Month: December 2018

Can SingPost share be your ticket to financial freedom or is it a value trap in the making? Perennially seen as a dividend counter, SingPost stock should have many supporters. But reality started to sink in for investors as SingPost share price plunged to a 10-year low recently.

On 28 December 2018, SingPost share price was trading at the level of $0.90, a complete disaster as the counter saw a massive correction of almost 30% since the start of the year. Indeed, the devastating spell of run for SingPost share price must be giving investors plenty of sleepless nights.

Defending SingPost share price

A reassuring note to SingPost investors is that the management religiously conduct share buy-backs throughout the year. Since January 2018, a series of share buy-backs saw the treasury shares rising from 9.3 million to 21 million in December 2018. The share buy-backs had provided much support for SingPost share price, which could have suffered a worse form if not for the share repurchases. Obviously, the case for SingPost share price is not unique as numerous counters were affected by the recent market sell-offs. But for SingPost, the correction started long time ago. In January 2015, the shares were trading at a sky-high of $2.14.

On 26 December 2018, SPH share price plunged to a record low of $2.33, a terrifying level not seen even during the dark days of The Great Financial Crisis in 2009. Given the devastating spell of run, investors must be sweating whether to run for their lives or buy on the dip.

And then there may be investors who are tempted to enter this counter on the premise that this could be a value stock in the making. For this group of investors, they must realize that fundamentally, SPH don’t make money from selling newspapers.

Traditionally, the media giant derives its revenue from selling advertising spaces. In this regard, the emerging challenges posed by social media and digital platforms are giving SPH a serious run for its monies. For SPH, revenue from print advertisements had been declining for the last few years. On this basis, whether SPH can stay relevant in this new digital economy would really depend on management’s execution in transforming its businesses to embrace digitisation. It is now or never. For sure, the management is not fighting fire with fire. Rather, the strategy is to diversify revenue sources, with a focus in property investments. I guess as an institution, SPH carries the burden of promoting literacy among Singaporeans.

Apparently, the fierce winter has lasted longer than expected as SingTel share price hit the skids. On 17 December 2018, SingTel share price plunged to an outrageous 7-year low. The last time that SingTel shares were trading at such price level was in 2011.

In my previous article on this counter, I predicted SingTel share price to nose-dive to $2.60. While this nightmare scenario has not materialized (yet), the current SingTel share price bring little cheers for investors.

It has been an awful year for investors as SingTel share price suffered an explosive 19% correction since the start of the year. The rapid decline caught many analysts and investors by surprise. On the basis of the current run, it seems certain that this counter would enter 2019 in bad shape.

SingTel share price see red!

All hell broke loose for SingTel share price after the announcement of 1H results which saw SingTel recording a massive drop of 60% in net profits. Excluding the divestment of NetLink Trust in 2017, underlying net profit fell 21%, due mainly to lower contributions from Airtel and Telkomsel, and a stronger Singapore dollar against the regional and Australian currencies. With such a report card, investors wasted no time in punishing the stock.

When Alibaba Group got listed in NYSE in 2014, the IPO was considered an earth-shattering event among investment community. At that point, the market valued the e-commerce conglomerate at a staggering USD231 billion. While many investors salivated at the massive prospect of Alibaba Group, it is important to pay attention to the downside risks as well.

With a name based on legendary folklore, Alibaba Group’s rise to global prominence is nothing short of fairy-tale. Widely touted as the China’s answer to Amazon, can Jack Ma’s team fulfil their destiny?

A whole new world

Indeed, Alibaba Group share price didn’t fail to live up to its initial hype, surging from strength to strength to reach the incredible height of USD210 in June 2018. Back then, the sky is really the limit for this e-commerce giant as investors cheered the berserk run of Alibaba Group share price. Immense wealth has been created and many people became insanely rich overnight as Alibaba Group share price stormed to unchartered waters.

The recent trade war between United States and China has installed some form of sanity on Alibaba Group share price. But then again, will this trade dispute be able to hold the leash on the charging form of Alibaba Group share price for long?

Investors of City Developments Limited (CDL) can be forgiven for punching the wall. From a high of $13.50 in March 2018, CDL share price collapsed to the current dismal level of $8.23. Out of nowhere, CDL share price suffered a devastating train wreck, causing many investors to lose their pants. What has gone wrong with this leading light of SGX?

As one of the biggest real estate developers in Singapore, CDL share price has withstood the test of time and has weathered numerous property cycles through the decades. This time, I am absolutely convinced it will be no different. With market capitalization of $7.6 billion, CDL is certainly one of the largest components among the prestigious Straits Times Index (STI). This means that CDL share price is extremely prone to fluctuations because short-sellers are likely to target the shares when Singapore property outlook turns sour. The 5-year beta of 1.125 vindicates CDL share price volatility. Of course, you can make money out of this stock but in my opinion, CDL share price remains an enigma to me.

If you look back, CDL share price went on a spell-binding bull run in 2017, surging from $8.30 in January 2017 to almost $13.00 in December 2017.

It is a battle that Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg can ill-afford to lose. In July 2018, Facebook share price suffered a brutal decline, falling from USD218 to USD172. The devastating plunge of Facebook share price wiped out at least USD140 billion market capitalization from Facebook’s valuation. The frightening meltdown was largely attributed to its poor Q2 earnings and also a series of bad news. Since then, Facebook share price never looked back, continuing to roll down the slope.

For a social media giant like Facebook, its stock performance will always be measured by revenue growth. Indeed, for Q2’18, the revenue was an impressive 43% increase year-on-year. Thus, widespread concerns over its slowing growth had been grossly misplaced and blown out of proportion. For Q3’18, Facebook continued to achieve great revenue growth, recording 33% increase year-on-year.

Apart from its outstanding earning performance, another significant investment merit of Facebook is that it has zero long-term debts. For a technology company, this is indeed a very unique advantage because it does not need to leverage to fund its growth and investors do not need to worry about insolvency issues for Facebook. To put the icing on the cake, Facebook’s business is also very cash generative, with free cash flow (FCF) of USD 4.1 billion and cash and cash equivalent of USD 9.6 billion in Q3’18.

Crisis? What crisis? In a year in which numerous SGX blue chips retreated to multi-year lows, Sheng Siong share price defied gravity and went on a rampant bullish form. The surprise form of Sheng Siong share price confounded many critics, including myself. How did the management achieve such feat against the backdrop of market correction?

Since IPO price of $0.33 in 2011, Sheng Siong share price had been surging in recent years and even smashed a record high of $1.18 in August 2018. The selling point for Sheng Siong is that it does not have any debts and the business model generates much cash flow. These drivers caused Sheng Siong share price to be immune to market uncertainties. Given the bullish form, should investors enter this counter or is it a value trap to avoid?

In response to my previous article, “From pork seller to CEO of Sheng Siong”, a member wrote an insightful view of Sheng Siong. I found his perspective refreshing and therefore decided to publish his reply (with his consent). In this article, I will also provide some updates and views in relation to the member’s reply.

Member’s view on Sheng Siong share price

Would it be the case that NTUC Fairprice and Dairy Farm are pricing their products at a premium increasingly and Sheng Siong seems to be more “co-operative”?

As the year-end festive season approaches, investors of Singapore Airlines (SIA) have little to cheer about as SIA share price plunged to epic low of $9.17 on 30 October 2018. The last times that SIA share price was traded at such abysmal level were during the 2001’s terrorist attacks in United States and 2003’s SARS outbreak. Both events were black swan events that affected the industry immensely and changed the aviation landscape forever. But hey we are not having any crisis now, aren’t we?

As one of the major components among the prestigious Straits Times Index (STI), SIA is one of the biggest blue chips in the stock market. But investing in this leading light of SGX is not so straightforward as challenging operating environment and industry shifts make this stock highly unpredictable.

Given that SIA is the pride of our nation, can investors really sleep well with its stock? Are there any dark forces behind the recent meltdown of SIA share price? In this article, I will share my insights on the prospects for SIA share price and also explain why the ROE has always been terribly low.

Big boys fled SIA shares?

A review of market data on institutional funds revealed an ominous trend for SIA share price.

On 4 December 2018, Dow Jones crashed 800 points due to concerns over the intriguing trade wars between United States and China. The devastating decline in Dow Jones wiped off billion of dollars from the stock market as investors ran for their lives. Evidently, the spectre of a recession looms large, casting a dark shadow on Wall Street as investors are not convinced of the trade tariffs ceasefire.

The latest stock market rout came as Dow Jones emerged from a black October in 2018 which saw Dow Jones plummeted from 26,800 to 24,400. The massive decline of Dow Jones must have freaked out investors new to the game. But then again, it is important to note that Dow Jones had one of the longest bull runs in stock market history, surging from 7,000 points in 2009 to a high of 26,600 in January 2018.

Obviously, what goes up must come down. Investors must brace themselves for such corrections and avoid making rash moves that could result in losses. Indeed, it turns out that 2018 is a year of revelation as Dow Jones had experienced serious bouts of corrections.

On 5 February 2018, US Dow Jones plunged nearly 1,200 points, the biggest single-day decline on record.

Is this the best window of opportunity to enter First REIT? The unit price of the health-care service provider had taken a severe knock after crashing 16% from 15 to 20 November 2018. Such devastating decline is unheard of among S-REITs and perhaps, illustrated a strange dark chapter for First REIT.

For sure, First REIT is widely regarded as one of the most established S-REITs and possesses a proven track record of solid distributions. First REIT was listed on the SGX mainboard on 11 December 2006. Since IPO, the unit price of First REIT had experienced an explosive bull run, surging from an IPO price of $0.53 to a peak of $1.47 in 2015.

Even with the recent correction, long-term investors should be laughing all the way to the bank because of the mighty unit price appreciation and the long history of distributions paid out.

Notwithstanding the above, many investors should be having difficulty sleeping well at night as unfolding events threaten to derail the growth prospects for First REIT. Out of nowhere, First REIT unit price suffered an unexpected train wreck. Should investors start running for their lives? Or should investors stay put and hope for a windfall from a potential fire sale by major shareholder, Lippo Karawaci?