Month: July 2018

Singapore Airlines’ CEO Goh Choon Phong should be at a loss for words. Days after collecting the prestigious Skytrax’s World Best Airline Award for the fourth time, the CEO must be watching in horror as SIA share price plunged by as much as 5.5% on 27 July 2018, presumably due to the poor Q1FY18/19 financial results.

The poor financial results came on the back of announcements of integration of SIA Cargo and SilkAir into parent airline and merger of Tiger Airways and Scoot. Despite the extensive restructuring exercise among its subsidiaries, it certainly seems that there was not much improvement in resource synergies, revenue growth or even cost reduction. What a wasted effort indeed!

Wretched performance

As the saying goes, one man’s poison is another’s meat. While oil and gas companies like Keppel and Sembcorp had been struggling in the aftermath of the oil price’s collapse, SIA share price had been flying high, surging from $9.80 in early 2017 to as high as $11.56 in May this year. But the magical form of SIA share price is as good as it gets as recent uptick in crude oil prices returned to haunt the premium airline.

The reason for the gravity defying performance of SIA share price was because of low fuel cost in 2017.

From almost $14 in early May, OCBC share price rolled off the cliff to languish at $11.30 in July. The steep decline came on the back of an extraordinary bull run that saw OCBC share price surging from $7.90 in February 2016 to reach the giddy high of $14 this year. When a stock has this sort of ridiculous form, it is only fair to expect a healthy correction. After all, what goes up must surely come down.

But at the back of many investors’ mind must be who are the dark forces responsible for the recent meltdown of OCBC share price. As a retail investor, you must figure this out because you don’t want to be caught with your pants down when the big boys strike.

Based on the data collected, there were two groups of big boys influencing OCBC share price in the months of May, June and July 2018 – the short-sellers and institutional funds. Both groups combined to knock the wind out of OCBC share price.

Of course, OCBC shares wasn’t the only stock suffering from meltdown in recent months. DBS, UOB and SingTel shares also went through poor form lately. But against the backdrop of the big boys’ movements, what are the chances of OCBC share price regaining its mojo?

26 July 2018 would be destiny day for SingTel share price as it will be ex-dividend day for shareholders to be entitled to the final dividend of $0.107. All eyes are on that day as shareholders brace themselves for a frightening roller-coaster ride of SingTel share price.

There had been much talks on the impending entry of the fourth telco, TPG Telecom and the emerging threats of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO). People are concerned that these threats would demolish SingTel share price and knock it off the cliff. But to be frank, the current bearish sentiments of SingTel share price should be due to the heightened competition in overseas markets, and not Singapore market. So investors should not make a mountain out of a mole.

Nonetheless, it is not going to be smooth sailing for SingTel and I anticipate a rough ride for this Singapore blue chip. In light of recent developments, this article will share the reasons for the decline of SingTel share price and why this counter could possibly correct to $2.60 by year end. In this article, I am also going to reveal how the big boys combined to wipe off billions from SingTel share price.

DBS share price to storm back in style or is it the start of a protracted nightmare? Under the frenzy attacks by short-sellers, DBS share price went into a tailspin, falling from a high of $30 in April to a low of $25.50 in July. The devastating decline prompted DBS to launch a rare shares buyback on 6 July 2018. For the record, the last shares buybacks by DBS was almost two years ago, in September 2016.

6 July 2018 would be remembered as Black Friday for local bank and property stocks as Singapore government sent the market into chaos with the announcement of additional property cooling measures. DBS stock retreated by 2.6% on that fateful day.

DBS share price is closely watched by many investors in Singapore because it is the biggest cap and is also the crown jewel of Temasek Holdings. Being the bellwether of the economy, bank stocks are typically sensitive to the economy and DBS share price would largely reflect market confidence of the state of Singapore’s economy.

After an incredible bull run that saw DBS share price smashing past the $30 mark, this counter is at a cross road with the recent onslaught of short-selling attacks and the stunning property cooling measures.

It was supposed to be an opportunity for NetLink NBN Trust to make a statement about its investment merits to Singapore investors. But unfortunately, NetLink NBN Trust messed it up by delivering a subpar revenue performance for FP2018 that was much lower than original forecast.

And investors did not take the above too kindly. Upon the release of the financial results, unit price of NetLink NBN Trust tumbled from $0.81 in May to $0.74 in July. The price correction led to dividend yield at an attractive level of 5.65%.

Against the current backdrop, is NetLink NBN Trust a value trap or dividend yield play? In this article, I will examine the competitive advantages and handicaps of NetLink NBN Trust.

Missed opportunity

Time really flies. It had been one year when NetLink NBN Trust debut in Singapore Exchange and I do think that it is timely for an update on this business trust. Dubbed as the biggest IPO since 2011, many investors have great expectation of NetLink NBN Trust. And rightly so. After all, it is the sole provider of residential fibre network in Singapore. Given such status, it is rightful to assume that NetLink NBN Trust enjoys an unassailable monopoly in the fibre network sector locally.

Since my last coverage on Noble Group in December 2017, things have taken a turn for the worse. In fact, the on-going drama is so bad that its good. Why is there any good out of this corporate tragedy if you may ask? In my opinion, there are plenty of hard lessons that investors can gain from the downfall of Noble Group.

From a former multi-billion blue chip darling as recent as 2015, Noble Group has shrunk to a mere $188 million listed company. Novice investors who are new to the game should avoid this counter if they are not unaware of the series of events that had unfolded on this counter. Indeed, there had been so many twists and turns to the Noble Group drama that one wonders if the latest alliance between Goldilocks and Noble Group is just another false dawn in the making.

Due to the volatility of Noble Group share price, existing shareholders should exercise caution on whether to dollar average their holdings or cut losses.  This article is only for information and not meant to induce or serve as a form of financial advice.

Holding shareholders to ransom?

In my last coverage, I highlighted the credit crunch that Noble Group was facing.

Amid the sea of red in the Singapore stock market, Mapletree Logistics Trust shares bucked the trend and stood out like a shining beacon. The bullish form of Mapletree Logistics Trust shares could be attributed to its recent $778 million acquisitions of five ramp-up logistics warehouses from CWT Pte Ltd.

The move by Mapletree Logistics Trust raised a lot of eyebrows because it was made against the backdrop of warehouses supply glut and falling rental prices in Singapore. According to 4Q2017 data released by JTC, the number of available warehouses increased quarterly by 2% to 10.4 million sqm while vacancy rate decreased slightly by 1.6%. Correspondingly, rental prices remained weak in 4Q2017, decreasing by 1.0%.

On the other hand, the mega deal also saw Mapletree Logistics Trust one-upped on local rival Cache Logistics Trust, a ramp-up logistics warehouse specialist. The latter’s competitive strength lies in ramp-up warehouses, which are limited in supply in Singapore because specialised planning and design specifications are required for such properties. The entry of Mapletree in this niche is an unwanted competition for Cache.

Opportunistic acquisitions by Mapletree Logistics?

Investors of Cache Logistics Trust must have seen red with the acquisition. This is because all the five warehouses were previously under Cache’s Right of First Refusal granted by CWT.

After suffering from heavy shelling for the past few weeks, SingTel stock recovered from multi-year low of $3.02 to climb to $3.24 on 10 July 2018. The latest technical rebound of SingTel stock must have left investors wondering if this blue chip has indeed bottomed out. Before rejoicing, it is important to note that the big boys, namely the institutional funds had been targeting SingTel stock for the past two months.

According to Singapore Exchange (SGX) Institutional Fund Flow Monthly report, the month of May saw institutional investors net sold an epic $1.10 billion worth of Singapore stocks.

I could be wrong but I do not recall the outflow of such magnitude from Singapore stock market in recent years, apart from the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. The net selling by institutional players continued through June, with institutional net selling $257 million worth of Singapore stocks.

A more chilling revelation in the reports is that SingTel had been targeted by the big boys as SingTel stock had consistently topped the net seller lists since December 2017. In this article, I am going to show you how the big boys play the game and why you must avoid collision path with the big boys because there can only be one outcome.

Could it be the straw that broke the camel’s back? Despite the challenging operating conditions and the toxic loans from the ailing oil and gas industry, UOB stock had an enthralling fairy-tale run, surging from $17.20 in 2016 to $30 in 2018. It certainly seemed that nothing can stop the explosive form of UOB stock price, until the recent short-selling activities and property measures halted the majestic run.

Meltdown of UOB stock

6 July 2018 would be remembered as Black Friday for local bank and property stocks as Singapore government sent the market into a devastating tailspin with the announcement of additional property cooling measures. There was chaos in the stock market as bank and property stocks suffered from carnage. Among the three bank stocks, UOB stock fared the worst, plunging by as much as 3%. DBS stock retreated by 2.6% while OCBC shares fell by 2.2%.

On the basis of the underlying business structure, UOB stock looks set for a terrifying ride with the property cooling measures. Unlike DBS and OCBC, UOB stock is considered a major proxy for property play.

This is because in his heydays, UOB Chairman Emeritus Wee Cho Yaw had meticulously built a massive billion dollars property-cum-banking empire, through UOB, UOL, UIC and Haw Par Corporation.

After leading DBS to achieve a record net profit of $1.52 billion for first-quarter 2018, CEO Piyush Gupta must be at a loss for words on the recent meltdown of DBS share price. From 30 April to 4 July, DBS share price plummeted from a record $31 to $26.38, a massive decline of 14.4%.

The sudden loss of form for DBS share price must have scared the living daylights out of shareholders. After all, DBS share price had been cruising along fine with its robust set of financial results. Nonetheless, the current performance of DBS share price is not reflective of underlying business fundamentals because as far as I understand, there are no business concerns for DBS at all. The culprit for the fall of DBS share price should be the work of the short-sellers.

Should shareholders run for their lives or keep faith with CEO Piyush Gupta?

Dance with the wolves

The current meltdown is one of the biggest declines in my recent memory of DBS share price. The last time that a correction of such magnitude was back in 2009, the dark days of the Great Financial Crisis and 2016, the peak of the oil slump affecting the banks.

Within two months, OCBC share price fell off the cliff, dropping from almost $14 to $11.50. Such correction is healthy as OCBC share price had been on a spellbinding berserk run since 2017. Thus, investors should not be alarmed by the recent decline in OCBC share price. But at the back of investors’ mind must be whether OCBC share price will return to form with the impending Great Eastern Malaysia divestment. Does the current OCBC share price represent value for money or is it another value trap?

In relation to a query from a reader, many investors may be interested to know the fair value of OCBC share price. To be honest, answering this question is never easy for OCBC shares because the bank holds numerous non-core bank assets that are yet to be, or may even not be, divested in the near future.

Furthermore, even if a counter is trading at its fair value, it may not represent a golden opportunity for investors to buy on the dip. For retail investors, they must be wary of the movement of the short-sellers. You certainly don’t want to be caught off-guarded by the flipping of the whales. In recent months, OCBC share price had been hurt by short-selling activities.