Is Noble Group doomed?

By now, investors of Noble Group must be feeling jaded. Investing in this SGX-listed commodities trader has been challenging with the wild swing in share prices in recent months. The roller coaster ride was a result of various key developments taking place within a short span of time. So, is Noble Group really doomed?

The past two years had been a scary nightmare for Noble Group as the group was initially criticized by research house, Iceberg Research, over its accounting practice. The negative report unexpectedly led to ferocious short-selling attacks and caused the share price to plunge to frightening new lows.

As the management fend off the relentless attacks, former CEO Yusuf Alireza resigned in May and Chairman Elman announced that he would step down within 12 months. To make things worse, Noble Group announced a record loss of USD 1.6 billion for 2015, its first loss in almost 20 years. Many investors feared the worst for Noble Group.

stock investing

In my previous article, I wrote an analysis of Noble Group and determined an entry price of $0.12 which provided me a level in which I would feel comfortable to invest in. Honestly, in my point of view, it is unlikely that Noble Group will fold because of its long history of strong backing from China’s sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp (CIC). But the rights issue, coupled with the debt obligations, made me feel that Noble Group share price was grossly inflated. Despite this, many readers were cynical and rubbish the idea that Noble Group share price would ever revert to the $0.12 level.

Previously I have written several articles on this stock. Readers may want to check out the following posts:

  1. Will Noble Group do an OSIM or Swiber?
  2. White Knight for Noble Group
  3. May Day for Noble Group!
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Is The Singapore Stock Market Healthy? A Billionaire Speaks Out

Billionaire investor, Paul Tudor Jones, has a stark message for fellow investors in Singapore. Years of low-interest rates, avers the legendary macro trader, have bloated stock valuations to a level not experienced in the country since 2000. He states that it happened before the tumble of the Nasdaq, which stood at 75% over a period of more than two years. He argues that such a value of the stock market in relation to the status of the economy should be a cause of concern for investors.

stock market

Hedge fund warning

Jones was speaking at a Goldman Sachs Asset Management closed-door conference, as revealed by people privy to the meeting. The billionaire investor was voicing what many hedge fund and financial managers, including companies such as CMC Markets, have been warning other investors in Singapore. Stock trading has hit unsustainable levels. However, not many of them can be as explicit as Jones, predicting a major market tumble by year end.

Just last week, Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partner, admitted that he expected an early fall this summer – or a significant correction. Another entrepreneur, Philip Yang, seems to agree with Minerd. Yang, who has been running Willowbridge Associates since 1988, foresees a stock plunge of between 20% and 40%. Larry Fink of BlackRock Inc. predicts an up to 10% if the current earnings are anything to go by.

But the grim view of the future isn’t widespread. A few financial managers have suffered for raising the red flag as the eight-year substantial equity continued to march forward.

The warning signs

However, there is no lack of warning signs: US stocks are now 2% below the all-time high experienced on March 1. The S&P 500 index is currently trading at about 22 times earnings, the highest in the last ten years.

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Learning to learn is a key part of how we manage our lives on a daily basis. Most of us tend to view learning as academic but it actually can be the way we live our lives. In essential, learning also means making the effort to develop self-leadership and knowing more about the people around you.

Recently, I had some really frustrating moments at home and faced challenges in parenting. I had been losing my cool and yelling at my kids when they misbehaved. At the rate it is going, my approach is not going to be healthy for my family’s physical health, mental health and emotional well-being. So I am making the effort to change. After all, as a wealth builder and being the head of the household, it is important for me to develop self-leadership so that I can be effective role model for my children. To improve the situation, the change has to start from myself.

Previously, I have shared with readers on my family’s wealth journey. Feel free to read the articles again:

  1. My family’s wealth journey
  2. SG Wealth Builder’s journey
  3. Build wealth with property

I found the guiding light in Dr George Kohlrieser who spoke at the inaugural lecture of the Lifelong Learning Council’s World Speaker Series held earlier this month. There are important life lessons that can be gleaned from his speech and so I am sharing the learning points with my readers. I also hope that in years to come, my children will read this article and appreciate the journey I am going through.


Better version of yourself

Learning is about how we deal with the good things and bad things. An interesting sharing from Dr Kohlrieser was how the late South African leader, Nelson Mandela, emerged from prison after 27 years during …

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SingTel shares to rocket on NetLink Trust IPO?

When Kimly Group, a local coffee shop chain, was listed in Catalist a couple of months ago, it generated much interests among investors and local finance bloggers. With a market capitalization of only $288 million, Kimly Group does not fall in the league of the big boy category nor the blockbuster type of listing that SGX mainboard should be gunning. In this regard, all eyes must be on the mouth-watering NetLink Trust IPO.

To put things into perspective, if SGX’s strategy was to sell itself as “Asian Gateway”, then it must seriously start to attract billion dollar listings. Aircraft lessor, BOC Aviation, which is based in Singapore and used to be owned by Singapore Airlines, has previously given SGX the snub. The lessor chose to list in Hong Kong instead. It was a massive blow for SGX as the company is estimated to be worth a whopping $6 billion.

Then again, with a slew of privatisations taking place, SGX management has more pressing issues to settle than attracting billion dollar listings. Among the many delisted companies, homegrown OSIM applies for listing in Hong Kong as V3 just months after exit from Singapore stock market. This shock move should be a wake-up call for SGX and something drastic should be done to stem the decline.

Stock investing

NetLink Trust will certainly fit the profile of listing that SGX should be aiming for. NetLink Trust is an associate of SingTel which announced in February that it is hiring three banks to advise on the impending NetLink Trust IPO. The move is due to the April 2018 deadline set by Singapore authority which requires SingTel to divest its stake in NetLink to below 25 percent. During the briefing, CEO Ms Chua Sock Koong did not reveal the size of the proposed offering. However, analysts estimated …

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The Gift of Life

Over the years, I noted a significant change in the social behavior among Singaporeans. We have become more cynical and developed a tendency to politicize issues in our daily lives. The mood has changed to the extent that I feel that we have lost the appreciation of the gift of life.

Being the most expensive city in the world, it is true that many of us struggle to make a living in Singapore. But then again, everyone encounters struggles in their lives as well. Nobody is born into this world without any struggles, worries or challenges. If you are able-bodied and is in the pink of health, consider yourself to be very lucky and do count your blessing.

Health is an incredibly important asset that is often being overlooked and under-appreciated. We start to cherish health only when we are about to lose it. This should not be the case. In fact, to be alive and able to enjoy the gift of life is a form of privilege. We should not abuse this privilege. Instead, we should always strive to identify the abundance of opportunities when we are healthy and make the best out of them.


Then and now

In my point of view, the major source of our discontentment can be attributed to our desire for more material comforts. Unlike the Pioneer Generation and the Baby Boomers, this generation of Singaporeans have not endured the horrors of World War II nor the hardships of the post-war era. In short, we have not experienced tough times that our forefathers had endured. When compared to them, we do not understand what it’s like to be physically hungry, penniless, illiterate, homeless, critically-ill and no access to clean water. We also do not have to live in constant fear of being tortured, robbed …

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Current Estimated Potential (CEP) in Singapore Civil Service

In respond to public perception that the civil service placed too much emphasis on paper qualifications, the Public Service Division (PSD) announced that the civil service has stopped grouping its officers according to their education levels since 1st January 2017. This is a good move because it means that our civil servants will be judged based on their work performance rather than their academic results. This article will discuss the Current Estimated Potential (CEP) in Singapore Civil Service.

According to preliminary data from Ministry of Manpower (MOM), 16,600 workers were retrenched in Singapore in 2016. This is a record high since 2009, the peak of the Great Financial Crisis. With retrenchment so prevalent nowadays, job security is certainly at the top of many Singapore employees’ mind. Long considered an iron rice bowl, a job in the civil service is highly sought after because of the perceived high pay and work-life balance.


Nonetheless, you must have the right mentality in order to join the civil service. Money is important but if that is your primary motivation, then this may not be the best place for you. After all, the civil service is non-profit driven organization and career progression hinged largely on several key factors – readiness to take on more responsibilities, vacancies, performance and CEP.

CEP is devised by Shell to assess their employees’ leadership potential. This appraisal system has since been adopted by our civil service to groom leaders. Essentially, this system determines the highest job responsibility level an officer is capable of handling in the future.


Thus, when an officer [This is a premium article. The rest of the content is blocked and can be accessible by SG Wealth Builder Members only. To read the full content, please sign up as member.]

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