SingPost share price set to roil big time again?

Since collapsing to a 10-year low in December 2018, SingPost share price managed to crawl its way back to the $1.00 mark. But it seems that the recovery of SingPost share price could be a false dawn in the making as the management dropped a big hint in its recent financial report that a massive impairment to the carrying value of the US businesses is on the way.

Horror show of SingPost shares

For SingPost, impairments are assessed based on the full financial year results. The last time that SingPost recorded significant impairments was in FY2017 which saw SingPost suffered impairment charges of a massive $208.6million for TradeGlobal. The huge impairment charges walloped SingPost share price upside down back then. Thus, SingPost share price could be poised for another challenging time.

SingPost share price

The recent revival in SingPost share price should be attributed to the management’s aggressive share buy-backs. As at 21 March 2019, 13.8 million shares were purchased from open market. The share buy-backs provided critical support for SingPost share price, which would have suffered a worse fate given recent spate of toxic news on SingPost.

Taking into consideration the coming “tsunami” and the aggressive share buy-backs, investors of SingPost should brace for a roller-coaster ride and expect plenty of volatility of SingPost share price in the coming months. Nonetheless, investors should not panic over the swings in SingPost share price because SingPost has a solid balance sheet and strong operating cash flow. The business fundamentals are still sound and it is certainly not all “doom and gloom” for SingPost share price. The key to staying calm is to adopt a long-term view for this counter.

Nightmare form of SingPost share price

Obviously, long-time investor of SingPost must be wondering if SingPost share price can ever see light at the end …

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Jumbo share price went mumbo jumbo after Temasek Holdings’ sell-off

The wheels came off the wagon for Jumbo share price as Temasek Holdings, along with several other major shareholders, sold off their stakes in Jumbo Group between 2017 and 2018. The flurry of selling activities saw Jumbo share price collapsing from a high of $0.72 in early 2017 to the current $0.40. Will Jumbo share price ever see daylight?

Listed in SGX Catalist only in 2015, Jumbo share price enjoyed a spell of bullish run between 2015 to 2017. For Jumbo share price, it seemed like the sky was the limit as the counter reached an euphoric high of $0.72. 2017 was supposed to be a milestone year for Jumbo as it celebrated its 30th anniversary. But in a twist of fate, Jumbo share price spiralled out of control after Temasek Holdings reduced its shareholdings and sold its majority stake to Ron Sim (founder of OSIM) in 2017.

Jumbo share price

As there are big boys involved in this counter, Jumbo share price is expected to be quite volatile. This is especially so given that the free float is only 22.9%. This means that any movements made by the major shareholders would have significant influence on Jumbo share price.

Jumbo share price in turmoil

As a venture capitalist, Temasek Holdings’ strategy is to invest in high growth companies and exit after a few years. Of course, Temasek Holdings do have long-term stakes in companies such as DBS, Singtel, CapitaLand, Tencent, Alibaba, etc. But these are strategic investments with enormous market scales and tremendous growth potential. While Jumbo Group do have growth potential, its revenue and profit seemed to have stalled in recent years. Thus, part of the reason for the decline in Jumbo share price could be attributed to the declining business fundamentals.

The turmoil of Jumbo share price certainly left a …

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Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust in dark chapter

Trouble come in troops for Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, which reported a set of terrible FY2018 financial results on 22 February 2019. Distribution per unit (DPU) for FY2018 dropped by a whopping 40.4% to 2.05 cents on the back of weakening Indonesian rupiah, new tax regulation and increased total operating expenses. It was certainly a revelation for Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust investors for the past one year!

For those investors who bought Lippo Malls Indonesia Retails Trust at IPO price of $0.80 in 2007 and hold it till now, they would be staring at massive paper losses even if total DPU had been factored in. This is because the unit price has free fell to a dismal level of $0.192.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

For sure, it had been a roller-coaster ride for unitholders of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust. But then again, who said that investing in REITs is safe? Should Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust investors throw in the towel or hang on for their dear lives?

Sinking feeling for Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

As if the above is not enough, investors of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust should expect maelstrom for its unit price as parent company, Lippo Karawaci, is unleashing its mall assets to Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust in a bid to raise funds for its Meikarta township project.

On 12 March 2019, Lippo Karawaci announced a stunning USD1billion funding aimed at strengthening balance sheet and paring down debts. USD280million is expected to be raised from asset divestment plans. Now, investors must be wondering what’s that got to do with Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust?

Plenty. Because On 11 March 2019, Lippo Karawaci entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement with Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust to which Lippo Karawaci would sell the retail components …

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SPH share price in need of Tongkat Ali

SPH investors must be wondering what the hell is happening to SPH share price. For the last couple of years, SPH share price had an astonishing correction, falling from a mighty high of $4.00 in 2016 to the current $2.45 level. It appears to me that FY2018 had been a watershed year which saw SPH recording revenue that fell below the critical $1 billion. That killer blow sent SPH share price reeling to the rock bottom.

Given that SPH share price is in a state of disarray, will the recent takeover of M1 turn the tide for SPH? Should investors run for their lives or buy on the dip?

SPH share price

SPH share price in coma

Looking back, it is not difficult to determine the reason for the bearish SPH share price as revenue continuously fell from $1.17 billion in FY2015 to $982 million in FY2018. Even the change of CEO in FY2017 did not manage to halt the decline in business fundamentals nor revive the ailing SPH share price performance. The rot continued for SPH share price and apparently, the management has not found a way to get out of the rut.

At times, SPH did look like a lost boy in the jungle as it struggled to fight gravity and find its way out of the maze. Its several attempts to diversify revenue source do smell like borderline desperation as some of its acquisitions had been outright bizarre buys that do not really fit in with their core businesses. Notable strange investments were the UK student housing business, pre-school centre (MindChamps) and an old folk home (Orange Valley).

Understandably, the new businesses are part of SPH’s transformation initiatives and I do not expect them to yield profits in the medium term. But what is puzzling to note is that the …

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Singtel share price in turmoil

In 2013, Singtel was trumped by Telenor and Ooredoo in its telco licensing bid in Myanmar, one of the world’s last untapped mobile market. The doomed attempt illustrated the perennial challenge that Singtel faces in its overseas expansion against the backdrop of growing competition in the Southeast Asia region. Nevertheless, not many would agree with the management expansion plan as Singtel share price stuttered following Moody’s revision of Singtel outlook to “negative”.

Although Moody’s lowered Singtel’s outlook, it affirmed Singtel senior unsecured ratings of A1. Moody’s has also affirmed the (P)A1 rating on the Euro Medium Term Notes programme as well as the A1 rating on all notes issued by Singtel Group Treasury. Despite so, Singtel share price wobbled slightly, dropping from $3.00 on 5 March 2019 to the current $2.95.

Singtel share price

While Moody’s assessment of Singtel is clearly damning, Singtel shot itself in the foot by delivering a set of Q3FY2019 results that fell short of many analyst estimates. Most business units reported declining profits on year-on-year basis. To make matters worse, the latest results marked the fifth consecutive quarter of declining profits. As a result, the management took a rare step to issue a statement that “Singtel remains financially disciplined and committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit ratings”, presumably to defend Singtel share price.

It certainly seems like a perfect storm for Singtel share price but should investors panic and run for their lives? In this article, I will share my insights on Singtel share price.

Singtel share price ready to roil?

If investors look back, Singtel share price started the year in bad shape as the counter sunk into multi-years low of $2.86. Yet only in April 2015, Singtel share price was trading at $4.40. A combination of factors, such as entry of MVNOs, TPG Telecom and technology …

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Changi Airport REIT and Liew Mun Leong

With 590 awards under its belt, Changi Airport is obviously the pride of our nation. In this regard, recent market talks of a potential Changi Airport REIT certainly set the market on fire. It also comes at a time when Singapore government is pondering how to best fund the huge infrastructure spending in the coming years without straining our nation‘s budget.

If the proposed listing really does materialize, Changi Airport REIT would not only raise much needed funds to pay for the construction costs of Terminal 5 and Changi East Development, but also increases liquidity for SGX, which has seen a dearth of blockbuster IPOs in recent years.

Changi Airport Reit

For the local bourse, the lack of game-changing IPOs has almost reached borderline hysterical level. Thus, SGX CEO Loh Boon Chye is surely going to fight tooth and nail for the IPO of Changi Airport REIT. In recent years, Singapore has been losing its appeal in terms of IPO listings to Hong Kong, which has a formidable hinterland in China.

The problem for SGX is further exacerbated with the slew of privatization of large cap companies like SMRT, Keppel Land, Tiger Airways, OSIM and Neptune Orient Lines. In a couple of weeks, M1 will join this list following the successful exit offer from Keppel and SPH.

Changi Airport chairman Liew Mun Leong

But of course, in life, Man proposes, God disposes. While SGX and investors crave for the IPO of Changi Airport REIT, whether it will materialize is beyond their control. A lot will depend on whether Singapore government is willing to cede partial control of Changi Airport to foreign stakeholders. Make no mistake, even though Changi Airport went through corporatization in 2009, it still come under the ownership of Ministry of Finance, and not Temasek Holdings. For the Changi Airport REIT …

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Gallant Venture in misadventure with Temasek Holdings

The recent Hyflux saga must have brought much publicity for Indonesia conglomerate Salim Group, which had emerged as a surprising white knight for the embattled Hyflux. However, Salim Group already made waves in Singapore back in 2006 when it joined forces with SembCorp Industries to list Gallant Venture in Sesdaq (the predecessor of Catalist). The major restructuring brought 16 different companies together under the umbrella of Gallant Venture and saw Sembcorp Industries rationalising its industrial park and leisure investments on the Indonesian Riau Islands through Gallant Venture.

Today, Gallant Venture is an investment holding company with five major business segments – Automotive, Utilities, Resort Operations, Property Development and Industrial Parks. With such diversified business activities, understanding Gallant Venture is certainly not easy. As a matter of fact, Gallant Venture is no longer just an infrastructure developer-cum-operator located in Bintan because it now derives most of its revenue from its automotive business.

Gallant Venture

With a market capitalization of $693 million, Gallant Venture is a mid-size cap in Singapore Exchange. Salim Group, through Parallax Venture Partners XXX Ltd, is a major shareholder with 55.02% stake while Temasek Holdings, through SembCorp Industries, holds 10.4%. With two big boys behind Gallant Venture, what is the prospect for Gallant Venture, which has seen its share price plunging to heart-stopping levels in recent years? Read on to find out the intriguing story of Gallant Venture.

Gallant Venture braving the storms

Through the years, Temasek Holdings had pared down its stake in Gallant Venture, starting from 650 million shares in 2006 to the current 555 million shares. And for good reasons too. Gallant Venture share price started off brightly upon IPO in 2006, surging from $0.47 to $1.50 within six months. The good share price performance was supported by good business performance (net profit was $30 million in …

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Golden Agri share price in false dawn?

Is it the light at end of tunnel or another false dawn in the making for Golden Agri share price? As a palm oil plantation owner based in Indonesia, Golden Agri share price destiny is closely intertwined with the crude palm oil (CPO) price, which has collapsed for the past few years. Recent resurgent in CPO led many investors to believe that recovery of Golden Agri share price is on the way. But is this really the case or is it a bobby trap awaiting investors?

To put things into perspective, the only predictability of Golden Agri share price is its unpredictability. Against the backdrop of declining commodity prices, Golden Agri share price had been pretty volatile in 2018. To make matter worse, Indonesia rupiah plunged in 2018 as a result of rising US dollar, roiling Golden Agri’s businesses in the process. The challenging operating environment led to Golden Agri to record its first annual losses in 10 years.

Golden Agri share price

To rub salt into wound, arch rival Wilmar posted a net profit of USD1.27 billion for full-year FY2018. Given the wretched performance of Golden Agri, should investors run for their lives or keep faith with the management? In this article, I will share my insights on the growth prospect of this palm oil producer.

Golden Agri share price at cross-roads

Despite the woes and the collapse of Golden Agri share price (it was trading at $0.60 in 2014), what riled investors was the lack of share buybacks by the management for the past few years. The last share buyback was conducted in April 2015, which was almost four years ago. So for those who think that Golden Agri share price is currently undervalued, you might want to think twice before entering this counter (Net asset value stood at USD0.33, below the …

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Haw Par share price danced with UOB

From $3.00 in 2009 to $14 in 2018, Haw Par share price enjoyed one of the most incredible bull runs in Singapore Exchange as it surged more than four fold within the span of a decade. The berserk run of Haw Par share price certainly created much wealth for long-time investors but its bullish run seemed to hit the skid for the past one year. What has changed that caused the malaise form of Haw Par share price? Since my last coverage on this counter in 2017, Haw Par share price continued to amaze me with its adventure.

Unknown to many investors, this counter is actually a proxy for UOB share price. This is because Haw Par Corp holds 73 million UOB shares under its Investments segment. If investors observed Haw Par share price carefully, it would mirror exactly that of UOB share price for the past 3 years. For example, Haw Par share price increased from $7.50 in February 2016 to a high of $14 in May 2018. Likewise, UOB share price increased from $17.20 in February 2016 to a high of $30 in May 2018.

Haw Par share price

While UOB share frequently enjoys the limelight because of its status as one of the leading Straits Times Index, Haw Par shares had somehow been under the radar for years. Looking through the data, the big boys had not bothered to short sell this counter. To top it off, even institutional funds had been giving Haw Par shares the cold shoulder. Currently trading at Price/Book Value of 1 and Price/Earning ratio of 15.7, is Haw Par share price a value trap or hidden gem? What is the narrative for Haw Par share price?

Haw Par share price to roar with special dividend?

Singapore will mark its bicentennial year in 2019. Likewise for …

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Demolition of UOB share price left investors scratching heads

UOB investors must be dumbfounded. Among the three local banks, DBS share price was the only counter to rise following the release of a stellar full-year 2018 financial result. On the other hand, OCBC share price self-destructed because of declining profit for Q4. But the case is rather bizarre for UOB because UOB share price actually tanked from $26 on 21 February to a low of $25 on 28 February after delivering increasing Q4 and full year 2018 profit.

Perhaps the imperious form of DBS business performance had overshadowed UOB’s. Nevertheless, UOB investors should not be disappointed by UOB share price performance because they should be heartened by UOB’s improving net interest margin of 1.82%. Return on Equity stormed to a high of 11.3% from 10.2% last year.

UOB share price

To celebrate the feat, UOB announced a final dividend of 50 cents per ordinary share, and a special dividend of 20 cents. Together with the interim dividend of 50 cents, the total dividend for the financial year ended 31 December 2018 amounts to $1.20 cents per ordinary share, an increase of 20% over last year. Inclusive of the special dividend, this represents a pay-out ratio of approximately 50%. The special dividend would help to offset the dampener from the cooling UOB share price.

As usual, the big boys had a part in the movement of UOB share price. Notwithstanding the good financial result, short sellers are apparently punishing UOB share price based on two issues. In this article, I will share my insights on the short selling activities and institution fund flows on UOB share.

Volatile UOB share price

On looking back, between the late November and December 2018, UOB share price experienced some sort of bottoming out as weekly short selling volume peaked at 2.2 million (26 – 30 November 2018), …

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