit plummeted by 23% on a year-by-year basis. Investors must be having that sinking feeling again and wondering when will StarHub share price ever see daylight again.

The problem for StarHub share price is that it tends to shoot itself in the foot. In February 2019, StarHub share price corrected from $1.94 to $1.610 following the release of a dismal FY2018 results and the cut in dividends for FY2019. Since then, StarHub share price had struggled to maintain its form. With the latest results, surely the counter will go into yet another tailspin.

Given the latest financial performance, it takes an ardent fan of StarHub to have conviction in StarHub share price. Revenue for mobile, Pay TV and Broadband segments all declined. Cyber security services recorded an impressive 41.4% in revenue but suffered a whopping $11.4million losses in 1QFY2019. Sales from equipment was the only bright spot as revenue surged by 33.3% but the profit margin from this segment is razor thin, thus it cannot be the game-changer for StarHub.

Apart from the disappointing results, investors must be wondering if StarHub would fall into the abyss like Hyflux.

Investors must be wondering if NetLink NBN Trust would do an Asian Pay TV Trust (APTT) or Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) Trust. Both the unit prices of APTT and HPH suffered catastrophic meltdowns in recent years due to declining business fundamentals. Incidentally, Temasek Holdings is a major shareholder in all the three trusts.

Even though both APTT and HPH Trust are favoured by investors for their high yields, the plunge in their unit prices would have offset the returns. Thus, the important lesson for NetLink NBN Trust investors is never judge a trust by its yield. Always make the effort to understand the business fundamentals when investing in equities. While big boys like Temasek Holdings can afford to lose monies in their investments, retail investors surely don’t have such deep pockets.

There are analysts who claimed that NetLink NBN Trust is a low risk counter. But the funny thing is, NetLink NBN Trust never made it to the top ten institutional net buy list for the past one year. This means that for some unknown reasons, fund houses had been giving this trust the cold shoulder. Obviously it is still early days to judge NetLink NBN Trust but let’s take a look at its investment moat and examine the underlying risks.

What a fine performance! DBS Group Holdings share price looks set for another rally following the announcement of a solid Q1FY2019 financial performance. On 22 February 2019, I predicted that DBS Group Holdings share price would be on form because of the strong Net Interest Margin (NIM) performance. Since then, the counter surged from $25 to the current $28.

On the basis of the healthy business momentum, DBS Group Holdings share price is likely to continue its dazzling run, perhaps even reaching the $50 mark. Last year’s remarkable run of DBS Group Holdings share price was punctuated by the shock announcement of the tightening of Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) and Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio on residential property purchases. Nonetheless, it appears to me that DBS had managed to shake off the blues and resume its story.

Another reason for the bullish form of DBS Group Holdings share price is the reduction of allowances and non-performing assets (NPA). This is one major downside risk for DBS Group in recent years because of the ailing oil and gas sector. For Q1FY2019, the allowances was halved, dropping from $164million in Q1FY2018 to $76million FY2019. NPA also decreased from $5.8billion to $5.6billion.

Looking at the latest financial results, I could not find any fault with DBS Group Holdings’ performance.

Will Best World do a Hyflux? Investors of Best World must be horrified as the counter collapsed from a high of $3.30 in February 2019 to the current $1.62. Within the span of two months, Best World share price plunged by more than 50%. Both Best World and Hyflux were founded by female business leaders, namely Doreen Tan and Olivia Lum respectively. Incidentally both are home-grown companies facing some sort of troubles lately. Nonetheless, the similarities ended there. Let’s take a look whether Best World is a falling knife in the making.

For the records, Best World is a Singaporean company that specializes in direct selling and franchising of premium skincare, personal care, nutritional and wellness products. It is definitely not an S-chip company awaiting to implode. Many investors may have this wrong perception probably because of its recent China misadventure. More on that later. What I am emphasizing here is that it is important for investors to have a basic understanding of Best World’s business profile, the unique business model and its competitive edge before making judgements.

What is direct selling and is it considered multi-level marketing (MLM) or pyramid marketing, both of which are illegal in Singapore and China?

White knight? What white knight? Dark days loom ahead for Singapore investment community as Hyflux enters its final chapter of its protracted restructuring process. On 17 April, I wrote that Hyflux is on course for a horror finale. That fateful day, PUB issued a 30-day notice to Tuaspring Pte Ltd (TPL) to terminate the Water Purchase Agreement (WPA) and take over the Tuaspring Desalination Plant (TSDP).

Hyflux saga is so bad its good

Does Hyflux deserve a comeback like OSIM?

SembCorp Industries should invest in Hyflux

The holy water of Hyflux Perpetual Securities

When Hyflux sought bankruptcy protection from the High Court back in February 2018, nobody could have imagined the outcome of today. There were plenty of high hopes as former white knight, SM Investments, had emerged out of nowhere to dangle a $530million rescue mission in late last year. But more than a year later, Hyflux appears to be on course for liquidation following the collapse of the rescue package. It must have been a devastating roller-coaster ride for Hyflux investors.

Hyflux going down in flames?

Evidently, PUB only intended to take over only the desalination plant of Tuaspring. On the other hand, the latest development triggered its largest creditor, Maybank, to terminate the Collaboration Agreement and take over the power plant.

What a finale. What a finale. On 3 April, I wrote that Hyflux saga is so bad that its good. The following day, Olivia Lum confounded investors by announcing the termination of a key restructuring plan with white knight, Salim-Medco consortium SM Investments. Prior to this latest turn of event, Hyflux investors had staged a public protest and planned to vote against the proposed rescue plan. But as the saying goes, Man proposes, God disposes. Apparently, Olivia had the last laugh.

Hyflux in doomsday path?

The latest twist is indeed stunning because Hyflux claimed that it has no confidence in SM Investments in completing the rescue deal and is currently seeking other potential investors. But what is even more bizarre is that Hyflux claimed that PUB’s intention of taking over Tuaspring Desalination Plant without seeking compensation would enable the firm to reach out to a “wider pool of investors”.

Does Hyflux deserve a comeback like OSIM?

SembCorp Industries should invest in Hyflux

The holy water of Hyflux Perpetual Securities

Make no mistake, Tuasping is an integrated plant consisting of both water desalination and gas turbine power plants. Obviously, it makes sense for PUB to take back the Tuaspring Desalination Plant from Hyflux because of water security purposes.

What is a growth stock, a dividend stock and a defensive stock? These terms had often been used in various online articles and can be quite intimidating to investors. Understanding these terms is essential because you may want to buy stocks that fit into your investment strategies and temperament. In this article, I will attempt to explain these terms and use some SGX stocks as examples.

Best SGX stock research campaign

Many Singaporean investors will agree with me that investing in SGX stocks is not a walk in the park. Quite a number of local investors had lost their pants investing in Hyflux, Noble and Midas stocks. Then there were those investors who had lost their monies investing in oil and gas companies facing liquidation issues due to the meltdown of oil prices. And don’t even get me started on the thrashy S-chips that had caused plenty of heart pains for investors. On looking back, the past decade was certainly disaster after disaster for SGX stocks.

Given the spate of investment misadventures, investors can be forgiven for thinking that SGX stocks tend to generate poor returns. To this end, I beg to differ. Stock picking is both an art and science.

In September 2018, I wrote that ThaiBev share price was trading at attractive levels and that represented a good opportunity for accumulation. Since then, ThaiBev share price went on a rampant bull run, surging from $0.60 to the current $0.85. The powerful run represented a whopping 42% increase for ThaiBev share price.

Devastating crash of ThaiBev share price

Given the giddy form of ThaiBev share price, should investors take profit and cash in or hold on with the expectation of further hike in ThaiBev share price? To answer this question, it really depends on your entry and exit levels. If I had entered this counter at $0.60, I would cash in now.

Some readers may say that I have short-term mentality but I don’t really care. A dollar gained is a dollar earned. There are not many SGX-listed stocks that appreciated in value in such short-time, so investors should strive not to be greedy in this sort of market condition. Fundamentally, this counter is a growth stock and therefore, ThaiBev share price is sensitive to its revenue performance.

Certainly, it had been a bitter-sweet journey for ThaiBev investors as ThaiBev share price plummeted following the implementation of a new Excise Tax Act in January 2018.

The unfolding Hyflux saga is like a cheesy Taiwanese drama series – so bad that its good. Why is that so, if you may ask? After all, 34,000 investors had lost their life savings investing in Hyflux preference shares and perpetual securities. In my opinion, there are plenty of important lessons to be learned out of this fiasco. And Hyflux investors had better learn from this episode or it would be like throwing good money after bad.

Does Hyflux deserve a comeback like OSIM?

SembCorp Industries should invest in Hyflux

The holy water of Hyflux Perpetual Securities

From the implosion of Lehman Brothers’ Minibonds in 2009 to the toxic gold buy-back schemes to the outrageous Swiber junk bond defaults, Singapore had witnessed numerous investment tragedies. Some of the investment schemes were so downright ridiculous that you would be surprised many Singaporeans actually bought into them. For sure, Hyflux saga is not the first, but it will not be the last as well. What made this Hyflux saga so intriguing is that investors had not learned the lessons through the years. Many of the Hyflux investors were also previously investors of Minibonds, gold buy-back schemes or Swiber corporate bonds.

To make matters worse, trading of Hyflux shares were halted since last year, giving shareholders no way of running for their lives.

Is it another false dawn in the making or a case of the return of the prodigy? Earlier last year, Creative share price revived from a multi-year deep coma, surging from $1 to an explosive $9 within a week upon the release of its award-winning audio product – Super X-Fi. The resurgent Creative share price indicated a possible comeback for Singapore legendary entrepreneur, Sim Wong Hoo.

Can Creative Technology conquer the world again?

Creative Technology staged “mission impossible” comeback

Recently, my wife bought me a Super X-Fi headphone and I was totally blown away by the technology. Using a sophisticated head and ear-mapping process, Super X-Fi did bring out the 3D audio effects when I used it to play online music from my Samsung mobile phone. The quality of music did feel like I was listening to music from a studio. For the record, this is an honest review and I am not paid to write this review nor am I vested in this counter. In addition, whether Creative share price will rise because of Super X-Fi will have no impact on me.

Despite the tremendous hype over Super X-Fi, it is still early days to hail it as a game-changer that would re-ignite Creative share price.

Since collapsing to a 10-year low in December 2018, SingPost share price managed to crawl its way back to the $1.00 mark. But it seems that the recovery of SingPost share price could be a false dawn in the making as the management dropped a big hint in its recent financial report that a massive impairment to the carrying value of the US businesses is on the way.

Horror show of SingPost shares

For SingPost, impairments are assessed based on the full financial year results. The last time that SingPost recorded significant impairments was in FY2017 which saw SingPost suffered impairment charges of a massive $208.6million for TradeGlobal. The huge impairment charges walloped SingPost share price upside down back then. Thus, SingPost share price could be poised for another challenging time.

The recent revival in SingPost share price should be attributed to the management’s aggressive share buy-backs. As at 21 March 2019, 13.8 million shares were purchased from open market. The share buy-backs provided critical support for SingPost share price, which would have suffered a worse fate given recent spate of toxic news on SingPost.

Taking into consideration the coming “tsunami” and the aggressive share buy-backs, investors of SingPost should brace for a roller-coaster ride and expect plenty of volatility of SingPost share price in the coming months.

The wheels came off the wagon for Jumbo share price as Temasek Holdings, along with several other major shareholders, sold off their stakes in Jumbo Group between 2017 and 2018. The flurry of selling activities saw Jumbo share price collapsing from a high of $0.72 in early 2017 to the current $0.40. Will Jumbo share price ever see daylight?

Listed in SGX Catalist only in 2015, Jumbo share price enjoyed a spell of bullish run between 2015 to 2017. For Jumbo share price, it seemed like the sky was the limit as the counter reached an euphoric high of $0.72. 2017 was supposed to be a milestone year for Jumbo as it celebrated its 30^th anniversary. But in a twist of fate, Jumbo share price spiralled out of control after Temasek Holdings reduced its shareholdings and sold its majority stake to Ron Sim (founder of OSIM) in 2017.

As there are big boys involved in this counter, Jumbo share price is expected to be quite volatile. This is especially so given that the free float is only 22.9%. This means that any movements made by the major shareholders would have significant influence on Jumbo share price.

Jumbo share price in turmoil

As a venture capitalist, Temasek Holdings’ strategy is to invest in high growth companies and exit after a few years.

Trouble come in troops for Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, which reported a set of terrible FY2018 financial results on 22 February 2019. Distribution per unit (DPU) for FY2018 dropped by a whopping 40.4% to 2.05 cents on the back of weakening Indonesian rupiah, new tax regulation and increased total operating expenses. It was certainly a revelation for Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust investors for the past one year!

For those investors who bought Lippo Malls Indonesia Retails Trust at IPO price of $0.80 in 2007 and hold it till now, they would be staring at massive paper losses even if total DPU had been factored in. This is because the unit price has free fell to a dismal level of $0.192.

For sure, it had been a roller-coaster ride for unitholders of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust. But then again, who said that investing in REITs is safe? Should Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust investors throw in the towel or hang on for their dear lives?

Sinking feeling for Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

As if the above is not enough, investors of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust should expect maelstrom for its unit price as parent company, Lippo Karawaci, is unleashing its mall assets to Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust in a bid to raise funds for its Meikarta township project.

SPH investors must be wondering what the hell is happening to SPH share price. For the last couple of years, SPH share price had an astonishing correction, falling from a mighty high of $4.00 in 2016 to the current $2.45 level. It appears to me that FY2018 had been a watershed year which saw SPH recording revenue that fell below the critical $1 billion. That killer blow sent SPH share price reeling to the rock bottom.

Given that SPH share price is in a state of disarray, will the recent takeover of M1 turn the tide for SPH? Should investors run for their lives or buy on the dip?

SPH share price in coma

Looking back, it is not difficult to determine the reason for the bearish SPH share price as revenue continuously fell from $1.17 billion in FY2015 to $982 million in FY2018. Even the change of CEO in FY2017 did not manage to halt the decline in business fundamentals nor revive the ailing SPH share price performance. The rot continued for SPH share price and apparently, the management has not found a way to get out of the rut.

At times, SPH did look like a lost boy in the jungle as it struggled to fight gravity and find its way out of the maze.

In 2013, Singtel was trumped by Telenor and Ooredoo in its telco licensing bid in Myanmar, one of the world’s last untapped mobile market. The doomed attempt illustrated the perennial challenge that Singtel faces in its overseas expansion against the backdrop of growing competition in the Southeast Asia region. Nevertheless, not many would agree with the management expansion plan as Singtel share price stuttered following Moody’s revision of Singtel outlook to “negative”.

Although Moody’s lowered Singtel’s outlook, it affirmed Singtel senior unsecured ratings of A1. Moody’s has also affirmed the (P)A1 rating on the Euro Medium Term Notes programme as well as the A1 rating on all notes issued by Singtel Group Treasury. Despite so, Singtel share price wobbled slightly, dropping from $3.00 on 5 March 2019 to the current $2.95.

While Moody’s assessment of Singtel is clearly damning, Singtel shot itself in the foot by delivering a set of Q3FY2019 results that fell short of many analyst estimates. Most business units reported declining profits on year-on-year basis. To make matters worse, the latest results marked the fifth consecutive quarter of declining profits. As a result, the management took a rare step to issue a statement that “Singtel remains financially disciplined and committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit ratings”, presumably to defend Singtel share price.

With 590 awards under its belt, Changi Airport is obviously the pride of our nation. In this regard, recent market talks of a potential Changi Airport REIT certainly set the market on fire. It also comes at a time when Singapore government is pondering how to best fund the huge infrastructure spending in the coming years without straining our nation‘s budget.

If the proposed listing really does materialize, Changi Airport REIT would not only raise much needed funds to pay for the construction costs of Terminal 5 and Changi East Development, but also increases liquidity for SGX, which has seen a dearth of blockbuster IPOs in recent years.

For the local bourse, the lack of game-changing IPOs has almost reached borderline hysterical level. Thus, SGX CEO Loh Boon Chye is surely going to fight tooth and nail for the IPO of Changi Airport REIT. In recent years, Singapore has been losing its appeal in terms of IPO listings to Hong Kong, which has a formidable hinterland in China.

The problem for SGX is further exacerbated with the slew of privatization of large cap companies like SMRT, Keppel Land, Tiger Airways, OSIM and Neptune Orient Lines. In a couple of weeks, M1 will join this list following the successful exit offer from Keppel and SPH.

The recent Hyflux saga must have brought much publicity for Indonesia conglomerate Salim Group, which had emerged as a surprising white knight for the embattled Hyflux. However, Salim Group already made waves in Singapore back in 2006 when it joined forces with SembCorp Industries to list Gallant Venture in Sesdaq (the predecessor of Catalist). The major restructuring brought 16 different companies together under the umbrella of Gallant Venture and saw Sembcorp Industries rationalising its industrial park and leisure investments on the Indonesian Riau Islands through Gallant Venture.

Today, Gallant Venture is an investment holding company with five major business segments – Automotive, Utilities, Resort Operations, Property Development and Industrial Parks. With such diversified business activities, understanding Gallant Venture is certainly not easy. As a matter of fact, Gallant Venture is no longer just an infrastructure developer-cum-operator located in Bintan because it now derives most of its revenue from its automotive business.

With a market capitalization of $693 million, Gallant Venture is a mid-size cap in Singapore Exchange. Salim Group, through Parallax Venture Partners XXX Ltd, is a major shareholder with 55.02% stake while Temasek Holdings, through SembCorp Industries, holds 10.4%. With two big boys behind Gallant Venture, what is the prospect for Gallant Venture, which has seen its share price plunging to heart-stopping levels in recent years?

Is it the light at end of tunnel or another false dawn in the making for Golden Agri share price? As a palm oil plantation owner based in Indonesia, Golden Agri share price destiny is closely intertwined with the crude palm oil (CPO) price, which has collapsed for the past few years. Recent resurgent in CPO led many investors to believe that recovery of Golden Agri share price is on the way. But is this really the case or is it a bobby trap awaiting investors?

To put things into perspective, the only predictability of Golden Agri share price is its unpredictability. Against the backdrop of declining commodity prices, Golden Agri share price had been pretty volatile in 2018. To make matter worse, Indonesia rupiah plunged in 2018 as a result of rising US dollar, roiling Golden Agri’s businesses in the process. The challenging operating environment led to Golden Agri to record its first annual losses in 10 years.

To rub salt into wound, arch rival Wilmar posted a net profit of USD1.27 billion for full-year FY2018. Given the wretched performance of Golden Agri, should investors run for their lives or keep faith with the management? In this article, I will share my insights on the growth prospect of this palm oil producer.

From $3.00 in 2009 to $14 in 2018, Haw Par share price enjoyed one of the most incredible bull runs in Singapore Exchange as it surged more than four fold within the span of a decade. The berserk run of Haw Par share price certainly created much wealth for long-time investors but its bullish run seemed to hit the skid for the past one year. What has changed that caused the malaise form of Haw Par share price? Since my last coverage on this counter in 2017, Haw Par share price continued to amaze me with its adventure.

Unknown to many investors, this counter is actually a proxy for UOB share price. This is because Haw Par Corp holds 73 million UOB shares under its Investments segment. If investors observed Haw Par share price carefully, it would mirror exactly that of UOB share price for the past 3 years. For example, Haw Par share price increased from $7.50 in February 2016 to a high of $14 in May 2018. Likewise, UOB share price increased from $17.20 in February 2016 to a high of $30 in May 2018.

While UOB share frequently enjoys the limelight because of its status as one of the leading Straits Times Index, Haw Par shares had somehow been under the radar for years.

UOB investors must be dumbfounded. Among the three local banks, DBS share price was the only counter to rise following the release of a stellar full-year 2018 financial result. On the other hand, OCBC share price self-destructed because of declining profit for Q4. But the case is rather bizarre for UOB because UOB share price actually tanked from $26 on 21 February to a low of $25 on 28 February after delivering increasing Q4 and full year 2018 profit.

Perhaps the imperious form of DBS business performance had overshadowed UOB’s. Nevertheless, UOB investors should not be disappointed by UOB share price performance because they should be heartened by UOB’s improving net interest margin of 1.82%. Return on Equity stormed to a high of 11.3% from 10.2% last year.

To celebrate the feat, UOB announced a final dividend of 50 cents per ordinary share, and a special dividend of 20 cents. Together with the interim dividend of 50 cents, the total dividend for the financial year ended 31 December 2018 amounts to $1.20 cents per ordinary share, an increase of 20% over last year. Inclusive of the special dividend, this represents a pay-out ratio of approximately 50%. The special dividend would help to offset the dampener from the cooling UOB share price.

What a downer! In a month in which most investors expect local banks to announce rosy financial results, OCBC dropped the bombshell of a less-than-flattering Q4 performance. In a twist of event, OCBC share price got bombed out after delivering a lower Q4 net profit of 11% at $926 million. The surprise culprit for the disastrous performance was OCBC’s flagship subsidiary – Great Eastern Holdings, which announced a stunning 30% drop in net profit.

Of course, one quarterly result does not define OCBC share price but OCBC management team was left absolutely red-faced as DBS and UOB both announced increasing profits of 8% and 7% respectively for the fourth quarter. Certainly, investors wasted no time in punishing OCBC share price. OCBC share price went into goofy mode, falling from $11.60 on 21 February 2019 to $11.30 on 25 February 2019.

While OCBC share price got walloped by lower contributions from its insurance subsidiary, its core banking operations delivered a robust performance which saw it growing 22% from a year ago to $817 million. Net interest income increased 9% year-on-year to $5.89 billion from $5.42 billion in FY17. Customer loans grew 9% to S$258 billion across all key markets. Based on these data, investors should not panic over OCBC share price and should instead stay calm.

Crisis? What crisis? DBS Group Holdings rubbished all talks of impending economic crisis by staging yet another blockbuster performance – net profit surged 28% to a record $5.63 billion. Total income increased 11% to $13.2 billion from loan and fee income growth. Despite the continued business momentum, DBS Group Holdings share price suffered an embarrassing loss of form throughout 2018. On this note, would DBS Group Holdings return to winning form in 2019?

Return of DBS Group Holdings share price

From a high of $30.80 in May 2018, DBS Group Holdings share price suffered a stunning meltdown to a low of $22.80 in October 2018. Following that 26% correction, DBS Group Holdings share price never really recovered. Many investors may be waiting at the sidelines and adopting a wait-and-see approach as a result of the shares volatility.

Notwithstanding the volatility in the share price, it certainly seemed that the strong US market blew away any lingering doubts on the growth prospect of DBS Group Holdings, which had seized the opportunity to grow its loans to 6% to $345 billion against the backdrop of rising interest rate hikes. Net interest margin increased 10 basis points to 1.85% with higher interest rates in Singapore and Hong Kong.

StarHub CEO, Peter Kaliaropoulos must be feeling the heat again. On 18 February 2019, StarHub share price plunged to a 14-year low of $1.61. The last time that StarHub share price was trading at such disgraceful level was in 2005. The trigger for the massive sell-offs was obviously the dismal Q4FY2018. Following the announcement, investors wasted no time in punishing this counter, sending StarHub share price to rock bottom.

It seems that honeymoon period is over for the StarHub CEO. Following his appointment on 9 July 2018, StarHub share price enjoyed a brief respite and even managed to halt its horrendous slump. Then the announcement of Keppel and SPH buy-over of M1 shares had led to a resurgent StarHub share price in September 2018. Investors had speculated that a potential privatization of M1 could lead to lower competition for StarHub.

But reality started to sink in and investors soon realize that the previous rebound of StarHub share price was a mere false dawn in the making. The headwinds remained the same while business fundamentals continued to decline. In fact, full-year results for FY2018 saw StarHub reporting the worst revenue and net income in five years – $2.36 billion and $201 million respectively.

What a perfect storm for Singtel share price. Singtel share price is set to face reality once more as the telco announced a set of disastrous Q3FY2019 financial results which saw most business units reporting declining profits. Net profit declined 14% to $823 million due to increased competition in India. In my last article on Singtel share price, I predicted that this counter would enter 2019 in bad shape. Indeed, Singtel share price plunged to $2.86 on 3 January 2019 and only recently recovered to the $3.00 level. However, the recent financial results would likely roil Singtel share price again.

It appears to me that Singtel share price is set for a roller coaster ride as the Q3FY2019 results fell short of many analyst estimates. Most business units reported declining profits on year-on-year basis. To make matters worse, the latest results marked the fifth consecutive quarter of declining profits. The last time that Singtel recorded an improving quarter of profit was when it sold off majority stake in NetLink Trust. And that was in 2017.

Investors would note that Singtel share price has been bearish in recent months. Nonetheless, the M1 general offer had led to a mini-recovery for Singtel share price because many observers deemed that the industry consolidation would benefit Singtel.