Month: November 2018

Despite being hailed as the world largest listed rubber supply chain manager, Halcyon Agri is ironically seldom covered by stock analysts in Singapore. In recent years, the company had experienced quite a massive transformation that saw them being acquired by China big boy, Sinochem. As a result, total revenue rocketed from $635 million in FY2014 to an amazing $2.66 billion in FY2017. Nonetheless, Halcyon Agri share price suffered a serious loss of form recently. What on earth has happened?

In investing, the key to winning is investing in companies with top market positions because you would want to invest in companies with competitive advantages and investment moats. Halcyon Agri has certainly positioned itself well by becoming the biggest listed rubber supply chain manager. But this does not mean that this counter is low-risk. On the contrary, the volatility of Halcyon Agri share price had been giving investors plenty of sleepless nights in 2018.

As a commodity supply chain player, Halcyon Agri share price can be vulnerable to the volatility of commodity prices. What this means is that market timing is important. So, you must set appropriate entry and exit strategies to avoid losing your pants.

Profile of Halcyon Agri

Halcyon Agri’s business model is unique because it not only procures raw natural rubber from smallholders to feed their processing facilities, the company also owns about 122,000 hectares of rubber plantations in West Africa and Malaysia.

From a high of $1.86 in early 2018, PRC-based Yanlord share price suffered a severe decline to reach a startling low of $1.29. The crash of Yanlord share price is particularly mystifying given that it came on the back of a consistently solid financial results over the last 5 years.

Is the current Yanlord share price reflecting the true value of the real estate company or is the God of Wealth playing a trick on investors? To be frank, the issue facing Yanlord is not company-specific. Rather, the whole S-chip industry is currently suffering from a crisis of confidence among investors.

Loss of faith in S-chips

The lack of confidence in S-chips is not new and has been a well-known recurring problem in Singapore stock market for the past decade. It had been a devastating period of time as investors had lost much wealth when errant S-chips either went into financial difficulties or were “creative” in their accounting. As a matter of fact, the SGX Watch-list is littered with so many dead S-chips while there were cases of S-chips embroiled in corporate scandals.

Recent move by SGX regulators to require new S-chips to have cornerstone investors or state-owned enterprise brings cold comfort to investors as well.

Golden Agri Resources holds a special place in my heart. This is the only blue chip which I tried to trade and subsequently lost $1200 in a single day more than 10 years ago. I can still remember that raw feeling when cutting losses on this counter. At the end of the day, I knew that I had made a mistake and decided to move on. Incidentally, Golden Agri Resources share price hit a low of 10 year recently. So I decided to initiate a review on this palm oil producer.

On looking back, losing money in stocks is never a good feeling but I had gained a lot of valuable lessons. Firstly, I had mentioned that there is no such a thing as good or bad stocks because in life, there are only flawed or right strategies.

At that point of time, I suffered losses on Golden Agri Resources because I had not done sufficient homework. I had failed to see that Golden Agri Resources operate in a cyclical industry and the shares are therefore prone to volatility. If I had held on the stock for a few more years, I would have enjoyed substantial capital gain because Golden Agri Resources share price had ridden on the wave of high crude oil prices and surged to new highs.

Call it sheer madness or whatsoever. Within the span of two days, Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) share price plunged by nearly 50%. Investors with weaker hearts might have suffered serious heart attacks watching in horror at the meltdown of Asian Pay Television (APTT) share price. After all, you don’t often get to see value of business trusts being eroded by so much in a matter of days. Well, that’s investing in SGX stocks for you.

In my previous article, Asian Pay Television Trust dances with the wolves, I wrote that investors should “hope for the best but expect the worst”. I was also bearish on this counter as I was not convinced that the management had the ability to turn around the trust. My view was that the unit price would come under further pressure. Recent Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) share price vindicated my thesis.

As the saying goes, cheap things don’t come good and good things don’t come cheap. When a business trust is trading at such abysmal level, the price level may not represent value. There are investors who insisted on accumulating more units of Asian Pay Television Trust instead of cutting losses. Well, they had better be sure of what they are buying into.

Another day, another market correction. The recent stock market performance must have freaked out many investors new to the game. Long-term investors and financial bloggers should be having great difficulties sleeping well at night as their stock portfolio plunged in value. Should stock investors run for their lives and turn to bonds like Frasers Property Bond and CapitaMall Bond?

In the pursuit of investment returns, many had ignored the age-old wisdom of wealth diversification. In this article, the investment merits of retail bonds (Frasers Property Bond and CapitaMall Bond) and government-linked bonds are discussed.

Dark side of bonds

Most wealth builders dismiss bond investing because of the perceived low yields and illiquidity. Furthermore, investing in bonds is less exciting than stocks, which is comparatively more dynamic. In my perspective, I am not a big fan of bonds either because I am currently at the asset accumulation life-stage. However, as a fixed-income asset, bonds could offer a viable form of financial instrument, especially for retirement planning purposes.

In 2018, Temasek Holdings decided to join in the fun by offering the Astrea IV Private Equity Bond (4.35%) and the Temasek Retail Bond with 2.7% interest. The difference between the two is that the former is not guaranteed by Temasek Holdings or its subsidiaries while the latter is guaranteed by Temasek Holdings.

The past is history and the future remain a mystery. Would Sembcorp Marine continue to fulfil its destiny as the world no.2 oil rig builder or would it collapse in style? Sembcorp Marine share price is set for a roller-coaster ride as the company faces yet another explosive full-year loss for FY2018. The last time Sembcorp Marine reported an annual loss was in FY2015, which saw it recording a massive loss of $289 million.

For sure, the winter had lasted longer than expected. It has been four years since Sembcorp Marine share price was trading at $4.00. Currently trading at $1.66, Sembcorp Marine share price is a shadow of its former self.

Although Sembcorp Marine is operating in a cyclical industry, there is no guarantee that the share price would restore to its heyday form. Should investors throw in the towel or keep faith with the management? In my view, I fear the worst for Sembcorp Marine share price if things do not improve in the coming quarters because of its grim financial data. In this regard, investors should brace themselves for a potential meltdown of Sembcorp Marine share price.

A whole new world

On looking back, 2018 has proven to be another false dawn for Sembcorp Marine as recovering oil price has not revived the global demand for new oil rigs.