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OCBC Bank Global Equities Outlook

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The following coverage is from OCBC Bank Investment Seminar conducted on 9 July 2013.

Are the Economic Clouds Lifting?
We remain positive on the U.S. as the recovery continues to gain traction, with consumer spending and the housing market lifted by monetary stimulus. Although the rebound in manufacturing remains modest, the economy appears to be gradually getting back on its feet.

In Japan, exports will be the main growth driver in the short term, and movement is already evident. In turn, this is boosting industrial production as firms expand to meet foreign demand. In the latest BOJ Tankan survey, manufacturer confidence spiked, and firms expect September to be the best month in five years.

Europe is making some progress toward reducing imbalances and strengthening the financial system, but it is a slow process. Policy-makers also seem to be reassessing the focus on deficit reduction in favour of a more pro-growth stance, which should bolster the region’s economies.

Recovery keeps U.S. Market Upbeat
The U.S. stock market outlook remains upbeat over the medium term, with greater policy clarity and arecovery gaining traction, although modest. The U.S. looks brighter for investors than any other region of the world in terms of risk/reward trade-off.

The Japanese market is encouraging for up to 12 months. Beyond that, investors will want to see ‘Abenomics’ producing evidence that the recovery can be sustained.

From a negative outlook, we have become neutral on Europe because some of the dark clouds are lifting. Investors could be attracted by inexpensive stock valuations.

Prospects are less certain for Asia, where a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China has put currencies, equity and bond markets under pressure.

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Updated: December 27, 2014 — 4:24 pm

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